Geopolitical friction over Greenland is keeping investors awake at night, with a new report forecasting continued market ups and downs. The US push to control the resource-rich island, spearheaded by President Trump, has ignited fears of broader trade conflicts and economic fallout.

Bank of Baroda’s latest insights reveal investors are in wait-and-see mode, scrutinizing every development in the US-Denmark standoff. Clarity on negotiation progress will dictate whether stability returns or volatility intensifies across global bourses.

Trump framed the interest as a security imperative, but analysts point to Greenland’s vast untapped deposits of rare minerals, oil, and gas as the real draw. The plot thickened with Trump’s tariff threats against key European exporters, prompting swift military countermeasures from France, Germany, Sweden, and others.

From February 2026, a 10% levy was slated for imports from eight European nations, escalating to 25% mid-year. Markets reeled from the news, amplifying existing uncertainties. A NATO-US framework agreement offered brief respite, though details remain murky.

Davos brought a twist: Trump’s softened stance on tariffs eased some pressure. Still, debates over American troop deployments, mining rights, and autonomy issues loom large. This saga echoes the 1951 security accord, but with higher stakes in today’s tense climate.

As economist Aditi Gupta notes, the path forward hinges on diplomatic breakthroughs. Without them, expect erratic trading patterns to dominate headlines, underscoring how Arctic ambitions are reshaping investor strategies worldwide.