News Analysis India

Tag: Monsoon

  • Zika silently spreading across India indicating local transmission: Study

    Express News Service

    NEW DELHI: Zika is silently spreading across almost all parts of India and in areas where it had never been reported earlier, thus establishing local transmission of the disease, according to scientists at the Indian Institute of Medical Research (ICMR)-National Institute of Virology (NIV) in Pune. 

    The study, published in Frontiers of Microbiology, said there would be an increase in Zika cases during monsoon when vector-borne diseases like dengue and chikungunya see a hike. 

    According to the lead author, Dr Pragya Yadav, a senior scientist at ICMR-NIV, Pune, from 2017 to 2021, the presence of Zika has been reported in 16 states and union territories of India. 

    The study, like, a vector-borne diseases detected in newer states of India amidst the Covid-19 pandemic, said the virus, spread by daytime-active Aedes mosquitoes and has been found in Delhi, Amritsar (Punjab), Aligarh and Kanpur (Uttar Pradesh), Jaipur and Jodhpur (Rajasthan), Pune (Maharashtra), Ranchi (Jharkhand) Hyderabad (Telangana) and Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala)- places which have a high population density.

    Our study indicates the spread of the Zika virus to several states of India and an urgent need to strengthen its surveillance, a study, which was published recently, he said.

    The study said continuous and enhanced surveillance for Zika along with dengue and chikungunya with emphasis on the ante-natal screening is the need of the hour  as it is associated with microcephaly and congenital disabilities in newborn babies.

    It highlighted that when the whole health system was focused on fighting Covid-19 and its related aspect in a long tiring battle, vector control was a compromise and massive rain in some of these states provided additional opportunities to enhance the breeding sites and mosquito population. 

    Dr Yadav said as, after 2020, public health surveillance of the Zika virus could not be continued with the same vigour due to the Covid-19 outbreak; they stored the samples for Zika testing for the future.  

    As the Zika outbreaks were reported from distant locations over six months in 2021, a retrospective screening of Zika from May to October was done to understand the extent of the spread of the disease in India, she added.

    Around 1,520 patient’s samples, out of which 67 were found positive for Zika, three of which were cases of co-infection. All 67 like-positive patients were symptomatic with fever and rashes. 

    The study said that about 13.43 percent of patients were hospitalised, while 86.56 percent (58) of the cases were managed on an outpatient basis. Four patients faced severe respiratory distress, one patient had seizures, and one case of suspected mild microcephaly at birth was reported from Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala.

    What was worrying was that no history of inter-state travel or contact with a Zika-positive traveller could be found.

    Zika virus, which was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in January 2016 by the World Health Organisation (WHO), has so far been detected in Gujarat (2017), Tamil Nadu (2017), Rajasthan (2018), Madhya Pradesh (2018). In 2021, Zika was reported in Kerala, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra.

    With the massive upscaling of the Covid-19 RT-PCR testing laboratories in India, this network can also be re-purposed for augmenting Zika testing in the country. Along with these efforts, it is also essential not to lose sight of effective vector control measures and focus on developing a safe and effective vaccine for Zika, which could be administered to pregnant women, the report said.

  • Monsoon enters north-east, heavy rains likely in Assam, Meghalaya 

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: After a brief lull, the Bay of Bengal arm of the south-west monsoon has stirred into action and entered north-eastern parts of the country and is set to bring heavy rains over Assam and Meghalaya over the next two days, the IMD said Thursday.

    “Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some parts of northwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of northeast & eastcentral Bay of Bengal and most parts of Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland,” the India Meteorological Department said.

    On Wednesday, the monsoon had covered Bengaluru, Chikmagluru, Karwar.

    Under the influence of monsoonal westerly winds from the Arabian Sea over the south peninsular India, the weather office has forecast fairly widespread rainfall over coastal and south Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep and over the next five days.

    It has also forecast isolated to scattered rains over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during next five days.

    Maximum temperatures have been rising gradually over northwest India and the weather office has issued heatwave warnings over Rajasthan, south Punjab and south Haryana over the next two days.

    The weather office had upgraded its forecast for a normal monsoon this year on Monday. It said that monsoon rains would be fairly well-distributed across the country, except in north-eastern parts of the country and extreme south-western peninsula.

    The IMD had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 29, three days ahead of the normal onset date of June 1.

  • Dust storms in Middle Eastern deserts could boost rainfall over India, says IIT study

    By Express News Service

    NEW DELHI: The impact of climate change over the monsoon in India has been clearly evident in terms of erratic rainfall patterns. However, a new study shows that climate change could trigger an increased frequency of dust storms in the Middle East, which is likely to enhance rainfall in India during the monsoon season.

    The study led by researchers at Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar (IIT-B) shows that dust emitted from the Middle Eastern deserts transported to the Arabian Sea could enhance rainfall over South Asia, especially during severe drought episodes over the Indian region.

    Desert dust aerosols emitted from Arabian and North African deserts increase rainfall over India at short time scales of about a week or two. This is made possible due to the warming induced by this dust over the Arabian Sea, which acts as a source of energy to speed up the monsoon circulation (winds, moisture) towards the Indian region. This relationship is now stronger during drought years associated with El-Nino.

    “India has faced droughts or large-scale deficits and changes in the spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall due to ongoing climate change. However, with global warming in place and changing wind patterns, we can expect a rise in dust storms across Middle Eastern deserts in the coming years. This dust may get transported to the Arabian Sea under favourable conditions and trigger short heavy rain spells over the Indian region,” said Dr V Vinoj, Assistant Professor, School of Earth Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar.

    The author said nature compensates for the deficit created by human activities. It is well established that anthropogenic factors reduce rainfall and continue to do so for long-timescale (decades). Still, the silver lining is that there is a short period of respite to this drying trend in the form of increased short-time (about a week or so) rainfall.

    “With the increasing potential of El-Nino like conditions in the future, this dust induced effects will become increasingly important in understanding changing characteristics of rainfall over India,” said Vinoj.

    The researchers drew attention to this critical observation and pointed to the need for tracking dust storms and their emissions to understand their effect on monsoon rainfall and even on air quality which is another growing problem for India.

    According to the study, normally, while ascertaining the air pollution levels on regional scales, we look at PM 2.5, which comprises many different elements, with dust being the most dominant one over India. However, recent studies have shown a decline in the desert dust over India due to increased pre-monsoon rains over the Northwestern parts of India, potentially due to the regional effect of climate change.

    However, human activities with associated emissions will continue to rise due to the country’s economic development. In addition, increased dust over the Middle Eastern deserts transported over the Arabian Sea increases short period rainfall over India. So, on the one hand, dust emitted over India is declining, whereas dust over the Arabian Sea is rising, which will lead to increased rainfall.

  • Country received normal rainfall during June-Sept: IMD

    This is for the third consecutive year that the country has recorded rainfall in the normal and above category.

  • Southwest monsoon unlikely to retreat from northwest India by September-end: IMD

    An anticyclonic wind has to form over the lower troposphere, and there should also be considerable reduction in moisture content.

  • India’s eastern states most vulnerable to climate change: Study 

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: All 612 districts in India are vulnerable to climate change, but 100 districts, mostly in the eastern part of the country, are most vulnerable, a study said.

    The study was carried out by the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore along with IIT Mandi and IIT Guwahati and supported by the Department of Science and Technology.

    Eight states in the country, Jharkhand, Mizoram, Odisha, Chattisgarh, Assam, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, and West Bengal, all in eastern India, are found to have higher vulnerability, Akhilesh Gupta, Senior Adviser and Head, Policy Coordination and Programme Management (PCPM) Division, and a climate change expert at the Department of Science and Technology (DST), underlined at a policy dialogue.

    “All 612 districts in India studied are vulnerable to climate change, but there are 100 districts mostly on eastern parts of the country which are most vulnerable as per a vulnerability assessment study carried out by IISc, Bangalore along with IIT Mandi and IIT Guwahati and supported by the Department of Science and Technology,” a statement by the DST said.

    Pointing out to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Gupta said the global temperature which has already increased to 1.1 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era level is likely to further increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius in next two decades.

    India too is expected to experience greater impact of global warming in the time to come and there may be an increase in frequency, severity and duration of heat waves.

    Monsoon may become more erratic, Gupta said. There may be more frequent droughts and floods. The Indian seas may witness more sea-level rise. There has already been increase in sea level in last two decades, he added.

    Tropical cyclones may also increase in number.

    With the increase of carbon dioxide content in the oceans, the sea water may become more acidic, Gupta pointed out at the programme organised by National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), Ministry of Home Affairs and DST in collaboration with Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.

    “Next two decades are going to be very crucial. IPCC’s working group report gives stark warnings for global climate impacts. The two-degree rise in global temperatures may come earlier than expected. It may have a huge impact on India, especially on agriculture, health and water security. India is confronted with a challenge of addressing such impacts,” he added.

    Maj Gen M K Bindal, Executive Director, NIDM, MHA warned that the danger mark has been reached, rapid access to information is needed to protect lives and livelihood and the use of science, technologu and innovation (STI) is key to fight climate change problems.

  • Rainfall during August and September likely to be on higher side of normal: IMD

    By PTI
    NEW DELHI: Rainfall during August and September, the second half of the four-month rainfall season, is likely to be on the higher side of normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

    In another forecast for August, IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said monsoon is also likely to be normal in the month.

    “The 2021 August to September rainfall averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (95 to 105 per cent of Long Period Average) with a tendency to be on the positive side of the normal,” Mohapatra said at an online briefing.

    The LPA of the August to September period rainfall over the country as a whole for the years 1961-2010 is 428.3 mm.

    Every year, the IMD issues forecast for the second half of the Southwest Monsoon, for August and September, the last two months of the four-month rainfall season.

    The spatial distribution suggests that below normal to normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the north, east and northeast parts of the country.

    Normal to above normal rainfall is most likely to be experienced over most parts of peninsular India and adjacent central India, the IMD said.

    The IMD has also started issuing month-wise forecast for the four-month rainfall season from this year.

    For August, it said, “Rainfall averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (94 to 106 per cent of LPA),” Mohapatra said.

    The LPA of the August rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 258.1 mm The spatial distribution suggests that below normal to normal rainfall is likely over many areas of central India and some areas over north India.

    “Normal to above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of peninsular India and northeast India” he added.

    Mohapatra added that currently the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and the atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate neutral ENSO (El Nino) conditions.

    The SSTs is one of the major factors that influence the Indian monsoon.

    The SSTs over central and east equatorial Pacific Ocean are showing cooling tendency.

    The latest forecasts suggests that ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season and increased possibility of re-emergence of the La Nina conditions in the end of the monsoon season or thereafter.

    La Nina is associated with the cooling of the Pacific Ocean waters, while El Nino is linked to its heating.

    In addition to ENSO conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean SSTs also an influence on Indian monsoon.

    Currently, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

    Forecasts indicate that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.

    A negative IOD is associated with the heating of the Indian Ocean waters, while a positive IOD is linked to its cooling.

    Positive IOD conditions are conducive for a good rainfall season.

  • Climate change fuelling monsoon mayhem in India, say experts as record rainfall takes heavy toll

    By Express News Service
    NEW DELHI: The coastal states of Maharashtra and Goa along with the Himalayan region of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand have witnessed a spate of extreme weather events this monsoon with hundreds of people losing their lives owing to deadly floods, cloud bursts and landslides.

    Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated since July 22, with record-breaking rainfall reported along parts of the western coast. According to the Relief and Rehabilitation Department in Maharashtra, about 229,074 people have been evacuated from the flood-hit areas and a total of 164 deaths have been reported till July 26. A total of 1028 villages have been affected, out of which Raigad district is worst affected, followed by Ratnagiri and Satara districts.

    Meanwhile, Himachal Pradesh reported a landslide on July 25, killing nine and leaving several injured. Uttarakhand has been reporting a series of landslides ever since the beginning of the month.

    Experts say that it’s high time we accept that the impact of climate change is now visible on our daily lives. With global warming intensifying, the Indian monsoon season has become erratic. Scientists have already warned that monsoon rains would increase further with the rise in global temperatures.

    “We’re not even halfway through the season and we have already achieved the seasonal rainfall target. Climate change is the reality of the moment. Weather sensitivities are on the rise, be it the intensity or frequency of cloud burst, landslides, heavy rainfall, cyclones or other phenomena. The monsoon has become erratic and we are witnessing a sea change in the monsoon season pattern which was once considered to be the most stable,” said G P Sharma, President, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

    According to a recent study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, climate change is making Indian monsoon seasons more chaotic and for every degree Celsius of warming, monsoon rainfalls will likely increase by about 5 per cent.

    “We are experiencing these extreme weather events not only in India but in parts of Europe and China as well. We have been seeing horrific images of devastation in China and Germany, which show that climate change is here and now. It is no longer a developing country’s problem alone, but is now hitting the industrialized nations such as Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. IPCC scientists have been warning about these issues for the past couple of years,” said Dr Anjal Prakash, Research Director and Adjunct Associate Professor, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business and lead author in the 6th Assessment report of IPCC.

  • IMD weather update: Heavy rainfall to continue over west coast; intensity likely to decrease in north India

    By PTI
    NEW DELHI: Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over west and central India over the next three-four days, while the intensity of precipitation over north India is likely to decrease, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.

    Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to continue over the west coast, the adjoining interior areas and the Gujarat region for the next four-five days.

    Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is also very likely over Konkan, Goa and the adjoining ghat areas of central Maharashtra on July 21-22.

    Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over east and central India during July 21-24.

    Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is also likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on July 21-22, and over Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and east Madhya Pradesh on July 22.

    The IMD said moderate to severe thunderstorms with lightning are very likely at isolated places over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh in the next 24 hours.

    On the other hand, the intensity of rainfall over northwest India is likely to reduce further after 24 hours, the Met office said.

    Light to moderate rainfall at scattered places over Delhi is very likely in the next 24 hours.

    “Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are very likely over the Western Himalayan region (Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) and adjoining northwest India (Punjab and Uttar Pradesh) on July 21 with further reduction thereafter,” the IMD said.

    The rainfall is likely to increase from July 25, it added.

  • Monsoon: Isolated places in Uttar Pradesh receive heavy rainfall

    By PTI
    LUCKNOW: Under the effect of an active monsoon, light to moderate rain and thundershowers occurred at most places in Uttar Pradesh, while heavy rains lashed isolated places in the state, the MeT Department here said on Wednesday.

    Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning occurred at isolated places in the state, according to a Meteorological (MeT) Department bulletin.

    Rainfall was reported from Kheri, Bareilly, Barabanki, Sitapur, Gorakhpur, Bahraich, Banda, Aligarh, and Majarajganj ,it said.

    Fatehgarh recorded the highest temperature in the state at 36.2 degrees Celsius while Meerut registered the lowest temperature at 21.5 degrees Celsius.

    The department forecast rain and thundershowers at most places for Thursday and warned that thunderstorm accompanied with lighting is very likely at isolated places in the state.

    Heavy rain is very likely at isolated places on Thursday, it said.

    Rain and thundershowers are very likely at most places in west UP and at many places in eastern part of the state on July 23 and at a few places on July 24, according to the bulletin.