Democrats Eye House Control as Trump Faces Voter Anger
Washington, October 27
One week before the midterm elections, a fresh round of polling has put President Donald Trump and his party on the defensive. Trump is trailing Democrats, and the numbers point to voter anger over economic pain caused by the tariff war and the Iran conflict.
Prominent election analysts say Republicans are likely to lose control of the House of Representatives. The Senate race, however, remains too close to call.
Trump's final two years in office will depend on which party controls one or both chambers of Congress. Should Democrats win either chamber, they could seek to obstruct Trump's policies and actions. Trump could push back hard, creating a gridlock that may end up before the courts.
In the best-case scenario for Democrats, the country could see a rerun of Trump's first term, when the Democratic House impeached him. Trump has already told his supporters that an impeachment could happen again.
His frustration is evident in his recent promises. He says that if Republicans win the midterms, every adult American will receive $5,000. He has also announced plans to lift sanctions on Russia imposed over its war in Ukraine. Trump, who once slapped a 100 percent tariff on India, has also signed a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to buy diesel.
Trump calls the midterms a referendum on his second administration's first 20 months. He urges voters to act as if they were on the ballot themselves. Yet several Republican leaders are now distancing themselves because of his low approval ratings.
New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate John Sununu, in one advertisement, said he would oppose the president if his policies harmed New Hampshire, just as he opposed the Iran war and the trade war with Canada.
It seems Trump has accepted that both his party and his own popularity are slipping, even in strongholds. He is therefore concentrating on Red States, where he won the presidency, to rally support for Republican candidates, rather than taking his message into Blue States to challenge Democrats.
Speaking about his recent rallies, which he dubs Trumpapalooza, he claimed, "Wherever I go, the people who were in a weak position are now winning." The rallies stretch from Alaska in the north to Texas in the south.
In a rare move, his Justice Department has sued to block the official certification of Alaska's Senate election results, a step that would be relevant if Republican Dan S. Sullivan loses. The administration argues that Daniel J. Sullivan is also on the ballot and could mislead voters.
Voting is already under way. As of Monday, roughly 30 million citizens had cast ballots, either by mail or at polling centers.
There are 217 million registered voters nationwide. Midterm turnout usually runs low, at 46.2 percent in 2022 and 50 percent in 2018.
A Democratic House majority would match a long-standing pattern in which the president's party tends to lose midterm elections. Still, the size of that majority will matter.
RealClearPolitics, which combines results from several polls, says only 38.2 percent of likely voters are satisfied with Trump's job performance, while 60.2 percent are not. In addition, 57 percent say Trump's policies have worsened their finances.
This reflects the Iran conflict, which Trump launched together with Israel, along with the worldwide fallout from the tariff war. For Trump, it has become a major domestic problem.
Inflation was 3.7 percent last month, up from 3.4 percent in August. Rising petroleum costs, especially diesel, and their ripple effect on essential goods have hit consumers hard. Tariffs on everyday products have added to the strain.
During the 2024 campaign, Trump had claimed he would reduce gasoline to $2 per gallon, or 53 cents per liter. Currently, petrol averages $4.28 per gallon, or $1.13 per liter, and diesel has reached $6.28 per gallon, or $1.66 per liter.
RealClearPolitics has Democrats winning a majority in the 435-seat House with 227 seats. Another 25 seats are toss-ups, where no party has a clear lead and outcomes could go either way.
The Cook Political Report, a reliable nonpartisan source, projects 220 seats for Democrats, while 17 seats remain uncertain.
Erin Covey, the House editor at Cook, put it bluntly: "The Republican path to keeping control of the House has nearly disappeared."
CBS News projects 229 seats for Democrats and 206 for Republicans. Aware of past polling misses, it added: "Republicans may still have a very narrow path to hold onto a majority."
CBS News says it sees no major Democratic wave, and that undecided voters tend to lean toward Republicans.
No clear Senate winner is visible at this stage.
This year, only 35 seats are up for grabs. Since senators serve six-year terms, about one-third of the 100 seats face voters every two years.
CBS News has also counted seats that are not up this cycle. It says Democrats hold 46 seats and Republicans hold 44.