Study Warns Dengue Now a Year-Round Threat Across Pakistan

Dengue is no longer a short-term seasonal concern in Pakistan, according to a newly published study that points to a dramatic rise in infections over the last ten years. Researchers say the actual number of cases has grown by more than 3,000 percent since 2012, reaching an estimated 32.8 lakh infections in 2022.

The study, led by Aga Khan University and released in the journal PLOS ONE, suggests that the country's routine disease reporting is missing a large share of cases. The authors say the current surveillance system records only a small fraction of the real infections, which makes the true burden of the disease difficult to measure.

To estimate the spread of the virus, researchers relied on statistical modelling as well as laboratory-based information. Their analysis found that the mosquito-borne illness is spreading quickly throughout Pakistan, with the largest rise in infections seen among people between 15 and 49 years of age.

The findings also call into question the widely held view that dengue mainly affects the country during a short window after the monsoon rains. According to the researchers, the disease now presents a risk for much of the year.

Sindh emerged as the most severely hit province, with an estimated 26.3 lakh cases recorded in 2022. Within the province, Karachi East reported the highest infection rate. The researchers warned that the fast spread of dengue in crowded urban neighbourhoods is becoming a serious public health concern.

The study identifies several contributing factors, including rapid urbanisation, weak drainage infrastructure, standing water in many areas and severe flooding. Together, these conditions provide mosquitoes with an ideal environment to breed, enabling the disease to spread across wider areas.

Lead author Dr. Jarmeen Naseem said that dengue in Pakistan has evolved from a limited seasonal outbreak into a health hazard that persists throughout the year.

The researchers have urged authorities to overhaul the country's disease monitoring system, strengthen sanitation and drainage services in municipal areas, and expand testing facilities. They stressed that stronger surveillance, better diagnostic access and effective prevention measures are vital to controlling the disease and limiting the damage from future outbreaks.