News Analysis India

Tag: travel ban

  • Travel bans cannot curb spread of Omicron: Experts

    Express News Service

    BENGALURU: Travel bans in the light of detection of the new Omicron variant, are not a useful measure and their benefits are limited for a multitude of reasons, some experts say. From what we know of the pandemic, by the time a travel ban is implemented, the virus would already be in circulation in the country, said noted epidemiologist, vaccinologist and public health expert Dr Chandrakant Lahariya. A travel ban may only help delay the entry of the variant.

    “A key aspect is that if a travel ban is imposed for reporting new strains, it disincentivises the country which is documenting and reporting the variant honestly. They might stop reporting, fearing the economic impact of a ban. This is counterproductive,” Dr Lahariya explained.

    He added that countries that have imposed the ban, have already reported cases of the new variant. Moreover, the ban does not affect countries that have the variant in circulation, but have not reported it yet, causing the virus to enter other countries this way.

    In a thread on social media, Dr Giridhar Babu, epidemiologist and member of the Karnataka Covid Technical Advisory Committee, said Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong cannot be the only areas where Omicron has travelled. These areas probably have better surveillance and genomic sequencing and hence, have reported it in a timely manner. Absence of reporting is not absence of circulation, he cautioned.

    “Imposing travel curbs, restricting entry from a few countries is not going to prevent or control the spread of Omicron. It’s akin to closing a stable door after a horse has bolted. Instead, identify clusters of cases of recent origin and do genomic sequencing,” Dr Babu said. Dr Lahariya said the way forward is stronger surveillance at the port of entry, containment, testing and genomic sequencing.  

    There is no evidence that travel bans are effective, said Dr Vinod Scaria, genomics scientist at the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research – Institute Of Genomics And Integrative Biology, on twitter. He too said that in most cases, virus transmission would have already happened before the ban is imposed.

  • ‘It disincentivises the country which reported the variant’: Experts bat against travel bans to curb Omicron threat

    Express News Service

    BENGALURU: Travel bans in the light of detection of the new Omicron variant, are not a useful measure and their benefits are limited for a multitude of reasons, some experts say.

    From what we know of the pandemic, by the time a travel ban is implemented, the virus would already be in circulation in the country, said noted epidemiologist, vaccinologist and public health expert Dr Chandrakant Lahariya. A travel ban may only help delay the entry of the variant.

    “A key aspect is that if a travel ban is imposed for reporting new strains, it disincentivises the country which is documenting and reporting the variant honestly. They might stop reporting, fearing the economic impact of a ban. This is counterproductive,” Dr Lahariya explained.

    He added that countries that have imposed the ban, have already reported cases of the new variant. Moreover, the ban does not affect countries that have the variant in circulation, but have not reported it yet, causing the virus to enter other countries this way.

    In a thread on social media, Dr Giridhar Babu, epidemiologist and member of the Karnataka Covid Technical Advisory Committee, said Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong cannot be the only areas where Omicron has travelled. These areas probably have better surveillance and genomic sequencing and hence, have reported it in a timely manner. Absence of reporting is not absence of circulation, he cautioned.

    “Imposing travel curbs, restricting entry from a few countries is not going to prevent or control the spread of Omicron. It’s akin to closing a stable door after a horse has bolted. Instead, identify clusters of cases of recent origin and do genomic sequencing,” Dr Babu said. Dr Lahariya said the way forward is stronger surveillance at the port of entry, containment, testing and genomic sequencing.  

    There is no evidence that travel bans are effective, said Dr Vinod Scaria, genomics scientist at the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research – Institute Of Genomics And Integrative Biology, on twitter. He too said that in most cases, virus transmission would have already happened before the ban is imposed.

  • Domestic travel curbs can lead to more rather than fewer Covid infections: Study

    By Express News Service
    NEW DELHI: A new study using data from India and five other countries has found that domestic travel bans to control Covid infections may be inadvisable. 

    Depending on their duration, these restrictions can lead to more rather than fewer infections overall, especially when there is a large urban-rural migrant population.

    As India battles a severe second wave of Covid, state governments are once again faced with the question — Should we use travel bans to control disease transmission? In the first Covid wave, most states chose this option. 

    The prevention of migrant workers to their villages was seen as a necessary sacrifice to reduce the spread of disease into rural India. In the second wave also, the Delhi government has urged migrants not to leave. Other cities may follow.

    A new research paper by academics at the University of Chicago suggests that imposing travel bans can counter-intuitively increase the total spread of the disease, creating a lose-lose situation. This outcome occurs when a country has a large migrant population that is prevented from leaving an urban hotspot and returning to rural areas.

    The researchers show that if the net effect of a travel ban is to delay the movement of these people, rather than prevent it entirely, the policy can lead to more cases overall. 

    The paper uses detailed data on rural-urban migration, travel ban policies, and Covid cases to show that this lose-lose outcome occurred in India during the first wave, due to travel bans imposed on migrants wishing to leave Mumbai. 

    ALSO READ | Health Ministry releases revised guidelines for home isolation of mild COVID-19 cases

    Elaborating on these findings, Dr. Anant Sudarshan, South Asia Director of The Energy Policy Institute at the university of Chicago and one of the study authors, says, “The national lockdown in the first wave trapped millions of migrants inside big cities such as Mumbai that were fast-growing coronavirus hotspots. 

    Eventually, people were able to leave, but variations in government policy meant that the length of time they were detained depended on where they wanted to go. In the case of rural districts where people could return quicker — using the Shramik Special Trains for example — cases rose modestly at the destination. But for those areas where bans were in effect longer, there was a much more intensive increase in coronavirus, likely because the returning population was now more likely to be infected, having been trapped in the hotspot longer.”

    Apart from Mumbai, the paper further analyses data from five other countries where migration is prevalent — China, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Africa, and Kenya. Together, these countries comprise roughly 40% of the global population and all of them had initial outbreaks in a few hotspot locations. 

    The researchers used epidemiological data, migration data, and information on travel bans from all these countries to show that although exceptionally long bans may work to reduce total cases, moderate durations are associated with significant increases in disease spread.

    Fiona Burlig, Assistant Professor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, one of the co-authors of the study, adds, “The evidence indicates that if the duration of a travel ban is not long enough, we may end up imposing hardship on people while perversely seeing more spread of infection.

    Getting the duration wrong is easy because it is not possible to predict in advance what the optimal length should be, and in a democracy, such restrictions cannot be easily sustained. There may be merit in letting people go home early, and indeed encouraging them to do so, rather than forcing them to stay.”

  • New Zealand travel ban from India could affect Black Caps at IPL if extended beyond April 28

    By PTI
    WELLINGTON: New Zealand’s travel ban from India starting Sunday could impact its cricketers playing in the IPL and force them to fly straight to the UK for the two-Test series against England in May-June, followed by the World Test Championship final.

    Captain Kane Williamson, pacers Trent Boult and Kyle Jamieson are among the 10 New Zealand players taking part in the IPL beginning on Friday.

    “We’re monitoring the situation and are in contact with the IPL franchises to keep the lines of communication open, because the tournament’s due to go for some time,” Richard Boock, NZC’s public affairs manager was quoted as saying by ‘New Zealand Herald’.

    New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Thursday announced an April 11 to 28 ban on arrivals from India in the wake of rising COVID-19 cases in the country.

    “We’re prepared to discuss all contingencies, if the situation warrants.

    For argument’s sake, if it occurred with one of the test players, it might make more sense for them to continue on to England (for the test tour and world championship final),” Boock added.

    New Zealand play two Tests in England between May 25 to June 14, followed by the WTC final against India from June 18.

    India has been recording more than one lakh cases for the past few days.

    “Ultimately these decisions around travel into high risk countries generally will come down to individuals, but also if it’s a workforce, their employers.

    So those are judgements they need to make,” Ardern said.

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