The ripples from America’s crackdown on Venezuela are hitting India’s energy security hard, sparking debates on petrodollar flows and crude trade. In a candid analysis, Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s former top diplomat, dissected the fallout for New Delhi’s oil ambitions.

‘India invested around $6 billion in Venezuela, importing its heavy crude until U.S. sanctions intervened,’ Shringla noted. ONGC’s ventures there, including major shares in San Cristobal and Carabobo fields, now hang in limbo. Yet, the country’s massive reserves—bigger than Saudi’s—make it indispensable.

Shringla advocated a calculated approach: monitor U.S. policies, nurture corporate interests, and bide time for sanctions relief. Global brokerage Jefferies predicts upside: a power shift in Caracas could release $500 million in dividends owed to ONGC from its San Cristobal stake up to 2014, when production ceased.

Experts foresee U.S. oversight potentially lifting export curbs on Venezuelan crude, boosting supply and denting prices. Trump insists bans stay, but market watchers eye opportunities. For India, balancing reliance on discounted Venezuelan oil against geopolitical risks defines the new normal. Shringla’s roadmap stresses resilience: diversify, wait smartly, and seize the moment when doors reopen.