China’s demographic time bomb is ticking louder. Even as the government rolls out family-friendly policies, the nation’s population contracted by 3.39 million last year to 1.409 billion. Births plummeted to a historic low of 7.92 million, down sharply from 9.54 million in 2023, while deaths climbed to 11.3 million.
This crisis stems from decades of strict family planning that skewed demographics, leaving fewer fertile women and a ballooning elderly cohort. Recent pro-natalist steps, including the largest-ever childcare subsidy of up to 10,800 yuan annually per toddler, expanded maternity insurance, easier marriages, and tougher divorce rules, have yielded mixed signals.
Marriage numbers bottomed out at 6.106 million in 2024 but rebounded 8.5% in early 2025. Regional surges in Shanghai (38.7%) and Fujian (12%) offer cautious optimism, with forecasts eyeing 6.9 million weddings this year and births nearing 8 million next.
Beneath the numbers lie profound societal shifts. Millennials and Gen Z face crushing pressures: soaring living costs, housing unaffordability, fierce workplace competition, and a reluctance to start families amid uncertainty. ‘Lying flat’—a youth movement rejecting traditional milestones—is gaining traction.
The fallout is ominous for an economy reliant on growth. Labor shortages loom, pension systems buckle under weight, and consumer bases shrink, challenging Xi Jinping’s vision of robust internal demand. Demographers stress holistic solutions: equitable policies, reliable childcare, and cultural nudges to revive family formation. Absent these, policy tweaks may only slow, not reverse, the decline.
