News Analysis India

Tag: UK variant

  • UK strain of COVID-19 found in Rajasthan: Health Minister

    By PTI
    JAIPUR: The UK strain of COVID-19 has been found in the samples sent from Rajasthan for genome sequencing, the state government said on Wednesday According to the state’s Health Minister Raghu Sharma, the reports were received a couple of days back.

    “We had sent samples for genome sequencing. In the samples, UK strain was found,” Sharma said.

    On the directions of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, officials have started the process of setting up genome sequencing facility at the Swai Man Singh (SMS) Medical College in Jaipur, he said.

    “Once we know about the strain and other details, the line of treatment may be updated accordingly,” he said.

    Active COVID-19 cases in Rajasthan have reached 2.05 lakh while a total of 5,994 people have died due to the viral disease so far.

    The state has reported a total of 7,89,274 COVID cases.

  • Covid second wave is nearing its peak: Noted virologist Dr T Jacob John

    Express News Service
    The second wave has been brutal. When will it end? What about the herd immunity that was talked about? And how vital is our vaccination drive? With cases surging and worries too, The New Indian Express spoke to leading virologist Dr T Jacob John to gain a better understanding. Excerpts from the interview:

    Has the scale and speed of the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic in India taken you by surprise or will you say it was always expected?

    Yes indeed, the scale and speed of spread in second wave took me by surprise. That was because I, like everyone else, was under the impression that India had only the “founder variant” Wuhan virus, which was later (April-May 2020) replaced by “D614G” variant.  I was sure that D614G cannot cause a second wave. And it did not. The second wave is mostly being driven by new variants — UK (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351) and Brazil (called B.1.28 and as P.1) variants plus two so-called Indian variants (B.1.617 and B.1.618), possibly others. We also had B.1.36 (called N440K). These crept up but no one was checking for these variants — and government, ICMR, INSACOG, the three responsible agencies failed India. Why no one was watching out is not known but the ultimate place where the buck must stop is the National Disaster Management Agency, which is directly under Union Government. We saved a lot of funds by not establishing virology labs/employing virologists in the Health Management System and now we pay its price in the virus surprising everyone. 

    The second wave of infections has been even worse in terms of the impact as the country was largely unprepared in terms of health infrastructure and resources like oxygen despite battling the pandemic for over a year. Where do you think we went wrong?

    In normal times, the healthcare infrastructure was always overstretched — we have only 1/6th of the required hospital beds; 2/3rds of doctors and 3/4ths of nurses. Do you not remember that in Gorakhpur, some years ago, many children had died due to oxygen shortage and one paediatrician was penalized for it? Even during the first wave, our healthcare resources were overstretched. So, the suboptimal healthcare infrastructure could not cope with the sudden surge in demand. I hear rural areas are badly affected, but that does not come in the news. Our budget for human health should optimally be at least 7-8% of national GDP, but actually it is only some 2%, or about a quarter (of that). We get what we pay for.   

    ALSO READ | Helping Handles: How social media and youth stood hand-in-hand as a digital COVID helpline

    The official fatality rate is under 1.2 % but it’s clear that deaths due to Covid-19 are being hugely undercounted. What is your understanding of the situation from metros, small cities and even villages?

    What difference does it make if it is higher? Will it change the way Covid management is approached? No. Then why seek accuracy when no other data has accuracy? The overall death rate is low in India for three reasons. One gross under-reporting; second, demographic advantage, with 30% of population below 15 years and only 30% above 45 years. Only 5% are over 65 — in Europe and US it is 13-15%. Death will be low in a younger population. Third, all those vulnerable to die from communicable diseases have probably died already because India has no communicable diseases control programme. There is no policy even to control TB, only to treat TB for mortality reduction. 

    If the government will not create policies based on data, then having data will not help. Data collection is also expensive. India has lived all these years without data, reliable or validated, so why this need for data now? I am being rather “cynical” because I have been writing about these lacunae for decades but no other scientist or public health person has supported the demand for a system to have data to drive policy and responses.  

    Till a couple of months ago, we were hearing the term “herd immunity” a lot but it has vanished from the discourse completely. With the size and scale of infections, do you think attaining natural herd immunity is still possible? Or is this virus too smart to evade immune response by mutating quickly?

    Yes, this term was in fashion. My definition of herd immunity is the proportion of the community that has immunity. People confused “herd immunity threshold” and threshold. Herd immunity threshold is the herd immunity level that is compatible with the epidemic. For D614G, it was believed to be 60%.  I feel that our population was less vulnerable to the infection than in other countries; therefore, our herd immunity threshold was about 50%. That means at 25% herd immunity the first wave peaked and it ended when 50% was reached. So, at the end of the first wave 50% or 690 million Indians had been infected. The second wave is in the remaining 50%. The herd immunity threshold for the viruses in second wave has to be higher — perhaps 70%. Herd immunity is a valuable concept. There is no evidence that the variants are evading immunity. Covaxin immunity has been proved to be effective against all new variants.    

    ALSO READ | Fully protected only after second dose of Covid vaccine: Experts

    What is the course of the pandemic going to be in India now? Will there be more devastating waves like the one we are seeing now?

    The second wave is nearing its peak. If it peaks soon, after eight weeks from the start, it should end in another eight weeks, by the end of June. If new variants with high transmission efficiency emerge, and if they are able to evade immunity, we could have a small third wave. However, at this time, predictions are more like wishful thinking. We must prepare for a third wave — even if it is unlikely.  

    What role do you think vaccines will play in controlling the pandemic and what do you think of the government’s vaccination policy so far?

    Vaccines are the most powerful tool to control any epidemic. For effective control, the herd immunity threshold has to be vaccinated. But we will not have enough vaccine even to cover a fraction of the herd immunity threshold. We know that infection itself has to now reach herd immunity threshold to contain even the second wave. In other words, India is far too late to introduce vaccination. And the required speed — ideally faster than infection — will not be met either. Reason? Government did not factor in vaccines in the control strategy. Somebody forgot all about the potential of vaccination to control the epidemic in India.

    How long do you think it will take for this pandemic to become endemic and become irrelevant — from a public health perspective — to some extent?

    Unknown to many, we did enter the endemic phase for a full 10 weeks until it was broken by new mutants. For a few days in December 2020, all of January and February and more than a week in March 2021, India was in the endemic phase, with the daily average of cases not exceeding 20,000.

    Once Phase 2 is over, we will again reach endemic phase — by last quarter of June is my “intelligent guess”. Even in the endemic phase, old persons and those with co-morbidity, cancers, chronic kidney disease, pregnancy etc. will be vulnerable to Covid-related problems. At least in them, Covid should be prevented by vaccination. 

    ALSO WATCH | Covid double mutant B1617, a variant of concern: Centre

  • UK variant dominates north India; double mutant in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka: NCDC chief

    By PTI
    NEW DELHI: The UK strain of coronavirus is currently dominating parts of north India while the double mutant variant is found mostly in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat, Director of the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) Sujeet Singh said on Wednesday.

    He, however, added that the B1.1.7 lineage of SARS CoV-2 (UK variant) is declining in proportion across the country in the last month and a half.

    Addressing a press conference, he said the B.1.1.7 (UK strain) is dominating parts of north India including Punjab (482 samples), Delhi (516), followed by Telangana (192), Maharashtra (83) and Karnataka (82).

    ALSO READ | N440K variant fades as B1617 picks up, say scientists on COVID-19 second wave

    Ten top government laboratories and institutions have been sequencing the genomes of coronavirus since December, Singh said, adding 18,053 samples have been sequenced so far.

    He said the information on genome sequencing has been shared with the states twice in February, four times in March and again four times in April.

    Singh said in the video-conferencing with states, the health ministry also informed about the current status of variants of concern and new mutants and it stressed on increased and stringent public health interventions.

    The double mutant variant, also known as B.1.617, is mostly dominating Maharashtra (761), West Bengal (124), Delhi (107) and Gujarat (102).

    The South African variant, also known as B.1.315, was predominantly found in Telangana and Delhi.

    ALSO WATCH:

    The Brazilian variant (P1) was only found in Maharashtra in a negligible proportion.

    Singh said there is a frequent written communication on the variants by the Health ministry and NCDC to all states and union territories.

    He advised states and union territories to keep strict surveillance in the districts reporting new variants of concern where they can take up stringent public health measures including contact tracing, genome sequencing of positive samples of persons having history of international travel.

  • COVID second wave: Mutant variants driving rise in high-burden states

    By Express News Service
    NEW DELHI:  Experts engaged in genome analysis say that one of the reasons behind the surge in the Covid-19 cases could be increasing mutant variants in many cities, especially in high-burden states.On the strains, such as the double and triple mutant detected in India, they said all are the same variant of the virus, and the available vaccines are effective on them.

    National Institute of Biomedical Genomics (NIBG) director Soumitra Das on Friday said double mutant and triple mutant terms are colloquial and both refer to the same variant B.1.617. “In fact, these variants harbour 15 lineage defining mutations. B.1.617, initially termed double mutant, has three new spike protein mutations. Double and triple mutants are one and the same.

    ALSO READ: COVID deaths quadruple, new cases treble in 10 days amidst poll rush in Bengal

    “Double and triple mutants are over-lapping terms and have been used differentially in a different context,” he said. The NIBG in Kalyani is one of the 10 laboratories across the country involved in the genome sequencing of the coronavirus. Director of National Centre for Disease Control Sujeet Kumar Singh said the second wave could be partly because of the increasing prevalence of mutant variants in cities, especially in Delhi Maharashtra and Punjab.

    “There are scenarios which we are observing. In Punjab, we found that the UK variant was the primary variant. In Maharashtra, B.1.617 (double mutant) variant in proportions over 50 per cent in many cities,” Singh said. “The scenario is still unfolding but we have seen a rise from 28 per cent of samples having the UK variant in the second week of March to 50 per cent in the last week of March. If we try to correlate the surge in Delhi, I think it directly correlates with the type of variant which we are observing,” he added.

  • COVID-19: 80% patients in Punjab got UK variant, Harshvardhan says farmers’ protest causing surge

    By ANI
    NEW DELHI: Union Health Minister Dr Harshvardhan on Tuesday said that 80 per cent of Covid-19 cases in Punjab has UK variant of the virus and asserted that the reasons behind the surge in fresh infections could be marriages, local body elections and farmer protests.

    “In Punjab, 80 per cent of the cases due to the UK variant have been found and it has been confirmed by genome sequencing. It has come to notice that this surge in cases is event-driven like big fat weddings, local body elections, farmer protest, etc could also play a possible role,” Vardhan said, during his meeting with Health Ministers of 11 states to review the COVID-19 situation.

    Genomic sequencing is an advanced test that determines the precise genetic information a virus carries as viruses mutate as they multiply and spread.

    ALSO READ: COVID-19 spreading faster than last time in India, next four weeks critical, says Centre

    Punjab is witnessing farmers’ protest since last year against the three newly enacted farm laws — Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020; the Farmers Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act 2020 and the Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020.

    The Union Health Minister also expressed concerns about the COVID-19 situation in Chattisgarh and described it as the worst affected state with 10 fold rise in coronavirus cases.

    “Worst affected states is Chattisgarh. Raipur and Durg are seeing a spike in cases. 20 per cent positivity rate and growth rate is 8 per cent from 400 to 4000 has risen, almost 10 folds,” Vardhan said.

    On the COVID-19 situation in Delhi, Vardhan said: “We have witnessed a declining trend for a very long time but now when the rising trend is being witnessed. Earlier less than 100 cases were observed (in a day), now the number has risen to 5,000 cases.”

    “The Government of India has sent 50 central teams to Maharashtra, Chattisgarh and Punjab where 30 districts of Maharashtra, 11 districts of Chattisgarh and 9 districts of Punjab will be covered. They will stay 3-5 days in these districts,” he informed.

    ALSO READ: IMA urges PM Modi to open COVID vaccination for all above 18 years

    Meanwhile, India reported more than 96,982 cases new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, informed the Union Health Ministry on Tuesday.

    With these additional cases, the total number of COVID-19 cases in the country has reached 1,26,86,049.

    With 446 new deaths, the death toll in India has gone up to 1,65,547. There are 7,88,223 active cases in the nation as of now. Furthermore, 50,143 people were discharged after recovery on Monday, taking the nationwide recovery tally to 1,17,32,279. 

  • 147 districts recorded no new COVID-19 infections in last seven days: Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan

    By ANI
    NEW DELHI: At least 147 districts in the country have not reported a case of COVID-19 in the last seven days, informed Dr Harsh Vardhan, Union Minister of Health and Family Welfare on Thursday.

    During the 23rd meeting of the High-level Group of Ministers (GoM) on COVID-19, the Union Minister said: “In India, 147 districts have not seen a COVID-19 case in the last seven days, 18 districts in the last 14 days, six in the last 21 days, and 21 districts have not registered a case in the last 28 days.”

    During the meeting, the Health Minister also expressed satisfaction at the country’s performance to combat COVID-19, stating that “Our fatality rate continues to be the lowest in the world at almost 1.44 per cent and 1,03,73,606 people have recovered from the virus, taking the recovery rate to nearly 97 per cent.”

    He further informed that the country has 15,473 dedicated hospitals, health care facilities, and COVID-19 care centers with 19,00,714 beds and 12,673 quarantine centres.

    ALSO READ: Covaxin can neutralize UK strain of coronavirus too, says Study

    On the ongoing coronavirus vaccination programme, he said, “We have completed 42,674 sessions of vaccinations all over the country. As many as 23,55,979 people have been administered the COVID-19 vaccines so far and 3,26,499 health workers have received the vaccines in the last 24 hours.”

    “The total number of cases in the country stands at 1,07,01,193 and in the last 24 hours, the country recorded 11,660 cases. Currently, 70 per cent of the current cases are from Maharashtra and Kerala. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have slightly more than 500 cases and the rest of the places have less than 500 cases,” he added.

    Updating the GoM on the United Kingdom (UK) variant found in India, he mentioned that 153 cases have been diagnosed in the country and all the protocols to keep these cases under surveillance and in isolation are being followed.