This pointed observation came as the bench scrutinized claims of electoral fraud leveled against the poll process. Jan Suraaj had urged the top court to order fresh elections, citing rampant booth-level manipulations and administrative bias favoring the victorious NDA coalition.

Prashant Kishor, the maverick behind multiple high-profile campaign successes, entered Bihar’s political fray with Jan Suraaj in early 2024. Despite aggressive grassroots mobilization and promises of governance overhaul, the party drew blanks in seat wins and struggled with vote percentages below 1% in most areas.

The court’s rejection aligns with its consistent stance against turning the judiciary into an election appellate body. Justices made it clear that parties must first exhaust statutory remedies under election laws before approaching higher forums, especially with such thin public support.

Bihar’s polls, held in phases last month, saw Nitish Kumar’s JD(U)-BJP alliance triumph over the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. Turnout exceeded 57%, with no widespread reports of irregularities from observers. Kishor’s allegations, amplified through social media and public rallies, aimed to spotlight systemic flaws but fell flat in the face of judicial scrutiny.

Reactions poured in from across the spectrum. NDA leaders hailed the verdict as a victory for democracy, while opposition figures distanced themselves from Kishor’s aggressive posturing. For Jan Suraaj, the path ahead involves rebuilding credibility and expanding its voter base beyond Kishor’s personal brand.

This episode highlights the challenges for new political entrants in India’s polarized state politics. As the Supreme Court closes the chapter, Bihar’s focus shifts to legislative priorities amid ongoing debates on economic revival and social welfare schemes.

This bold move marks a significant confrontation between the upstart party and Bihar’s entrenched political machinery. Jan Suraaj seeks not just an investigation but a wholesale annulment of the elections, paving the way for fresh polls conducted under strict oversight.

Tomorrow, Justices Sanjiv Khanna and Sanjay Kumar will commence proceedings, potentially unraveling contentious aspects of the state’s voting process. The petition highlights how the scheme allegedly targeted women en masse, influencing their voting behavior in key constituencies.

Background reveals that Prashant Kishor, once the architect of multiple electoral victories, launched Jan Suraaj to champion clean politics. This Supreme Court foray underscores his commitment to exposing what he terms ‘corrupt electoral practices.’

Opposition voices have rallied behind the plea, arguing it exposes systemic flaws, while the government counters that welfare schemes are routine and unrelated to polls. As arguments unfold, the case could redefine boundaries between legitimate aid and electoral bribery.

With Bihar’s assembly freshly constituted, this legal challenge injects uncertainty, compelling all stakeholders to brace for possible upheaval. The apex court’s verdict will resonate far beyond one state, shaping future election integrity debates nationwide.

Axis My India’s exit poll forecasts between 121 and 141 seats for the NDA, with the MGB expected to secure 98 to 118 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is projected to win a maximum of two seats. In contrast, Today’s Chanakya predicts a more dominant performance for the BJP-led alliance, forecasting 160 seats for the NDA, 77 for the RJD-led MGB, and 6 for other parties.

A consensus across nine exit polls released on November 11 suggests the NDA could secure around 147 seats, while the MGB might get approximately 90 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party is expected to win one seat, and smaller parties could collectively win about five. The official results are scheduled for November 14.

Pollsters emphasize that the election remains competitive. Axis My India’s Pradeep Gupta highlighted the close nature of the contest and the potential impact of the Jan Suraaj Party, which may have drawn nearly 4% of the vote share. He noted that a significant portion of Kishor’s support might have originated from traditional NDA voters, which could influence seat distributions.

Analysts point out that new political entities are often underestimated in surveys. If Kishor’s support base significantly exceeds expectations, potentially reaching 8-10%, the electoral landscape could shift dramatically.

Reflecting on the 2020 Bihar elections, exit polls had largely favored the RJD, predicting substantial losses for the NDA. However, the final results showed the NDA securing 125 seats, just enough for a majority, while the MGB garnered 110 seats. The RJD emerged as the largest single party with 75 seats, closely followed by the BJP with 74.

This election also witnessed a historic surge in female voter turnout, with women outnumbering men at the polls for the first time. The overall voter turnout reached 66.91%. Election Commission data reveals that 71.6% of women cast their votes, a significant increase compared to the 62.8% turnout among men, marking the largest gender gap in the state’s electoral history. This increased participation by women could play a pivotal role in determining the final outcome as Bihar awaits its next government.

Specifically, the notice, originating from the Returning Officer of Kargahar Assembly Constituency in Bihar’s Rohtas district, states Kishor is registered as a voter in Sasaram. His details are listed under Part 367 at a polling booth in Konar, identified by EPIC number 1013123718.

Concurrently, reports indicate his name is also present on the voter list for the Bhabanipur Assembly Constituency in West Bengal, with the polling station situated at St. Helen School. This situation directly contravenes electoral laws.

The ECI’s notice cites Section 17 of the Representation of the People Act, 1950, which strictly prohibits an individual from being registered as a voter in more than one constituency. Failure to comply with this regulation can lead to penalties under Section 31 of the same Act, potentially involving imprisonment up to a year, a fine, or both.

Kishor has been given a three-day deadline to provide a detailed explanation to the ECI, clarifying the circumstances that led to his dual voter registration. This notice arrives during the ECI’s Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls and shortly before the crucial Bihar Assembly elections, scheduled for November 6 and 11, with results to be declared on November 14. Kishor, who is currently engaged in his Jan Suraaj Yatra across Bihar, has not yet issued a public statement regarding the ECI’s notice.

When questioned about Kishor’s criticisms of his party, including allegations against Dilip Jaiswal, Mishra dismissed the claims, suggesting they are aimed at self-promotion. He emphasized Kishor’s focus on forming a government with Tejashwi Yadav. Addressing the allegations that Kishor’s party is a ‘B team’ of the BJP, Mishra stated that the results would reveal the truth.

Regarding the ED, Mishra stated that the agency investigates those who warrant it. He asserted that the BJP neither entraps nor protects anyone, and that the ED’s actions against those found guilty should not be a concern.

Mishra highlighted his party’s achievements, including the reduction of migration from 11% to 2% during Lalu Prasad Yadav’s time. He mentioned the establishment of factories, job creation, and infrastructure development, crediting Nitish Kumar for bringing progress to Bihar.

Commenting on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s health, Mishra suggested that Tejashwi Yadav would be overwhelmed by the same workload. He also expressed well wishes for Lalu Prasad Yadav and advised him to retire from politics. Regarding Tej Pratap Yadav, Mishra mentioned having a good relationship with him.

Kishor is attempting to establish himself as a third force in Bihar politics. On one hand, he’s trying to capitalize on the Mahagathbandhan’s minority support base and target the BJP, while on the other, he is referencing the ideals of former socialist leaders.

Caste and minority votes are major factors in Bihar elections. Different political parties’ stances on minorities have been clear so far, but Kishor’s entry into the field with his Jan Suraaj Party threatens to disrupt existing equations regarding minorities. It remains to be seen how effectively he can attract minority voters to his party.

Will Prashant Kishor be able to penetrate the Muslim vote bank?

Initially, Kishor was critical of RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, but his focus has recently shifted towards the BJP. He is also engaged in a significant social engineering exercise. His stance on Muslim voters is becoming a serious concern for the RJD leadership. Kishor’s eye is on the Muslim-Yadav (MY) equation, aiming to penetrate the Mahagathbandhan’s vote bank. He has offered tickets to Muslims in proportion to their 17.7% population in the state.

He recently met with Muslim leaders at Patna’s Haj Bhawan and aims to connect with the broader community through the JJP’s ‘Bihar Badlav’ initiative. Kishor has assured members of the minority community that his party is prepared to field 40 minority candidates in the upcoming assembly elections. He claimed, “We will definitely give 40 assembly tickets in the assembly elections. We are working for the betterment of the minority community.”

In this manner, he has challenged the Mahagathbandhan leaders and asked them to announce in advance the seats where minority community members will be fielded. He also stated that if the Mahagathbandhan requests, Jan Suraaj Party will not field any minority community candidates in those seats.

The Mahagathbandhan has often accused the BJP of being a ‘B team.’

The Mahagathbandhan leadership has often accused Kishor of being the BJP’s ‘B team,’ but since he began targeting the leaders of the saffron party in Bihar, there has been unease within the BJP. In the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, a total of 19 Muslim candidates won. The RJD had the most MLAs at eight, followed by the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) with five, the Congress with four, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with one MLA each, although later, four AIMIM MLAs joined the RJD. In this election, the RJD recorded the highest vote share of over 23 percent. The JDU came second with over 20.46 percent. The BJP was third with 15.64 percent, and the Congress was fourth with only 6.09 percent.

As the JDU and BJP contested the elections in alliance, they succeeded in forming the government, but the RJD emerged as the largest party with the most votes and seats. The RJD won a total of 75 seats, the BJP 74, and the JDU 43. A significant reason for the RJD’s emergence as the largest party was the Yadav and Muslim votes.

Therefore, the Yadavs and Muslims are considered the vote banks of the RJD and JDU, while the majority of the upper castes and Brahmins tend to support the BJP.

Except for the 2010 assembly elections, Muslims have largely supported the RJD and the Congress for the past three and a half decades. In the last election, the AIMIM made its mark in the Seemanchal region by securing 11% of the votes. Muslims seem to lean towards the RJD and Congress more, and are less likely to vote for the JDU, and as seen in previous elections, they are very unlikely to vote for the BJP. Therefore, the Yadavs are already likely to vote for the JDU or RJD and Muslims for the RJD or Congress. In such a situation, it will be a major challenge for Kishor to break this trend and convince them to change.

How will Prashant Kishor deal with caste-based politics?

Bihar is a state where a candidate’s caste still matters a lot because people believe or assume that a candidate from their caste will do more for them than others. Here, Prashant Kishor is at a disadvantage because he is a Brahmin. Although he can field as many candidates as he wants to balance the caste equations, being a non-Yadav star face for the party could prove detrimental to him. According to the latest data, there are about 14 to 15 percent Yadavs in Bihar. While, according to the 2022 Bihar caste-based survey, considering the Brahmin factor, they constitute 3.65-75% of the state’s population.

Looking at the trends in the state, Prashant Kishor might win some seats because there are swing voters looking for a new face, and this time, Prashant Kishor is that new face. Will the 2025 Bihar be another Delhi, 2015, when the people of the national capital voted for change and supported the Aam Aadmi Party, which made Arvind Kejriwal the Chief Minister? Most of the voters, including upper caste, lower caste, and Muslims, supported Arvind Kejriwal, leaving the BJP with only 3 seats, while the Congress could not even open its account.

Will he become a kingmaker or will there be no impact?

Considering all the factors, Prashant Kishor may emerge as the facilitator of vote division, which could prove to be a boon or a curse for the JDU-BJP alliance or the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. Another outcome for the Jan Suraaj Party could be that if it wins some seats and poses a challenge to the existing ruling alliance or the Mahagathbandhan to retain power, it could become a ‘kingmaker.’

Senior journalist and political analyst Om Prakash Ashk says that he has already stated what his strength is. He has said that if 10-12 seats come, the MLAs can go to whichever party they want. It does not seem that they will be able to do anything. Right now it is the first brand, especially in electoral politics. If he does not do anything this time and remains for the next five years, then there may be some possibility for him. He will not be able to do anything. The basis of this is that the era of alliances has begun everywhere in the country. In Bihar, coalition governments have been formed for years, in such a situation, he talks about forming a government alone and not going with anyone. It is unlikely that he will be able to do anything in such a situation.

Political analysts say that Prashant Kishor is fighting on two fronts, one against the RJD and the other against the BJP. Prashant Kishor is in a mood to fight the BJP and is also working on a strategy to penetrate the Mahagathbandhan’s vote bank. By fighting on both fronts, he is trying to become a third force in politics. However, how successful he will be in this is in the womb of the future.