News Analysis India

Tag: India GDP

  • Climate change impact could knock off 10% of India’s GDP, says report

    By Express News Service

    NEW DELHI:  Ahead of the G20 Summit in Rome, a new climate impact report found that India is among the countries that could all see more than 10 per cent knocked off their GDP due to worsening climate impacts. The others include the US, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and South Korea.

    The study, conducted by a team of over 40 scientists at CMCC, a research centre that serves as the Italian focal point for the IPCC, found that climate impacts are already hitting the G20.  Over the last 20 years, heat-related deaths have increased by at least 15 per cent in all G20 countries, while forest fires in the G20 have burnt an area one and a half times the size of Canada. 

    ALSO READ | If all 2030 climate targets are met, Earth will still heat by 2.7℃ this century. Here’s why that’s not ok

    The report finds that the G20 as a whole stands to lose about 4 per cent of GDP due to climate shocks as soon as 2050  and 8 per cent by 2100. “Heatwaves will last 25 times longer by 2036-2065 if emissions are high (4 degree C), over five times longer if global temperature rise is constrained to about 2 degree C, and one-and-a-half times longer if emissions are very low and temperature rise only reaches 1.5 degree C,” it said with respect to India.

    It says that just under 18 million Indians could be at risk of river flooding by 2050 if emissions are high, compared to 1.3 million today. Even assuming sufficient water and nutrient supplies, not including the impact of climate change on pests or diseases, or extreme events such as floods or storms, and including a strong effect of CO2 fertilization, sugarcane, rice, wheat, and maize yields in India would fall as the climate warms, the report projects.

    18 million Indians could be at risk of flooding

    Nearly 18 million Indians could be at risk of river flooding by 2050 if emissions are high, compared to 1.3 million today. Total labour is expected to decline by 13.4%  under a low emissions scenario by 2050 and by 24% under medium emissions scenario by 2080.

  • Be happy size of infra plan growing faster every year than GDP: Chidambaram on ‘Gatishakti’ announcement

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: Senior Congress leader P Chidambaram on Monday cited previous Independence Day announcements on infrastructure plan by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take a swipe at the government, saying “be happy” that the size of the plan is growing faster every year than the GDP.

    Prime Minister Modi on Sunday announced an ambitious Rs 100 lakh crore holistic infrastructure development programme ‘Gatishakti’, which is aimed at boosting employment opportunities and productivity of industries.

    READ MORE | Modi sets 25-year goal for growth, minimising government intervention

    Reacting to the announcement, Chidambaram said that on August 15, 2019, Modi announced his decision to invest Rs 100 lakh crore for modern infrastructure.

    “On August 15, 2020 PM Modi said the ‘National Infrastructure Pipeline Project will play an important role. A sum of Rs 100 lakh crore will be spent on this project’,” the former Union minister said.

    On August 15, 2021, PM Modi announced the launch, in the near future, of a Rs 100 lakh crore Gati Shakti infrastructure plan, he noted.

    ALSO READ | Chair not very neutral; BJP’s ‘two gentlemen’ will lock down Parl if they have their way: Chidambaram

    “India is thrice blessed. We now have a Rs 300 lakh crore plan that will be launched in the near future. Be happy that the size of the Infrastructure Plan is growing faster every year than the GDP,” Chidambaram said in a swipe at the government.

    Gatishakti, Modi said, will be a national master plan which will lay the foundation of the overall infrastructure in the country and give an integrated and holistic path to the economy.

  • COVID third wave may pull GDP growth down to 7 per cent: Economist Abhijit Banerjee

    By PTI

    KOLKATA: Nobel laureate economist Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee on Thursday apprehended that the impending third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic might adversely impact the GDP, and its growth rate might go down to 7 per cent, even below the IMF’s recent projection of 9.5 per cent.

    Banerjee, who heads West Bengal’s Global Advisory Board (GAB) and advises the state government on issues related to the pandemic, said that boosting the state’s economy is directly related to the revival of the country’s economy as it is under stress due to the ongoing pandemic situation.

    “The economy is going slow due to the COVID situation. Earlier the IMF had said GDP growth would be 12.5 per cent. Now it is saying it would be 9.5 per cent. I apprehend it might go down to 7 per cent. Another wave will decrease it further. If the country’s economy does not improve, the state will not be able to move forward alone,” he said.

    Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its economic growth forecast for India to 9.5 per cent for the fiscal year to March 31, 2022, as the onset of a severe second COVID-19 wave cut into recovery momentum.

    This forecast for 2021-22 is lower than the 12.5 per cent growth in GDP that IMF had projected in April before the second wave took a grip.

    For 2022-23, IMF expects economic growth of 8.5 per cent, higher than the 6.9 per cent it had projected in April.

    “The economy of Bengal is also connected with the country. If the country’s economy does not improve, Bengal alone will not be able to do anything. If the economy of the whole country is active, it will have an impact.

    “Many Bengalis work in other states. A lot of income comes from migrants. We cannot solve this problem alone. When the country’s economy opens, that will pull us.

    The state government is certainly trying to help, but the problem will be solved only when the country’s economy recovers,” Banerjee said.

    The noted economist that the Centre should be more into free-spending policies like other economies of Europe and the US rather than being more concerned about balancing the deficit and the budget.

    “The (union) government has a fiscal problem, and it may have more faith in balancing the budget than free-spending policies.

    The government is trying to use the one instrument it has as other forms of tax collection are not necessarily keeping pace, given the economy is slow.

    It is using this to balance the budget,” he said when asked to react to the Centre’s decision to increase cess on various items, including fuel, from time to time in the last year.

    But this is not the direction the government should not have taken, Banerjee said.

    “I think the government should have been more open-handed with the spending. I have said this many, many times. I think the central government is too unwilling to do what US or European economies are doing – printing money and spending.

    And I think that would have been a better policy in the present context,” the economist said.

    Banerjee, however, praised the Centre for now moving in that direction.

    “The inflation is already up due to the high fuel prices. I think there is a good case for being more open-handed. But to be fair, the central government has now moved towards that direction and have announced several relaxations. I think being less mindful of the deficit might be the right strategy,” the Nobel laureate said.