News Analysis India

Tag: third Covid wave

  • Third wave in 6-8 weeks if Covid-appropriate behaviour not followed: AIIMS chief

    By PTI
    NEW DELHI: If Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed and crowding not prevented, the next wave of the viral infection can strike the country in the next six to eight weeks, AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria warned on Saturday.

    Until a sizeable number of the population are vaccinated, Covid-appropriate behaviour needs to be followed aggressively, he said and stressed on the need for stricter surveillance and area-specific lockdowns in case of a significant surge.

    Guleria reiterated that till now, there is no evidence to suggest that children will be affected more in the next wave of the infection.

    Earlier, India’s epidemiologists had indicated that a third wave of COVID-19 is inevitable and is likely to start from September-October.

    India was hit severely by a brutal second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in April and May, claiming a massive number of lives daily, with shortage in oxygen supply at various hospitals adding to the woes.

    However, the number of cases have shown a downward trend and the positivity rate too has been shrinking in the last several days.

    ALSO READ: Only 5% of India fully vaccinated against Covid after 5 months of vaccination drive

    From a daily case count of over 4 lakh, the number of new COVID-19 cases has been hovering around 60,000 in the last couple of days.

    “If Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed, the third wave can happen in six to eight weeks. We need to work aggressively to prevent another large wave till vaccination kicks in,” Guleria told PTI.

    There needs to be aggressive surveillance strategy in Covid hotspots and lockdowns in case of any significant surge.

    The moment a significant surge in cases in noted in a particular area and the positivity rate goes beyond 5 per cent, area-specific lockdown and containment measures should be implemented, he said.

    “However, a national-level lockdown cannot be a solution (to rein in the pandemic) keeping economic activity in mind.”

    ALSO READ | Covid vaccination lowers chances of hospitalisation by 75-80 per cent, says Govt

    With 60,753 new Covid cases being reported in a day, India’s total tally rose to 2,98,23,546, while the number of active cases stand at 7,60,019, the lowest in 74 days, according to Union health ministry data updated on Saturday.

    The death toll climbed to 3,85,137 with 1,647 fresh fatalities and active cases comprise 2.55 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate has improved to 96.16 per cent, the data updated at 8 am showed.

  • Reserve 10% Covid ICU beds for children during future Covid waves: Expert group

    By Express News Service
    NEW DELHI: While stressing that there is no evidence so far that kids are at higher risk for the future Covid waves, an expert group of The Lancet COVID-19 Commission India Task Force has urged the government to earmark 10% of adult Covid ICU facilities for children in cases there are surges ahead.

    The group, comprising of senior paediatricians from many cities in India, has also said that there is a need to consider vaccination for kids urgently.

    “We urge the government to earmark at least 10% of the adult Covid ICU beds for children, 20 % in covid wards, with sufficient isolation rooms so that healthy parents can stay with their children as needed,” a 19-page report by the expert group has said.

    It also recommended adding ICU and high dependency unit beds in the non-covid paediatric ward as it is anticipated that some cases of the multi-system inflammatory syndrome, a known post-Covid complication in some kids, maybe observed in future waves.

    Among the confirmed cases of Covid-19 in India, less than 12% were children and young adults under the age of 20 years and only 3-4% were children under the age of 10 years.

    In the absence of a national database on clinical presentation and outcomes of infected children during the two surges noted thus far, data of approximately 2600 hospitalized children below the age of 10 years, excluding neonates, from 10 hospitals in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Maharashtra, and Delhi-NCR region was collected and analyzed.

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    It was observed that mortality rate amongst hospitalized Covid-19 positive children below the age of 10 years was 2.4%, about 4 % of children who died had comorbidities, 9 % of all hospitalized Covid positive children presented with severe illness, under 10 years of age and the findings were similar during the two surges of Covid-19 pandemic so far.

    Based on data available, there appears to be no substantial evidence to suggest that children would be more affected or would have greater illness severity due to Covid-19 infection in the anticipated third wave, the experts noted adding that children have milder disease, better prognosis, and low mortality in comparison to adults.

    “However, infants and children with underlying illness may be at higher risk and will require greater monitoring,” said the report adding that as there is insufficient information currently to estimate risk in children due to the new SARS Cov 2 variants and the consequences in children due to increased adult vaccination rates.

    The experts said that they anticipated an increase in paediatric cases, corresponding to the expected increase in absolute numbers and the wave and the proportion of children of all confirmed cases may also be expected to increase because a substantial proportion of the adult population is expected to be completely vaccinated.

    However, only a small minority of children are expected to require critical care, they insisted.

    Yet, the experts have said that timely completion of the vaccine trials in children will substantially accelerate the efforts for ensuring protection, generate data, and guide immediate policy actions.

    “We recommend a more ‘at-risk’ approach for consideration and adoption, prioritizing adolescent age groups including children with comorbidities (immunosuppression, neuro disabilities, asthma, gastrointestinal conditions, or diabetes), obesity, and young adults who become more susceptible to worsening the disease and need for critical care,” said their report. 

  • ‘Strict measures’ can help avoid third Covid wave, says govt’s principal scientific advisor

    By Express News Service
    NEW DELHI: Just two days after declaring that a third Covid wave is “inevitable” in India, the Union government’s principal scientific advisor took a U-turn on Friday and said that strong containment measures and effective implementation of guidelines can help the country avoid it completely.

    “If we take strong measures, the third wave may not happen in all the places or indeed anywhere at all,” said K VijayRaghvan on Friday. “It depends much on how effectively the guidance is implemented at the local level, in the states, in districts and in the cities everywhere.”

    Speaking at a press briefing on the Covid status in the country, VijayRaghavan said the third wave depends on how effectively the guidance is implemented at the local level, in the states, in districts, and in the cities across the country.

    The statement comes even as the second wave of the covid pandemic in India is showing no signs of abetment yet. On Thursday alone, over 4.14 lakh daily infections were recorded, the highest tally in a 24 hour period so far.

    ALSO READ | COVID-19 not just lung disease, can also cause dangerous blood clots: Experts

    The sweeping collapse of the healthcare infrastructure across the country too continues with patients in most states struggling to get access to timely and adequate treatment.

    The country’s daily death toll crossed 2.34 lakh and the active Covid cases stand at a whopping 3,64,5164. 

    As the virus mutates further, the third wave of Covid infection is inevitable and it is necessary to be prepared for new waves, VijayRaghavan had cautioned on Wednesday.

    “A phase three is inevitable, given the higher levels of circulating virus but it is not clear on what time scale this phase three will occur. We should prepare for new waves,” he had said.

    The scientific advisor to the government had also said that it was not expected that the second wave would hit the country with such ferocity.

    Many experts have said that while multiple waves in a pandemic are expected, the certainty with which VijayRaghvan shared his opinion was not based on any evidence or data.