Peter Knupe, a specialist in diplomacy and global partnerships contributing to India Narrative, points to historical precedents. The 2003 Iraq war disrupted power balances, sparking Sunni resistance that magnetized jihadists globally and birthed ISIS.

Today’s fragile caliphate echoes persist across continents. Reports suggest conditions are ripening for outfits like Daesh and JNIM to rebound amid fresh turmoil.

Factors fueling radical groups include unchecked weapons flow, governance failures, societal grievances, rights violations, crackdowns, and chaos that opportunists exploit. These elements allow terrorists to channel rage into enlistment drives and assaults.

In Iran, rising strife and sectarian divides could embolden ISKP commanders to orchestrate strikes against Shia targets. Such developments threaten not just local stability but international peace.

Policymakers and security forces face a critical juncture. Proactive measures, including robust intelligence sharing and diplomatic outreach, are essential to neutralize ISKP’s potential windfall from the crisis. Failure to act could see terror networks regroup with devastating consequences.