Minerals and Emergency Rule Stoke Fears in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Concerns are mounting in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa after a new report examined the implications of Pakistan's latest political and security measures in the province. The report argues that the military establishment's hard-state policy, led by Army Chief Asim Munir, may fail to address the root causes of resistance and could instead deepen public anger.
The report highlights several factors that make the province uniquely challenging. With a population exceeding 40 million, strong political organisations, widespread armed insurgency and a sensitive border with Afghanistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa stands out as the most important test for this approach.
The report also doubts that the province's mineral sector will develop as planned. The full geological assessment of mineral deposits has not been completed, processing facilities have limited capacity, and the security situation continues to deteriorate. These obstacles, it says, make rapid exploitation unlikely.
According to the report, a worsening security landscape may prompt the military establishment to ask the central government for more money to fund operations. It could also consolidate its control over the province's minerals and pursue sales to Western buyers.
The report acknowledges that many people are questioning whether Islamabad removed the elected provincial government to take charge of the province's mineral reserves. It states that the verifiable facts raise even graver concerns. A constitutional arrangement implemented in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on October 11, 2026, removed a barrier that had stood in the way of federal control over the province's minerals for at least 18 months.
Using Articles 232 and 234 of the Constitution, the federal government, supported by the military establishment, enforced emergency powers and governor's rule. In any future clash between federal and provincial laws, the federal law will prevail. Chief Minister Sohail Afridi has also been held under preventive detention.
The report notes that minerals are a provincial subject under the 18th Constitutional Amendment. Yet the province now lacks an assembly that could use this power. As a result, the rising suspicion among Pashtun political groups is described in the report as a natural response to the recent turn of events rather than a fabricated theory.
The report also warns that the security consequences of these steps in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could be more severe than any financial gains for the state. Violence figures underline the concern. Police deaths in the first half of 2026 climbed to 122, compared with 63 in the same period a year before. Between July and September 2026, 556 people died in violence, up from 475 in the previous quarter.
Islamabad has defended the emergency declaration by pointing to the deteriorating security situation. The report, however, maintains that removing the only elected government with legitimacy among Pashtuns, arresting its chief minister, and opening the province's resources to federal and foreign control will not stop the trend of violence.
It cautions that militant organisations could use these developments to build a strong narrative, potentially leading to conditions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa similar to those that have made governance in Balochistan extremely difficult.