News Analysis India

Tag: third Covid wave

  • Delta-Omicron combo could fuel third Covid wave: Experts

    By Express News Service

    KOCHI: With the state seemingly witnessing the start of the third Covid wave, the sharp increase in the number of cases reported daily could indicate the presence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the coronavirus in the population though the health authorities are yet to confirm community transmission. Experts say a combination of the Delta variant, which was the reason for the second wave, and Omicron could fuel the surge. 

    Supporting that argument, the number of Omicron cases has risen with 280 cases recorded in the state till Thursday. That may not be an accurate number considering the sudden increase in infections and the active caseload. The test positivity rate (TPR) that stood at 4.38% last Friday has risen to 6.8%.

    “It is known that the transmissibility of the Omicron variant is very high compared to that of Delta. So Kerala can expect a huge rise in daily Covid cases. Over the past few days, the TPR and the number of cases have gone up. At this stage, we cannot exclude the presence of Omicron in the community. However, population immunity is the key, and since the Delta wave, Kerala has come a long way in terms of vaccination coverage,” said Dr Padmanabha Shenoy, immunologist and public health expert.

    Experts also believe that the number of Covid tests for suspected cases has dropped due to the current flu season. Though Omicron symptoms are similar to that of common cold, scientists across the world have warned people not to take the infection lightly.

    “A lot of general flu cases are seen at hospitals these days, but not all are getting tested for Covid. So we don’t know how many of the cases reported here are caused by Omicron. Since we are staring at the third wave, it is important that people with Covid-like symptoms get tested and stay in isolation. But it might be to our advantage that a large proportion of the country’s population has acquired immunity through infection rather than through vaccination.,” Dr Shenoy said.

    According to Dr Dipu T S, an associate professor with the internal medicine department of Amrita Hospitals in Kochi, the waning vaccine-induced immunity of the community can be regained to an extent with the booster dose. 

    “By the end of six to nine months after vaccination, the vaccine-induced immunity wanes. At that stage, the number of at-risk population — people at risk of getting the infection again —would rise. With the third dose of the vaccine, we can target those facing the risk of reinfection and breakthrough infection,” Dr Dipu said.

    The transmissibility of Omicron is four times that of Delta, he pointed out. “So the possibility of infection is very high even with a short interaction. When the infective index goes up, the number of people getting infected at a given time would be massive. Vaccination will definitely help. ,” he said.

  • Third Covid wave of magnitude comparable to first two unlikely to hit India: Guleria

    On the need for a booster dose, he said there is no surge in cases as such at the moment which suggests that vaccines are still protecting against coronavirus.

  • Centre promises 3,600 oxygen plants to tackle a possible third Covid wave

    Express News Service

    NEW DELHI: Amid a looming threat of the third Covid wave in India, the Centre has announced that 3,631 oxygen PSA plants are being installed in the country—nearly half of which will be installed through central resources.

    These plants will have the capacity to generate about 4,800 MT of medical oxygen. In a press briefing on Thursday, Union health secretary Rajesh Bhushan said that of the planned oxygen plants to be installed in hospitals, 1,595 or about 47% have already been commissioned.

    As per the details shared, of the total 3,651 PSA plants sanctioned with 4,751 MT capacity generation when commissioned, 1,491 plants with 2,281 MT have been commissioned with central support.

    Nearly 2,140 with 2,289 MT capacity on the other hand are planned with the states and other sources such as states, urban local bodies, MPLAD, and through CSR activities.

    Of the 1,595 PSA plants commissioned so far with a capacity of 2,088 MT medical oxygen generation, 731 (with 1024 MT) PSA plants have been set up with central resources.

    These plants are of utmost importance given that the second wave of the pandemic had triggered a massive shortage of the crucial oxygen supply in most parts of the country during April-May this year.

    ALSO READ | Kerala logs 68 per cent of total COVID-19 cases reported in India: Union Health Ministry

    The Union health ministry, while noting that situation in Mizoram with Covid cases surging, also urged states to prepare ahead for any potential spike highlighting that as the situation is stable with cases reducing even in Kerala, the months of October and November would be critical given the festive season.

    “The next quarter will be critical. We advise states and municipal corporations to prepare ahead to ensure best models of home care and also to prepare infrastructure,” V K Paul, member (health) Niti Aayog said.

    Figures shared also showed that three in five Indian adults—or 62 %- have now been covered with at least one Covid vaccine dose and while one in every five –or 20 % of the adult population is now fully immunised.

    The latest government data showed Chandigarh entering the coveted league of states and UTs to have ensured inoculation of their entire adult population with at least the first shot against coronavirus.

    The country, by Thursday evening, had seen a total of 77.1 crore Covid jabs administered in India of which 58.26 lakh were administered in a day.

    Commenting on the scale of inoculation the Centre said that in the first 15 days of September over 11 crore doses—or about 76 lakh vaccinations in a day on an average– have been administered which is double of the doses given through the entire month of May.

  • Experts divided on the possibility of a big third Covid wave in India

    Express News Service

    NEW DELHI: A warning by some experts on a probable nationwide third Covid-19 wave particularly bad for children may have had the Union and state governments scampering to prepare for the worst but the house is divided on the possibility.

    The hypothesis that the impending third wave of the pandemic may mainly target children, who are not eligible for Covid-19 vaccination yet, was floated by various healthcare experts, including noted cardiologist Devi Shetty.

    More recently, an expert panel, set up by the National Institute of Disaster Management under the Ministry of Home Affairs, predicted a third wave hitting the country anytime between September and October while suggesting the need to significantly ramp up the pace of vaccination.

    The report by the committee said that children will be at similar risk as adults since paediatric facilities, doctors and equipment like ventilators and ambulances are nowhere close to what may be required in case a large number of them become infected.

    The assessment submitted to the Prime Minister’s Office observed that as the percentage of fully vaccinated people in the country is very low, the pace of vaccination needs to be ramped up failing which India could witness up to six lakh cases per day in the next wave.

    Two of India’s foremost experts however strongly differed in their assessments.

    “I am sceptical about there being a big third wave simply because the sero-surveillance shows about two-thirds of the people in India are already exposed to the virus. There will be localised outbreaks in places with lower exposure as we are seeing in Kerala,” said virologist Shahid Jameel.

    He added that the timing and magnitude of the third wave will depend upon how well we continue to follow Covid protocols, how fast the government is able to vaccinate the population at risk and whether the virus will mutate into a variant that effectively escapes pre-existing immunity.

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    “While the third is a random process, it is facilitated by opportunities given to the virus if the first two factors are not followed,” said Jameel, adding that India needs to be very careful during the Dussehra-Diwali festivities when a lot of people come together.

    K Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India and member of the national Covid-19 task force, too said that whether, when and how severely a third wave will emerge in India is subject to many variable factors.

    “They are related to the number of susceptible persons in different parts of the country, how many of those persons will expose themselves to the virus by not following  Covid appropriate behaviour, how many super-spreader gatherings the authorities fail to prevent, how many of those who are infected become symptomatic and are properly tested and isolated, how contacts too quarantine themselves and whether new variants will enter the country from outside or will emerge from within the country,” he said.

    Reddy added that the number of susceptible persons will vary across the country, depending on how many persons have been already infected or vaccinated.

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    “With travel having resumed, even these numbers will change as people enter or exit a location. In such a complex adaptive system, linear models will not work well. Instead of speculative debates, we should focus our collective will and energy on controlling each of the factors that can lead to a third wave. If we do so, the third wave will be a ripple rather than a tidal wave, whenever it comes,” he stressed. 

  • Rajasthan relieved as 30 districts report zero new Covid-19 cases

    Express News Service

    JAIPUR: Amid the fears of a possible third wave, Rajasthan is currently going through a remarkable Covid-free phase. The state registered just 3 cases on Thursday which is the lowest it has ever seen in a single day since the start of the pandemic. 

    In addition, it’s now nearly a month since the state saw a single Covid-related death. Also, the state has registered major success administering 4 crore doses whereby over one crore people in the state have now got both doses. As a result, over 20% of the state’s eligible population is now fully vaccinated. Rajasthan is the only state to achieve such a milestone. 

    Rajasthan is now moving towards a Corona-free phase. As many as 30 out of 33 districts in Rajasthan registered no new Covid cases in the past 24 hours. The state saw just 3 new cases on Thursday — the lowest in the 542 days of the coronavirus era. Only Jaipur, Alwar, and Baran districts saw one new case each and the state now has just 107 active cases – easily the lowest figure among the large states of the country. 

    ALSO READ | 100 days of Pinarayi govt: No respite from Covid, ministers a letdown

    In terms of Covid deaths, not one person succumbed to the infection in the past 24 hours. In fact, all through the month of August, Rajasthan has not seen a single Covid death and the total death toll in the state stands at 8954. 

    Significantly, of the 30,905 samples, only 3 patients tested positive on Thursday. As a result, the positivity rate came to just 0.009% which is the lowest ever recorded in the state.

    While the second wave has almost vanished, the health department is now focusing on vaccination. The number of beneficiaries who have got the second dose has crossed the figure of 1 crore. Of the total number of 5.14 crore people eligible for vaccination in the state, 1,00,89,107 have now received both the doses. Another 3.14 crore have received their first doses. In effect, over 60% of the people in the state have now been given at least one dose from the 3177 vaccination sites functional in the state. 

    Ironically, despite all these successes, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, who has been suffering from post-Covid complications, was rushed to hospital on Friday morning after he complained of severe chest pain. The angioplasty was successfully done on him in a few hours at Jaipur’s SMS Hospital. 

    According to the Health Bulletin, Dr. Sudhir Bhandari, Superintendent of SMS Hospital, the Chief Minister’s health is improving now. Dr. Bhandari said, “CM’s angioplasty has been successful and now his tests are normal. After angioplasty, he will be kept under observation for 24 hours. The CM has been advised to stay in the hospital for 2-3 days. He is feeling better now.” 

  • Doubly vaxxed? You could still be a coronavirus carrier

    Express News Service
    BENGALURU: The Centre for Disease Control recently changed its testing guidelines for the double-dose vaccinated, and made it mandatory for them too to be tested, if exposed to Covid-19. Health experts in India warn that those who are fully vaccinated should be extra mindful of not just breakthrough infections and transmission of infection, but also know that vaccinated people could play a key role in transmission.

    “People were waiting for the vaccine. Once they took both shots, risk-taking behaviour like moving out, meeting people, not wearing masks etc has gone up. In some areas with low transmission or low seropositivity till now, it could result in sustained transmission of the infection to another individual who is not vaccinated,” said Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, epidemiologist, policy and vaccine expert.He explains that this could even be the reason why some metropolitan cities are seeing a high number of infections in high-rise buildings, where most residents are double-vaccinated but socio-economic engagements are happening. 

    Agreeing with this and expressing concern on breakthrough infections, Dr Giridhara Babu R, senior epidemiologist and member of the Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee says, “It is the responsibility of vaccinated people to protect those who do not have the privilege of getting vaccinated yet. Vaccination does not mean they’re immune to the infection. It only means they’re protected against death or hospitalisation, if they get infected. Therefore, vaccinated persons should adhere to strict masking, and follow other Covid-appropriate behaviour that minimises risk.” 

    Explaining the reason for such transmission, Dr S N Aravinda, Consultant, Internal Medicine, Aster RV Hospital, says, “Some individuals may not have sufficient antibody response to the vaccine, and antibodies post vaccination do not stay permanently, which is why booster shots are required after a certain period of time. However, with new variants of concern, the vaccine itself may not be sufficient for protection from all mutations of Covid. While the virus has minimal effect on those who are fully vaccinated, and they are asymptomatic, they can still be carriers of the virus and spread it to other people who are more at risk.”

    If taking vaccination leads to reckless behaviour and people stop wearing masks, hand hygiene and social distancing, it will lead to a higher risk of virus mutations and its continued spread, and prolong the pandemic, he adds. 

    Following Covid-appropriate behaviour is most important, says Dr Brunda, Consultant – Internal Medicine, Aster CMI Hospital. “Along with vaccination, following Covid-appropriate behaviour such as regular hand washing, social distancing and wearing of masks at all times is the key to curtail infections. People should not get complacent and must follow self-discipline.”

  • Immunity, behaviour, vaccine coverage will determine third Covid wave

    Express News Service
    BENGALURU: While there is much speculation about the timing and magnitude of the third wave in Karnataka, experts believe that waning immunity, emergence of a more transmissible variant, people’s behaviour during the lockdown relaxations, and vaccination coverage will decide the severity and arrival of the third wave. 

    “Karnataka is seeing a reduction in the number of Covid-19 cases, with most of the districts reporting single-digit cases. But the daily new infections are still not beyond the expected mark. The numbers continue to remain in four digits, indicating no sharp decline. At this time, there are a few factors which will decide not just the third wave but future waves too,” explained Dr Manjunath CN, Director of Jayadeva Institute of Cardiology, and member, Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee.

    Interestingly, senior epidemiologists explain that even those who have seen infections in the first wave could be reinfected in the third wave, if their immunity has waned. “The festive season begins in August.

    While the third wave is predicted around the same time, people who were exposed to Covid-19 in the first wave would also show a significant waning of antibodies by then. Current data suggests they would still get infected, but would be protected from severe disease, hospitalisation and mortality,” explains a senior doctor from the TAC. 

    Experts who have been observing the rise and fall of Covid cases, say it is the nature of the virus to mutate, and the mutation happens faster when the number of cases is high. So the main factor for the arrival of the third wave would be complacency among people, which can lead to a high number of cases, and hence, mutations and arrival of new variants.

    “All these are interconnected. A virus mutating and becoming more infectious is not in our control. But if we don’t allow the virus to replicate in our body, the mutations can definitely be avoided, for which we need to control human behaviour. By following Covid-appropriate behaviour, one can stop these waves altogether. There was an induced, forced control introduced in the form of a lockdown, and a second wave was controlled,” Dr Vishal Rao, Dean, Centre for Academic Research, HCG Hospitals, and member of Genome Sequencing Committee, explained. 

    Dr Manjunath says that at no cost should superspreader events be allowed, and enforcement of appropriate Covid-19 behaviour should be the government’s focus. As far as variants are concerned, India and even Karnataka have so far seen two highly infectious variants — Alpha and Delta.  

    “Between early March and end of May, Delta became the dominant variant. The third wave will also be dominated by the same variant, more or less. But if there is a new mutation with high transmissibility, then the third wave could be much more severe than the second wave,” explained Dr Rao.

    Meanwhile, doctors point out that vaccination has to be strictly speeded up to ensure that hospitalisation and mortality is low and lessens the burden on the healthcare system, and warn that the situation can be similar or worse than the second wave.

  • Taking care of vulnerable kids first step to stave off third Covid wave

    Express News Service
    BENGALURU: In preparation for the predicted third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, experts have pointed out that the government should identify the vulnerable among children, and make arrangements for their protection on priority, including vaccinating them. 

    The third wave is predicted to hit in September-October, and children are said to be largely affected as a majority of the adult population will be vaccinated by then. However, the vaccine for children — the Zydus Covid vaccine — is yet to get approval for use. Hence, experts say that vulnerable children need to be identified at the earliest, so they are vaccinated on priority when the vaccine is approved. 

    Dr Srikanta J T, Consultant – Paediatric Pulmonology and Sleep Medicine, Aster CMI Hospital and member of the Covid-19 task force, said, “Vulnerable paediatric population includes children who are overweight or obese, children with underlying medical conditions like diabetes, renal diseases, chronic lung issues, hematological conditions like sickle cell disease and neurological conditions.”

    Non-government organisations work with these kids and maintain a database of the vulnerable group. If the government can access this data and vaccinate them on priority basis, it will mitigate the risk of these children contracting the dreaded disease. He said vulnerable children can also be given already available vaccines like the influenza shot, which is similar.

    Dr Sayed Mujahid Husain, Consultant Paediatrician & Neonatologist, Good Will Children’s Clinic, Bengaluru, said the most susceptible group is kids who have underlying comorbidities like asthma, allergic rhinitis, rheumatoid arthritis, chronic kidney-related issues and other immunodeficiency disorders. 

    “Parents must make sure that such vulnerable children are taken care of with utmost precautions, like ensuring they are on regular medication as prescribed, healthy nutrition, hygiene and regular health check-ups.” he said. 

    Dr Srikanta stated that if there is a tailor-made vaccine for children aged up to 18, with good immunogenicity, efficacy and safety profile, then vaccinating them in a very short span of time will not only reduce their exposure to risk in the third wave, but also probably end the pandemic (if at least 70 per cent of adults are vaccinated).

    Meanwhile, Dr Rakshay Shetty, Head, Paediatric Intensive Care Services, Rainbow Children’s Hospital, Marathahalli, said children less than one year and more than 12 years old, tend to be affected with severe forms of Covid.

    “However, post-Covid complications, like Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) appears to affect healthy children, mostly above 5 years of age. It affects 1 in 50,000 children, and 2/3rd of them need ICU admission. If recognised early, they have good outcomes if treated correctly. The best way to keep children safe is to ensure that adults take vaccine shots. That will decrease circulation of the virus in the community. Everyone, including vaccinated adults, should continue wearing masks and follow physical distancing whenever possible, he said.

  • IMA urges Uttarakhand CM to ‘disallow’ Kanwar Yatra as fear of third Covid wave looms large

    Express News Service
    DEHRADUN: Uttarakhand chapter of Indian Medical Association on Monday wrote to Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami to disallow the proposal of Kanwar Yatra amid apprehensions of Covid third wave.

    “Sir, after the first wave, we became off-guard and could not follow the guidelines of the central government delineated for this pandemic which was a gross negligence on our part and consequently lost several of our kins in the menace of the second wave of the Covid pandemic,” said Dr Ajay Khanna, state secretary of Uttarakhand chapter of the IMA requesting the CM to ‘disallow’ the yatra. 

    The letter comes after CM’s comments that God would not want people to lose their lives. 

    The Kanwar Yatra has become an issue one with the state government of Uttar Pradesh requesting the state government to allow the Yatra with a few restrictions.

    The IMA secretary, on the behalf of the association, further added that the third wave of Covid pandemic is ready to knock on the door as per the statements of several specialists who wrote the letter, “Learning from our previous failure, we should not allow the devotees to enter our state and keep it safe from the third wave of Covid. Even our Hon’ble Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi Ji has today expressed concerns regarding our carelessness in following the Covid protocol.”

    Later in the day, Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami reiterated: “Kanwar Yatra is a matter of faith. My decision regarding this will be taken keeping in mind people’s lives. We cannot allow this pandemic to claim the lives of the people.”

    On June 30, 2021, the state government issued orders to cancel the yatra due to the ongoing Covid situation.

    The state government had cancelled the yatra last year too in the wake of the epidemic. However, the Char Dham Yatra was allowed from June 2020 for state residents and later for residents of other states giving some respite to the sector.  

  • Quick serosurvey will give us data to say if there’ll be third Covid wave: Dr Shahid Jameel

    Express News Service
    BENGALURU: While some of the states are yet again witnessing a rise in Covid-19 cases, hinting at a possible third wave, Dr Shahid Jameel, renowned virologist and former chairman of the Indian SARS-COV-2 Genomics Consortia (INSACOG), and also one of the co-founders of Ignite Life, in an exclusive interview to TNSE says that India needs a quick seroprevalence study to know if there will be a consorted peak or a ripple, or how and when each state may peak.

    He also speaks about Ignite Life Science Foundation’s first funds granted by Biocon founder and executive chairperson Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw to trigger funding for research on mRNA-based vaccines. 

    Will the coming together of two ‘variants of concern’, the Delta and Delta-plus, spark a third wave?The third wave is now dependent on three things – 1) Behaviour of people post relaxation measures; 2) How many people have already been exposed and how many are yet to be vaccinated. So far, about 360 million doses have been given, which means roughly about 24 per cent of people have got one dose.

    This is still a small number. The third wave depends on how many people have been exposed and we don’t have good estimates of that. Ideally, there should be a serosurvey done very quickly to find out what percentage of people in India are exposed and that will provide the right kind of data to predict whether there will be enough of a third wave or not. If 70 per cent of people have already been exposed, the nature of things will be very different than 50 per cent being exposed and 50 per cent not exposed; 3) Whether there will be a more infectious variant emerging. By more infectious, I mean more infectious than the Delta variant. Delta was about 100 per cent more infectious than Alpha. Whether there will be another variant that is significantly more infectious than Delta will decide whether there will be a big third wave. Delta-plus is not very infectious. What about vaccines for children? Will there be a need for it?

    People saying that children will be more affected are basing it on the assumption that children have largely been left unexposed. While there is no reason to make that assumption, I do not believe that children are less exposed. I think if we do a proper serosurvey, we will know that they are as exposed as adults. If our regulator approves that, then the DNA vaccine can be made available for children. Though I agree that children should be tested before giving it to them, I don’t know of any vaccine that is safe for adults, but unsafe for children. The scenario looks good and we should just vaccinate children.

    Do you think that labs under INSACOG are doing enough sequencing? Should they rope in private players? Sequencing is done strategically. It is not about brute numbers, but yes, they are important. Because, unless you sequence at scale, you may not be able to find what is beginning to emerge. The INSACOG is sequencing at around 0.03 per cent and even at that rate, it did find the Delta-plus emerging precedently. What we need is smart and strategic sequencing, more in areas where it is still emerging instead of areas where it is subsiding. I think it is working well. There are a lot of companies in India that have a lot of sequencing capacity. Yes, I do believe that private players should be allowed in and they should work within a certain mandate and within a certain reporting structure, but strengths of private players should be utilised.

    Ignite Life Science Foundation has awarded its first grant for ‘pandemic preparedness’ research. How important will this kind of research be? And what will be the focus of research?The mission of Ignite is to fill the space between government funding and large foundations. We do a lot of hand-holding. The whole idea is, whoever we fund, we make it possible for them to succeed. The very first grant was made possible by a very generous donation by  Biocon founder and executive chairperson Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw. So we were able to roll out our first grant and that was awarded to IISc, Bengaluru and Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, Faridabad. The idea is to develop an RNA vaccine platform and also to try and make it thermostable. Remember, India doesn’t have an RNA vaccine platform. Our first plan is to see if we can develop a vaccine with an RNA platform and can be stored in the fridge at 4 degrees Celsius. Yes, pandemic preparedness is  very important, but so is antimicrobial resistance and nutrition. There are many things. We are working on many of those. But it depends on philanthropic donations. The time frame for the grant is three years. 

    Was there any particular reason for your exit from the INSACOG?That’s not a story at all. Don’t look back, look ahead!