India’s economic narrative has gotten a major upgrade. SBI Research’s fresh analysis of the new GDP series underscores a ballooned economy size and manufacturing’s pivotal role in fueling growth, even as Q3 FY26 growth dips slightly.
The report notes Q3 growth at 7.8%, down from Q2’s 8.4%, with FY26 full-year forecast at 7.6%—a notch above the old series’ 7.4%. Key revisions include FY24 growth trimmed to 7.2% from 9.2%, and FY25 lifted to 7.1% from 6.5%.
The real headline is the leap in real GDP levels. FY23 jumps to ₹261 lakh crore from ₹161 lakh crore, and FY25 to ₹300 lakh crore from ₹188 lakh crore. Enhanced coverage, double deflation for manufacturing, and detailed indices drive this.
Manufacturing shines brightest, with FY24 at 12.7% and FY26 at 11.5%. All three quarters of FY26 recorded double-digit gains: 10.6%, 13.2%, and 13.3%. Double deflation has sharpened value addition measurements.
Services hold firm at 9% for FY26, with Q3 at 9.5%—better than Q2’s 9.3% and last year’s 8.2%. Financial, realty, IT, and pro services grew 11.2% in Q3.
Agriculture lags with FY26 at 2.4% versus FY25’s 4.2%, Q3 at 1.4% against 5.8% prior year, likely base effect influenced.
This new series, with updated base year and methodologies, offers a clearer lens on India’s progress. Manufacturing’s double-digit roar, backed by services, fortifies optimism. Challenges in agriculture call for targeted interventions, but the broader momentum suggests India is geared for sustained high growth.