The clock has run out on New START, the pivotal US-Russia accord that curbed the world’s two largest nuclear stockpiles. As of Thursday, no treaty constrains the strategic offensive arms of these Cold War rivals, raising the specter of unchecked proliferation and heightened conflict risks.
Enacted in 2010, the treaty slashed deployed warheads to 1,550 per side and limited launchers to 700 missiles and bombers. Its crown jewel was transparency: mutual inspections allowed each side to peer into the other’s most sensitive facilities, building confidence and preventing surprise buildups.
A five-year extension in 2021 bought time, but Russia’s 2022 Ukraine offensive shattered the fragile peace. Putin halted inspections in 2023, arguing that US and NATO aid to Ukraine made Russian sites vulnerable. Moscow pledged to honor limits voluntarily, and Putin floated a one-year extension last fall, but talks stalled.
Now free from obligations, both powers can modernize aggressively. America is advancing its ‘Sentinel’ ICBMs and Columbia-class submarines, while Russia touts hypersonic Avangard systems and Poseidon drones. Without caps, a tit-for-tat escalation seems inevitable, echoing the 1980s arms race that nearly bankrupted the Soviet Union.
Global leaders are sounding alarms. The UN chief lamented the ‘dangerous void’ in arms control, while analysts predict ripple effects: China may accelerate its buildup, emboldened by the superpower impasse. In an era of hybrid wars and instant nuclear saber-rattling, New START’s end strips away a key stabilizer, forcing diplomats to confront a more volatile nuclear landscape.
