The numbers tell the story: America absorbs three-quarters of Canadian exports, dwarfing China’s 4% share. Yet, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government just inked a pact easing tariffs on farm products and opening doors to Chinese EVs, aiming to double exports to Beijing by 2030.

Kovrig dismisses the optimism: ‘China wants the world dependent on its sales, not the other way around.’ He foresees pressure to lift import caps on EVs, flooding markets with cheap goods that gut local manufacturers—akin to how superstores decimate mom-and-pop operations.

Vulnerable Canadian sectors, including canola oil, pork, and seafood, hang in the balance. A Chinese trade blockade could trigger widespread job losses and policy concessions, Kovrig warns. He advocates balanced ties with strict rules, not blind embrace.

The ripple effects extend to trilateral trade pacts like USMCA, where experts fear Canada’s China flirtation could force tough renegotiations. As global tensions simmer, Ottawa must weigh short-term gains against long-term perils in this high-stakes economic dance.