The intensifying US-Iran standoff is emerging as a major diplomatic challenge for India, thrusting the nation into uncharted territory, says Lisa Curtis, ex-White House South Asia director. Speaking candidly, Curtis detailed how ongoing US military actions against Iran threaten India’s vital oil imports from the Middle East, exacerbating economic vulnerabilities.
‘Oil supply disruptions are hitting India hardest,’ Curtis stated in the interview. As a top importer of Middle Eastern crude, New Delhi grapples with volatile prices that could derail growth projections and fuel inflation.
A poignant example: the US attacked an Iranian ship right after joining an India-led multinational naval drill. This timing has sown seeds of discord, complicating India’s position as it navigates expectations of a stable, rules-based global system led by America.
‘India views the US as a responsible power committed to open seas,’ Curtis explained. ‘But these moves undermine that framework.’ Seeking equilibrium, India weighs its enduring links with Tehran against burgeoning US ties in trade and security.
Echoing sentiments from allies like Japan and Australia, India prefers de-escalation over involvement. US partners are reluctant to deploy naval forces for tanker protection in Hormuz, opting instead for diplomatic pressure, risk reduction strategies, and reserve oil releases to calm markets.
Bright spots persist in US-India relations, including a new trade pact and flexibility on Russian oil purchases, offering India breathing room during shortages. Still, erratic US policies breed caution; Curtis likened it to previous governments’ unpredictability, signaling India’s likely guarded stance ahead.