South Korea faces school closures as first‑grade entries dip below three lakh

Seoul, November 8 – South Korea's shrinking birth cohort is beginning to strain its education infrastructure. Estimates for the 2027 academic session indicate that the number of children enrolling in first grade will fall beneath three lakh for the first time.

Statistics from the Korean Statistical Information Service combined with data from the Korean Educational Development Institute reveal that the 2020 birth cohort is unlikely to meet the 300,000‑student benchmark when they reach primary school in 2027. This follows a steep decline from just under four lakh new enrolments recorded three years earlier.

The Ministry of Data and Statistics reports that 272,337 babies were born in 2020, marking a ten‑percent drop compared with the previous year. In the current school year, 301,442 students entered first grade – a figure barely above the three‑lakh level and the lowest since systematic records began in 1964.

If the trend continues, enrolments could slip below 300,000 next year, representing roughly a quarter of the 1.05 million first‑grade entrants recorded in 1968. Rural districts are particularly at risk, with school closures becoming a real possibility as the school‑age population contracts.

While projections suggest a continued decline until at least 2030, a modest rebound in birth numbers offers limited relief. Births rose to 238,317 in 2024 and increased further to 254,341 in 2025 after years of decline, but the effect on school intake will take time to be felt.

The demographic changes are mirrored in marriage statistics. In 2025, 21,399 multicultural marriages were registered, a 0.2 percent dip from the 21,450 recorded in 2024. These marriages accounted for 8.9 percent of all unions, with Vietnamese spouses making up the largest share at 25.3 percent, followed by Chinese (15.1 percent) and Thai (9.2 percent) spouses.

Authorities are now tasked with balancing the potential closure of schools in less populated areas while safeguarding equitable educational opportunities nationwide.