News Analysis India

Tag: Third Wave

  • India’s daily COVID-19 cases drop below 50,000 mark in nearly 40 days

    By ANI

    NEW DELHI: As COVID-19 third wave appears to be abating with new cases dropping below 50,000-mark for the first time in nearly one and a half months, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s data on Sunday.

    The COVID cases had begun to show a significant rise following the emergence of the Omicron variant last year.

    As many as 44,877 fresh COVID-19 cases were reported across the country in the 24-hour period, the lowest since January 4 when 37,379 new cases were recorded. The daily COVID spike breached 58,097 cases mark on January 5.

    44,877 #COVID19 cases in the last 24 hours. The daily positivity rate stands at 3.17%.Express Photo | @ashokkumar_TNIE pic.twitter.com/PmhDvtmPXg
    — The New Indian Express (@NewIndianXpress) February 13, 2022
    A total of 75.07 crore tests have been conducted so far in India, with 14,15,279 tests held in the last 24 hours, as per ministry data.

    With this, the country’s active caseload currently stands at 5,37,045 which accounts for 1.26 per cent of total cases. At present, Kerala (1,82,118) has the highest number of active COVID-19 cases followed by Maharashtra (56,206) and Tamil Nadu (47,643).

    ALSO READ: Tamil Nadu almost back to normal from February 16 as govt lifts most COVID restrictions

    The daily positivity rate in India has been recorded at 3.17 per cent and the weekly positivity rate at 4.46 per cent, as per the bulletin.

    A total of 1,17,591 patients have recovered in the last 24 hours and the cumulative tally of recovered patients since the beginning of the pandemic is now at 4,15,85,711, stated the bulletin. India’s recovery rate now stands at 97.55 per cent.

    The country reported 684 deaths in the past 24 hours, taking the toll to 5,08,665.

    ALSO READ: COVID-19 restrictions to be lifted in Bihar

    After witnessing the second wave in April-May last year, COVID-19 cases in India started declining in subsequent months and daily infections spike reached as low as 5,326 new cases on December 21.

    Meanwhile, the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529), a new variant of the coronavirus, was first reported in Botswana on November 11, 2021, and appeared on November 14 in South Africa. India detected its first Omicron case on December 2 last year in Karnataka.

    Following the emergence of the Omicron variant, daily cases began rising by December-end and breached the 1-lakh mark on January 7 when 1,17,100 fresh infections were reported. In a written reply in Lok Sabha on February 4, 2022, Minister of State in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Dr Bharati Pravin Pawar stated that “an upsurge of COVID-19 cases in the country was observed by the end of December, 2021 which was primarily driven by the Omicron variant”.

    The peak of the current surge was recorded on January 21, 2022, when 3,47,254 new cases were recorded in a 24-hour period.

    Meanwhile, 172.81 crore COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered so far under nationwide vaccination drive. 

  • Third COVID wave may get over by mid-March as cases declining: Maharashtra minister Rajesh Tope

    By PTI

    JALNA: Maharashtra health minister Rajesh Tope on Friday said the number of COVID-19 cases had begun declining statewide and predicted that the third wave of the pandemic might get over by the second or third week of March.

    He said the state, which was reporting 48,000 cases per day during the third wave which started some weeks ago, was now seeing the tally increase by 15,000 daily, adding that the infection curve was flattening in major cities like Mumbai, Pune, Thane and Raigad.

    Speaking to reporters here, the minister said the Centre must start the process of vaccinating children in the 12-15 age segment against COVID-19. He said that Maharashtra was ready with the health infrastructure to vaccinate this age group.

    Coronavirus-induced curbs will continue to be lowered as the number of cases go down, Tope added.

  • Slightly younger population infected more in this COVID-19 wave, says government

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: A comparatively younger population with an average age of 44 years has been infected more in this Covid wave, the government said on Thursday, highlighting there was significantly less use of drugs for treatment this time.

    Addressing the weekly press conference, ICMR DG Balram Bhargava said in this Covid wave, sore throat was seen more in the patients.

    A slightly younger population having an average age of 44 years was infected more in this wave in comparison to the previous ones, he said.

    In the earlier waves, the average age of the section of the population infected was 55 years, Bhargava added.

    The conclusion was drawn from the National Clinical Registry of COVID-19, in which data was collected about hospitalised patients from 37 medical facilities.

    “There were two time periods which we studied. One was November 15 to December 15, which was presumed to be dominated by the strain of Delta, and the other was December 16 to January 17, when the presumed dominant strain was Omicron,” he said.

    As many as 1,520 hospitalised individuals were analysed, and their mean age during this third surge was about 44 years, a slightly younger population, Bhargava said.

    “Having said that, the co-morbidities present in this younger population were pretty high. About 46 per cent had co-morbidities, these are the people who are younger. But nearly half of them had some co-morbidities and their symptoms were much less. But the predominant symptom, which is higher in this population during the January period, was sore throat. Sore throat was more common than the earlier period,” he said.

    “We also found that there was a significantly lesser use of drugs during this surge and significantly improved outcomes with much less complications of renal failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and others,” Bhargava said.

    Looking at the outcomes, Bhargava said the death rate was 10 per cent in vaccinated people and 22 per cent in those unvaccinated.

    “In vaccinated versus unvaccinated, death was 10 per cent (91 per cent co-morbidities) vs 22 per cent (83 per cent co-morbidities). So really nine out of 10 had co-morbidities in this young population who died and were vaccinated. Of the unvaccinated, 83 per cent had co-morbidities. So not being vaccinated and having co-morbidities really are the drivers which decide the course of the patient,” Bhargava said.

  • Third Covid wave in India: Omicron or Delta?

    By IANS

    NEW DELHI: While the recent surge in Covid cases seen in India is largely due to Omicron, it does not mean that Delta has weakened, experts contended on Tuesday.

    India on Tuesday recorded 1,68,063 new Covid cases, taking the total tally to 8,21,446. Although the fresh infections were 6.4 per cent less than Monday when the country logged 1,79,723, the weekly positivity rate has climbed to 8.85 per cent and the daily positivity rate has declined to 10.64 per cent. On the other hand, 4,461 Omicron cases were recorded from 28 states.

    So can we say this is an Omicron wave? While it is relatively easy to test for Covid-19 through a RT-PCR or RAT test, figuring out which variant is responsible requires genome sequencing.

    Data sent to the open access GISAID genomic surveillance showed that more than 30 per cent of the sequenced samples from India were Omicron during the month of December.

    Health experts noted that going by the trend, the majority of the positive cases are likely to be Omicron but confirmation is pending.

    “Currently we can sequence only a small fraction of daily cases, so the question is what percentage of those viruses that are sequenced turn out to be Omicron. That’s how we know that we are in an Omicron wave, since most of the sequences have turned out to be those of Omicron,” Gautam I. Menon, Professor at Departments of Physics and Biology, Ashoka University, told IANS.

    Global data, particularly from South Africa, the UK and the US show that over time as new variants emerge, the one which has better transmissibility and immune evasion takes over the preceding variant.

    “The same happened with Omicron which is now causing more than 90 per cent of new cases in the US and the UK, India is soon set to follow suit,” Dr Dipu T.S., Associate Professor, Division of Infectious Diseases Amrita Hospital, Kochi, told IANS.

    “This just means that there is a variant with better survival advantage and immune evasion ability compared to the previous variant i.e. Delta. But it doesn’t mean that Delta has become weak, rather it gave way to a better evolved variant in time,” he said.

    However, Menon disagreed, saying: “Because Omicron is much more transmissible than Delta, it has effectively displaced Delta while spreading. Delta was largely on the decline in the country anyway, so this was not a surprise.”

    Further, the health experts said the surge in cases may also be reinfections, or breakthrough infections as seen in other countries. A recent study showed that the risk of reinfection with Omicron is 5.4 times greater than Delta. So far, nearly all reinfections have been among people who originally caught another strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and there is no evidence yet been found of anyone being infected twice by Omicron itself.

    It was “too early” for people infected with Omicron to have cleared the virus and then caught it again, Kingston Mills, Professor of Experimental Immunology at Trinity College Dublin, was quoted as saying to Financial Times. It may be clear in six months’ time, he said.

    Moreover, the Omicron variant is also known to be able to evade prior immunity. While vaccines can effectively prevent hospitalisation and death due to Covid, they are less effective in preventing infections.

    “With luck, the severity of this wave will be less than that of the previous wave, mainly because vaccination levels are high and many were infected in the previous Delta wave. But whether there will be a surge in cases which the health system cannot cope with remains to be seen and this is the main worry at the moment,” Menon said.

    Several modelling studies, include from IIT-Kanpur, show that India will soon see a peak in Covid cases by end of January.

    “We believe that the peak in cases in the metros of India should come between January 20 and February 10. The rest of India may see later peaks, but it is unlikely that we will continue to see substantial numbers of cases by March. That will mean an end to this wave, but there may be more surprises in store for us,” Menon said.

  • West Bengal in throes of third COVID wave, infections curve may rise more: Experts

    West Bengal like the rest of the country witnessed its first wave in March 2020 and another after elections to the state assembly in May-June last year.

  • ‘Avoid unnecessary travel, gathering’: Omicron spreading rapidly, 101 cases in India so far, says govt

    By Online Desk

    The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is spreading rapidly and there are 101 cases in India so far, the Union Health Ministry said Friday.

    Nineteen districts in the country were at high risk of a surge in Covid cases, the ministry warned and urged the people to remain vigilant in view of the rising cases of Omicron variants other countries.

    Avoid non-essential travel, mass gatherings and observe low-intensity festivities, the ministry advised.

    The ministry urged the people not to lower their guard and follow Covid-appropriate behaviour such as the use of face masks and maintaining social distance. The ministry also urged people to stay away from large crowds and gatherings.

    So far, Maharashtra has recorded 32 omicron cases, the maximum in the country and Delhi has reported 10 cases. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Kerala and West Bengal have also reported cases of the new variant.

    “Omicron variant reported in 91 countries in the world. WHO has said that Omicron is spreading faster than the Delta variant in South Africa where Delta circulation was low. It’s likely Omicron will outpace Delta variant where community transmission occurs, WHO added,” said Lav Agrawal, Joint Secretary, Health Ministry.

    Agarwal said India is administering Covid vaccine doses at the highest rate in the world and the daily rate of doses administered is 4.8 times the rate of doses administered in the USA and 12.5 times the rate of doses administered in the UK.

    India’s active caseload currently stands at 86,415. The number of daily new cases in the past 20 days remains below 10,000. The weekly positivity rate reduced to 0.65%, the official added.

  • Mild third wave of COVID-19 pandemic likely in December: Maharashtra health minister

    By PTI

    MUMBAI: Maharashtra Health Minister Rajesh Tope said that the third wave of coronavirus pandemic is expected in December but it will be mild in impact.

    Speaking to a news channel, he had said medical oxygen and ICU beds will not be required during the third wave period.

    “The third wave is expected to be mild and medical oxygen and ICU beds will not be required,” he said.

    Speaking about the current COVID-19 scenario, Tope said as 80 per cent of citizens are vaccinated in Maharashtra, the infection level and the mortality rate is less at present.

    Maharashtra had recorded 766 COVID-19 infections and 19 fatalities in the 24 hours preceding Tuesday even as the active cases in the state remained below 10,000 for the third consecutive day, the health department had said on Tuesday.

    Maharashtra’s tally of COVID-19 cases stood at 66,31,297 as of Tuesday.

    Tope said the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic was experienced in September 2020 and the second one in April 2021.

    Tope said he had met Union health minister Mansukh Mandaviya last week seeking the Centre’s nod for administering a booster dose of vaccine for health workers, frontline workers, senior citizens and vulnerable sections and sought to inoculate children in the age group of 12 to 18 years against coronavirus.

    “Mandaviya said he would discuss the issue with ICMR and get back,” Tope added.

    AIIMS director Dr Randeep Guleria had said on Tuesday that a third Covid wave of a magnitude comparable to the first two is unlikely to hit India, as he underlined that absence of surge in cases at the moment suggests that vaccines are still protecting against the virus and there is no need for a booster dose for now.

    Medical experts too had said that a third wave as devastating as the second one is unlikely though cases may rise, perhaps across late December-February, the impact will be milder.

  • ICMR asks states to make proof of completed COVID vaccination must for travel

    Express News Service

    NEW DELHI: Senior scientists associated with the ICMR have come up with a set of prescriptions to lower the risk of a localised COVID-19 surge due to any increase in population density in the wake of the upcoming festive season and people undertaking “revenge travels”.  

    The researchers have suggested to the state governments that they may consider requiring proof of completed vaccination status or a recent COVID negative test result in order to stay at accommodations in destinations within the state.

    These requirements, says their paper, could be applied at the point of arrival in holiday accommodation, where current rules require the collection of traveller detail.

    All travellers should also register their contact details upon arrival to facilitate contact tracing in the event of any upsurge in infection, the researchers associated with the ICMR, including its director general Balram Bhargava, and Imperial College, London, have recommended.

    The analysis noted that following the second wave, there has been an upsurge in domestic travel to holiday destinations, particularly Himalayan towns. Modelling suggests that such travel could enhance the peak of a third wave in these states by almost 50 per cent. Principles of ‘responsible travel’ should be adhered to, the authors have said.

    The researchers said that data from Himachal Pradesh suggests that in a typical holiday season, tourism can increase the population, and thus population density, by 40 per cent. Taking this into consideration, the third-wave peak could increase by up to 47 per cent during the holiday season, and could occur two weeks earlier, compared to a scenario of easing restrictions in the absence of holiday travel.

    The analysis also threw up a scenario where population density in India has a stronger effect on transmission than in the USA and therefore the holiday period could amplify the third-wave peak by up to 103 per cent and cumulative incidence in that wave by 43 per cent, and hasten the timing of the epidemic peak by four weeks, compared to a scenario of easing restrictions in the absence of holiday travel.

    Johnson & Johnson claims 79 per cent protection 

    As India hopes to receive the first batch of single-shot COVID-19 vaccine by US pharma major Johnson & Johnson in October, the company released data from the real world to claim that it offers nearly 81 per cent protection against hospitalisation, even against delta variant.

    Calling it the largest real world evidence study reported to date in the US, the company said the vaccine showed stable effectiveness of 79 per cent against infections and 81 per cent against COVID-related hospitalisations.

    There was no evidence of reduced effectiveness over the study duration, including when the delta variant. The study included 3,90,000 people who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine versus about 1.52 million unvaccinated people from March to late July. 

    R-value drops below 1 in September

    R-value, which reflects how rapidly coronavirus pandemic is spreading, dropped to 0.92 by mid-September after spiralling over 1 by August-end, according to researchers. However, the R-values of major cities, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru, are over 1.

    The R-value of Delhi and Pune are below 1. The R-values of Maharashtra and Kerala are below 1, giving a much needed relief to these two states with the highest number of active cases. The R-value was 1.17 by the end of August. It declined to 1.11 between September 4-7.

  • Maharashtra Deputy CM urges people to follow COVID-19 norms; not make government shut everything during third wave

    By PTI

    PUNE: Expressing concerns over people letting their guard down against COVID-19 in rural areas, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar on Friday urged citizens not to put the state government in a position where it has to shut everything in the event of a third wave of the pandemic.

    Speaking to reporters here, Pawar said the Centre has already cautioned all the states, citing that Kerala and Maharashtra have been reporting the highest number of cases.

    “Unfortunately, in rural areas, some people are becoming lax. They are not scared of coronavirus. They don’t use masks, don’t follow physical distancing, and they have assumed that everything (COVID-19 pandemic) is over. This has led to rise in infections,” Pawar said.

    The chief minister has appealed to people from time to time, but some people politicise the issue and resort to celebrating festivals, he said.

    “All this should stop somewhere. People should not put the state government and administrations in a position where they have to close everything if the third wave hits,” he appealed.

    When asked about reopening of schools, Pawar said discussions are being held with the concerned experts and a decision will be taken.

    “There are two opinions. Some say schools should open after Diwali, while others say they should be reopened in places where the COVID-19 positivity rate is zero. The chief minister, however, will take the decision,” he said.

    Speaking about the BJP and MNS’ demand to open temples in the state, Pawar said as the civic elections are round the corner, every party was striving to make its presence felt, which is why this “emotional” issue was being raised.

    Pawar, who is also the guardian minister of Pune, was speaking to the media after holding a review meeting of the COVID-19 situation in the district.

    The divisional commissioner (Pune division) has informed that at least 5 lakh doses may be available for the district soon, and the authorities will try to speed up the vaccination in slums, he said.

    Pawar further said that while Ganesh Utsav is drawing closer, people must refrain from celebrating the festival on a grand scale.

    “Since all big mandals (organisers) have decided to celebrate the festival in a simple manner and as there will be no decorations, there is no scope for crowding.

    However, we will monitor the situation from day one, and if we find that gatherings are taking place, stricter measures will be taken from the second day,” he said.

  • COVID-19 third wave could peak between October-November: IIT-Kanpur scientist

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: India may see a third wave of COVID-19 peaking between October and November if a more virulent mutant than the existing ones emerge by September, but its intensity is expected to be much lower than the second wave, a scientist involved in the mathematical modelling of the pandemic said on Monday.

    Manindra Agrawal, an IIT-Kanpur scientist who is part of the three-member team of experts that have been tasked with predicting any surge in infections, said if no new virulent emerges, then the situation is unlikely to change.

    Status Quo is when no new mutant comes and New Variant is when 50% more infectious mutant comes by September. As one can see, the only scenario with some semblance of third wave is New Variant one for epsilon = 1/33. In this scenario, new cases rise to ~1 lakh per day. pic.twitter.com/ECNLGgWjLs
    — Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) August 29, 2021
    If the third wave peaks, the country may see only 1 lakh daily cases as against more than 4 lakh when the deadly second wave was at its peak in May. The second wave killed thousands and infected several lakh. “Status Quo is when no new mutant comes and New Variant is when 50% more infectious mutant comes by September. As one can see, the only scenario with some semblance of third wave is New Variant one for epsilon = 1/33. In this scenario, new cases rise to ~1 lakh per day,” Agrawal tweeted.

    Last month, the model suggested that the third wave could peak between October and November and the daily cases could shoot between 1.5 lakh to 2 lakh every day if a more virulent mutant of SARS-CoV2 drive fresh infections.

    However, no mutant that was more infectious than the Delta, which drove the infections during the third wave, emerged. Last week’s forecast was the same, but only the range of daily cases has been brought down to 1-1.5 lakh in the latest one.

    ALSO READ| Gehlot expresses serious concern over rising COVID-19 cases in country

    With the fresh data, the daily infections are further expected to drop in the range of a lakh. Agrawal said the fresh data comprising the vaccinations that have taken place in July and August, the sero-surveys that gave insights about the anti-bodies were factored in while assuming the scenarios.

    According to a study by the researchers of Institute of Mathematical Sciences, the R or the Reproductive value of the coronavirus pandemic was 0.89. It is necessary that the R value is under one that can help arrest the spread of infection.

    Vaccination has been the biggest weapon worldwide to combat coronavirus and more than 63 crore doses have been administered in the country, according to the CoWIN dashboard.

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