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Tag: India COVID third wave

  • Experts advise responsible travel, say mass gatherings can worsen possible third Covid wave

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: Stressing on responsible travel, researchers have warned that a rise in population density driven by tourist arrivals or mass congregations due to social, religious or political events clead to a surge in Covid infections worsening an anticipated third wave scenario in selected states.

    Illustrating a scenario where population density in India has a stronger effect on transmission than in the USA, researchers said a holiday period can amplify a possible third wave peak by up to 103 per cent and cumulative incidence in that wave by 43 per cent.

    It can also hasten the timing of the epidemic peak by four weeks, compared to a scenario of easing restrictions in the absence of holiday travel, they said.

    The opinion piece, based on mathematical models ‘Responsible travel to and within India during the COVID-19 pandemic’, by Balram Bhargava, Samiran Panda and Sandip Mandal from ICMR and Nimalan Arinaminpathy from Imperial College London, has been published in the Journal of Travel Medicine.

    In their study, the researchers illustrated some possible scenarios in a hypothetical state in India constructed to resemble Himachal Pradesh in the dynamics of its first and second waves, including the much lower seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 compared to the rest of the country.

    “A sudden increase in population density due to incoming tourists or mass congregations due to social, political or religious reasons can worsen the third wave scenario,” the researchers said in the opinion piece.

    Data from Himachal Pradesh suggests that in a typical holiday season, tourism can increase the population by 40 per cent.

    A recent study in the USA suggests that an increase in one unit of log population density increased R0 (the basic reproduction number/rate) by 0.16.

    “Taking this into consideration, the third-wave peak can increase by up to 47 per cent during the holiday season and can occur two weeks earlier compared to a scenario of easing restrictions in the absence of holiday travel,” researchers said.

    India’s second wave of COVID-19 was severe but showed varying impacts in different states.

    Smaller states with rarefied populations witnessed not only less intense spread than was apparent at the national level but also delayed attainment of the second peak, they observed.

    Giving examples of popular tourist destinations such as Manali and Darjeeling, the researchers said that observations indicate increasing opportunities for transmission in areas where population-level immunity has not yet accumulated to the same levels as elsewhere in the country.

    “Against a backdrop of increasing anticipation of a third wave of COVID-19 in India, it is important to recognize the potential risks associated with such an escalation in travel,” they said.

    Proposing ‘responsible travel’, researchers said mask use and observing social distancing norms by tourists can have important effects in mitigating the risk of disease transmission.

    Beyond their protective effect, mandating these precautions will also serve as an important and continuing reminder of the risk of COVID-19, they said, adding conditions on travel like allowing tourists only with recent Covid-negative test report can also play a key role.

    Vaccine status can also play an important role in eligibility to travel, with some caveats, researchers said.

    “Vaccine passports have limitations, arising from uncertainties about how the nature and strength of vaccine-induced immunity would change over time. Also, despite being the world’s largest producer of COVID-19 vaccines, India faces the challenge of having the world’s second-largest population to vaccinate.”

    “Nonetheless, as vaccination coverage scales, vaccine status can play an increasingly important role in eligibility to travel,” they said.

    Immunization planning may also benefit from prioritizing the local population in holiday destinations.

    Maintaining surveillance in at-risk settings, ensuring that virological testing is maintained even during apparent low infection activity will be important, the opinion piece stated.

    Information on genomic surveillance in other nations and vigil at international airports will be valuable for early identification of unrecognized variants, it said.

    Observing that no national guideline exists on restrictions about domestic travel, the researchers said it may be helpful for holiday-destination states to get guidance on how they can best mitigate travel-related risks.

    “With the possibility of a severe third wave in India still looming, it remains critical to recognize and mitigate the risks involved.”

    “A shared sense of responsibility, amongst visitors, residents and local authorities, will go a long way towards protecting the welfare of the country as a whole,” the researchers added.

  • No scientific data so far to show Delta plus variant adversely impacts vaccine efficacy: COVID Task Force chief

    By PTI
    NEW DELHI: It will be unfair to put a date for any COVID wave as the behaviour of coronavirus is unpredictable and a disciplined and effective pandemic response can help the country get away from any significant outbreak, COVID Task Force chief V K Paul said on Monday.

    Amid rising concerns over the Delta plus variant of the virus, Paul, who is also a Niti Aayog Member, asserted that there is no scientific data so far to establish that the new variant is highly transmissible or reduces vaccine efficacy.

    In an interview to PTI, Paul said that another wave of any size would be dependent upon several factors, including overall discipline in terms of COVID-appropriate behaviour, testing and containment strategies, and vaccination rates.

    “And in addition, the unpredictable behaviour of the virus can also change the pandemic dynamics. In such a scenario, their complex factor will determine the chain of transmission and outbreak.

    “Occurrence or non-occurrence of any wave, is in our own hands. To my mind, it is not fair to put any date for any wave,” he said.

    ALSO READ | Maharashtra tightens curbs amid fear of 3rd wave, flags Delta plus as ‘variant of concern’

    Daily fresh cases of COVID have come down from four lakhs during the peak of the second COVID wave to around 50,000 in the past few days and the unlock process or lifting of restrictions is underway in many parts of the country.

    “If we are determined and disciplined and marshal effective pandemic response, we should be in a position to get away from any significant outbreak,” Paul said.

    Currently, three COVID vaccines — Covaxin by Bharat Biotech, Covishield by Serum Institute of India (SII) and Russia’s Sputnik V — are being used for inoculation in India.

    When asked about the Delta plus variant, Paul said scientific knowledge about it is still in the early stage.

    “The so-called Delta plus variant exhibits an additional mutation in the Delta variant and since this is a new variant, scientific knowledge is still in the early stage.

    “Whether this additional mutation in the Delta variant is associated with increased transmissibility or excess severity of disease, or any adverse effect on vaccine efficacy is currently not established and we should wait for this information to emerge.

    “And we should wait for these aspects to be studied systematically,” he pointed out.

    A new viral variant of the coronavirus, Delta Plus, was identified on June 11, and was recently classified as a variant of concern.

    Regarding the effectiveness of Covaxin and Covishield against the Delta variant of the coronavirus, Paul said that based on the scientific evaluation by the ICMR, both vaccines are effective against the coronavirus, including the Delta variant, which is presently the predominant variant in the country.

    ICMR is the Indian Council of Medical Research.

    When asked if India is close to giving indemnity to foreign vaccine makers like Pfizer and Moderna, Paul said the issue has multiple dimensions and it is not wise to give a timeline for such issues.

    “The discussion for paving the way for internationally developed vaccines to India, is going on.

    The issue has multiple dimensions and we are trying to find an agreed way forward at the earliest.

    “We are trying to expedite the progress in every possible way,” he said.

    However, he did not delve into the indemnity issues with respect to approving the vaccines made by foreign companies.

    ALSO READ | Delta plus has more affinity for lung tissues in comparison to other COVID-19 strains: NTAGI chief

    Indemnity is one of the issues that is still to be sorted out between the authorities and the companies — Pfizer and Moderna — with respect to approving their respective vaccines for use in India.

    About the progress in Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin application for getting Emergency Use Listing (EUL) certificate from the World Health Organisation (WHO), Paul said the process is proceeding very well.

    “Additional documents were submitted by the company last week. We would like to see an expedited review of the data and hope that the decision will come very soon,” he noted.

    On whether the government was looking at reducing the gap between two Covishied doses, the Niti Aayog member pointed out that the country has taken the decision to increase the inter-dose interval for Covishield to three months after careful evaluation of the scientific data.

    “The decisions such as this are taken by the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI), whose members include our top scientists.

    It is for this group to look at the additional data, additional scientific information and to take a decision based on scientific principles,” he noted.

    Last month, the government extended the gap between two doses of Covishield from 6-8 weeks to 12-16 weeks.

    “As of now, their decision is to continue with the present dose schedule,” Paul said.

    To a query on how much did the Centre invest in expanding the production capacity of vaccine companies in India, he said financial grants to the tune of over Rs 670 crore have been assigned to various vaccine manufacturers.

    “But in addition, and very importantly, our science organisations have extended huge technical support to the vaccine manufacturers by way of providing laboratory access and offering vaccine trial sites in various locations,” Paul said.

    For instance, he said the National Institute of Virology in Pune has provided support by way of highly complex animal studies for vaccine development.

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