Technical View: Nifty Near Support, RSI Signals Possible Bounce

Mumbai, Oct 4 – The Indian equity market finished the week on a bearish note, with the Sensex down 1.52% and the Nifty slipping over 3% to close at 22,421.95. Analysts point to a prolonged correction as the Nifty records its eighth consecutive week of decline.

Technical metrics underline the weakness. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 31.06, well below the 50 neutral line and edging toward the oversold threshold of 30. While this suggests limited buying pressure, it also opens the door for short‑term recoveries if the index can hold above key support.

Resistance levels are identified at 22,800 and 23,000. A decisive break above these marks could alleviate selling pressure. Conversely, support is anchored at 22,350 and 22,180; a breach would likely trigger sharper declines.

Global dynamics continue to influence the chart. Rising US Treasury yields and persistent inflation concerns keep investors wary, while the recent dip in Brent crude prices after supply normalisation at the Hormuz Strait provides modest relief to energy‑heavy stocks.

On the domestic front, August industrial production rose 8% YoY, with manufacturing expanding 9% and power‑gas supply up 12.3%, indicating a sturdy economic foundation that may eventually translate into market strength.

In the coming days, market participants will monitor RBI’s policy decision, Q2 corporate earnings, and any movement in West Asian tensions, all of which could act as catalysts for a technical reversal.

Overall, the Nifty sits at a critical juncture where a bounce is possible if buying interest resurfaces, but the prevailing macro backdrop remains a headwind.