India Boosts Russian Crude Intake Amid Supply Chain Turbulence, Not Discount Deals
NEW DELHI, September 22 – A freshly published report claims that India’s expanding appetite for Russian crude oil is a consequence of supply‑chain turbulence linked to the Western Asian war, rather than any ongoing discount on Russian grades.
The research, conducted by Axis Bank’s Economic Research team, records that India has imported 298 million barrels of Russian crude since the United States entered a conflict with Iran. Presently, the country brings in about 60 million barrels per month, up from an average of 46 million barrels in fiscal year 2023‑24.
Russia’s share of India’s crude basket rose from zero to roughly 30 percent between March 2022 and June 2023, a jump many initially linked to discount pricing. Yet the additional imports observed after March 2026 cannot be solely explained by price variations.
Key observations include: (1) the average discount on Russian crude versus West Asian oil has steadied at $3‑5 per barrel since 2023; and (2) even with a premium of up to $7 per barrel, Russia’s portion of India’s crude imports continues to grow. Had India sourced the extra 60‑80 million barrels on the spot market, oil prices would likely be higher today.
The analysis further notes that threatening higher tariffs can be more effective in trade negotiations than imposing them, and that higher oil prices feed directly into U.S. retail inflation, a concern for Republican lawmakers heading into mid‑term elections.
Congress’s backing of the tariff threat adds legal weight, while pending Section 301 outcomes could cause further rate volatility. For India, the benchmark remains the 18 % headline tariff rate agreed before the U.S. Supreme Court nullified the IEEPA‑based tariff in February 2026.
When applied, the effective tariff rate sits below the headline figure due to exemptions. Meanwhile, India’s export performance this fiscal year shows a 19 % year‑on‑year increase, led by electronics, automotive components, metals and refined petroleum products, with a noticeable rise in U.S. shipments.