Global plastic pollution is on track to wreak havoc on human health, potentially doubling risks by 2040 unless drastic measures are taken. This revelation comes from a comprehensive analysis in The Lancet Planetary Health, which tracks plastics’ impact across their entire lifecycle.

Fossil fuel extraction, the source of over 90% of plastic raw materials, kicks off a chain of hazardous processes. Manufacturing spews air pollutants, usage sheds microplastics, and improper disposal releases toxins into soil, water, and air. The study models future trajectories based on consumption and waste management patterns.

Under a business-as-usual scenario, health damages will more than double. Climate change fueled by plastic-related emissions will drive 40% of impacts, manufacturing pollution 32%, and chemical leaching 27%. Researchers note that production and incineration are the primary offenders, linking plastics to higher cancer rates and chronic illnesses.

From 2.1 million healthy life years lost in 2016, the toll could reach 4.5 million by 2040, amounting to 83 million years overall. Enhanced recycling alone falls short; integrating material substitution and reuse shows greater promise in simulations.

Experts call for stringent policies to control virgin plastic production and eliminate non-essential applications. This study serves as a clarion call for global cooperation to avert a public health crisis.