Coimbatore: As the BJP looks to get the lotus to bloom in Tamil Nadu, the stumbling block for the national party would be its anti-minority image in a state where minorities are among the highest in any state in the country, said experts and analysts ahead of the upcoming polls on April 19.
As per the Census in 2011, Hindus are a majority in the state constituting 87.58% of Tamil Nadu’s 7.21 crore. The Muslim population comprise 5.86% of the total population while the Christians make up 6.12%.
The BJP has laid constant electioneering siege with the prime minister making multiple visits to Tamil Nadu. While the party’s popularity has been growing owing to leaders like the BJP state chief Annamalai, who is being touted as a dark horse who could spring a surprise in Coimbatore this election. However, the demographics of the state might come in the way of the BJP’s ambitious plans.This time, the party has also taken the decision to ditch its alliance with the AIADMK and go solo in as many as 19 of the 39 constituencies and contest four others with the help of its allies. However, analysts said the BJP’s performance in these constituencies may suffer owing to their perception of being against minorities, despite their best efforts to shed this image through vigorous outreach.
During his 168-day ‘yatra’ by foot and on wheels from Rameswaram, Annamalai met several leaders from Muslim and christian communities, the dialogue with these leaders was to convey to minority community leaders that the BJP was not against them in any way and was only keen on fighting terrorism, perpetrated by militant organisations.
On Saturday too Annamalai met Bishop Paul Alappat and the members of the Coimbatore Diocese pastoral council in Ramanthapuram and Coimbatore and later wrote on ‘X’ “Bishop Paul Alappat’s wisdom & community service has inspired countless lives,” Annamalai said on X (formerly Twitter). While the BJP is reaching out to the communities, there is scepticism on whether this approach would work. “The anti-minority tag of the BJP will cost them dearly,” political analyst Tharasu Shyam told ET. “The minority percentage in Tamil Nadu varies from 10-20% and constituencies like Vellore and Ramanathapuram have got a heavy concentration of Muslims. The BJP may come second in about four constituencies. Theni, Vellore, Dharmapuri and Tirunelveli are witnessing tough competition by the BJP alliance, but ultimately the numerical strength of the DMK alliance and anti-minority tag of BJP is likely to prevail.”
A report by the Pew Research Center said the largest numbers of Christians in India were still concentrated in the Southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. It went on to add that the Christian population grew the most in Tamil Nadu of all the states in India, increasing by 6 lakh to touch 40 lakhs.
“The demographic of Tamil Nadu with its larger minority populations has always made it harder for parties that are perceived as being anti-minority to make a mark,” political analyst N Sathiya Moorthy said. “Both the minorities combined should make up around 15-20% of the total population in Tamil Nadu and so parties they perceive to support them start with that advantage.”
For example, he said, if the combined percentage stood at 15%, then most of it will likely go to the DMK-Congress combine – giving them an edge over rivals.
“The question is how many of the minority votes may shift to the AIADMK because they are not aligning with the BJP. I don’t see that happening because suddenly the BJP and Modi have become election issues this time,” Moorthy said.
As per the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), Christians in Tamil Nadu are spread across nearly all the districts, but their presence is relatively higher in a few pockets spread across different parts of the state. Their highest presence is in the south, particularly in Kanyakumari, home to one-fifth of all the Christians in the state.
The CPS said that besides Kanyakumari, the growth of Christians was ‘remarkable’ in Kancheepuram and Thiruvallur districts that surround Chennai city. It also observed that the number and share of Muslims in Tamil Nadu was almost like that of the Christians but that they were spread more uniformly across the state. It said their highest concentration is in Ramanathapuram, where they formed 15.4% of the population.
“Religious polarisation will not work in Tamil Nadu because this is the land of social reformer EVR (Periyar),” senior journalist S Murari said. “The BJP knows minorities won’t vote for it, so it is banking on majority Hindus by saying the DMK is anti-God and anti-Hindu and like the Congress, it is a party of corrupt dynasts.”