Current Distillation Capacity Sufficient for Base-Case Ethanol Use

The Brickwork Ratings report confirms that India's present distillation capability of 18.25 billion litres can comfortably meet the base‑case ethanol demand forecast of 17.9 billion litres for FY 2031. Utilisation rates under this scenario are projected at around 98 %, indicating that most of the existing infrastructure will be fully leveraged.

Even in the "bear" case, where blending remains at E20, demand would settle at 14.3 billion litres, leaving a utilisation cushion of about 22 % that could be redeployed for other energy needs or strategic reserves.

These findings suggest that, for the near term, the sector's focus should shift to improving feedstock efficiency and extracting maximum value from the assets already in place.