These advanced Chinese ships, renowned for their intelligence-gathering capabilities, have positioned themselves in areas that could potentially compromise India’s planned missile test. Two of these vessels are operating in close proximity to the Andaman and Nicobar region, while a third is located near the Maldives, reportedly conducting ‘research activities’ which are widely interpreted as strategic reconnaissance by defense agencies.

The presence of these ships raises serious concerns as they are equipped with sophisticated sensors capable of mapping the seabed, tracking submarines, and capturing vital data for underwater warfare. They can also monitor airborne weapons systems, including signal and launch patterns. If the Chinese fleet remains in the vicinity during India’s missile trial, there is a significant risk of sensitive information being intercepted, potentially jeopardizing the test’s success and India’s strategic advantage.

Sources indicate that India might be compelled to postpone the missile test if the Chinese vessels do not move out of the designated operational area. The chosen test zone, extending up to 490 kilometers around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, strongly suggests the trial involves the extended-range variant of the BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile. This formidable weapon is designed for high-speed, low-altitude strikes against enemy warships, offering minimal reaction time.

The specific Chinese ships identified near India’s test range include Xi Yan 6, which entered the Indian Ocean via the Malacca Strait, and Shen He Yi Hao, stationed south of the Andaman chain. Lian Hai 201 is conducting seabed surveys near the Maldives. While China labels these as research vessels, defense experts view them as integral to Beijing’s military intelligence network, gathering data for submarine deployment and naval operations under the guise of oceanographic studies.

The geopolitical implications are substantial, with New Delhi closely monitoring the situation. The unfolding events highlight the ongoing shadow game in the Indian Ocean, where India’s strategic maneuvers are met with China’s probing intelligence operations. The final decision on proceeding with the missile test hinges on the actions of these Chinese surveillance ships in the crucial hours ahead.

A key area of discussion involved the sensitive issue of Indian fishermen operating in Sri Lankan waters, a practice like bottom trawling that deeply affects the livelihoods of Sri Lankan fishermen. The Prime Minister assured that both governments are dedicated to finding equitable solutions through empathetic dialogue and mutual respect. She stressed that the strength of their relationship lies not in the absence of differences, but in the ability to address them constructively.

Sri Lanka envisions itself as a vital maritime hub for the Indian Ocean, offering a cost-effective gateway for India’s global trade. Amarasuriya proposed that Sri Lanka could serve as a complementary partner in India’s ambitious ‘Viksit Bharat’ initiative, potentially acting as a production base for sectors like textiles, electronics, and food processing. Collaborative efforts in maritime security, combating drug trafficking and piracy, and exploring renewable energy development were also underscored as crucial for mutual benefit and regional stability. The Prime Minister reiterated Sri Lanka’s commitment to international law and a peaceful, prosperous Indian Ocean region.

Furthermore, Amarasuriya recognized India’s pivotal role in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. She spoke of deepening the economic partnership beyond the existing Free Trade Agreement, with hopes to soon recommence negotiations on an economic and technological cooperation agreement. Integrating Sri Lanka into India’s manufacturing and service sector value chains was identified as a mutually beneficial prospect.

The second submarine of the eight being built for Pakistan was delivered in March of this year. This is in addition to the four modern naval warships that China has given to Pakistan in recent years. This supply is part of its efforts to enhance Pakistan’s naval strength amid the continuous expansion of the Chinese navy in the Arabian Sea, where it is developing the Gwadar port in Balochistan, as well as making developments in the Indian Ocean.

The Sri Lankan delegation was led by Rear Admiral Y.R. Serasinghe, while the Indian delegation was headed by Paramash Shivamani, Director General of the Indian Coast Guard. The Sri Lankan delegation is participating in meetings and other professional programs in India from August 10 to 14. This collaboration is taking place under an agreement signed between the two countries in 2018.

Discussions focused on preventing marine pollution, search and rescue operations at sea, maritime law enforcement, training, and technical assistance. Particular emphasis was given to addressing challenges such as piracy, illegal fishing, and the trafficking of weapons and narcotics in the Indian Ocean.

This partnership between India and Sri Lanka has become even more strategically important amidst China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean and maritime security threats. Through the meeting, both countries conveyed their commitment to working together for security and environmental protection in the maritime domain.

Reports suggest that the Maldives government is in discussions with China to deploy fish aggregating devices (FADs) in the Indian Ocean, raising concerns about the potential strategic implications. These devices are believed to not only track fish movements but also collect chemical and physical data on the ocean. There are concerns that China may use these devices to spy in the region as well, reported India Today. 

While China is reportedly collaborating with Maldives’ Meteorology Department to secure permits for installation, the Maldivian government has yet to confirm the details of the project officially.

Adding to these concerns, the Maldives Environmental Protection Agency signed an agreement with China’s South China Sea Institute of Oceanography on February 19, reportedly for marine research.

This development comes amid China’s growing presence in Maldivian waters. In early 2024, the Chinese research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 03, one of the most advanced in China’s fleet, spent a month in Maldivian waters, drawing scrutiny from Indian authorities. While the Maldives Foreign Ministry stated that the ship was docked for resupply and crew changes, Indian analysts expressed concerns over potential military applications, particularly in seabed mapping that could support submarine operations. Speculation persists that China’s research activities in the Maldives may extend beyond environmental studies, with fears that surveillance equipment could be placed under the pretext of scientific research.

Indian experts have already been raising their concerns over increasing Chinese activity in the Indian Ocean, which poses a threat to India’s security. Maldives proximity with Lakshwadeep and China’s aggression add to India’s concerns.