News Analysis India

Tag: India climate change

  • Climate change impact could knock off 10% of India’s GDP, says report

    By Express News Service

    NEW DELHI:  Ahead of the G20 Summit in Rome, a new climate impact report found that India is among the countries that could all see more than 10 per cent knocked off their GDP due to worsening climate impacts. The others include the US, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and South Korea.

    The study, conducted by a team of over 40 scientists at CMCC, a research centre that serves as the Italian focal point for the IPCC, found that climate impacts are already hitting the G20.  Over the last 20 years, heat-related deaths have increased by at least 15 per cent in all G20 countries, while forest fires in the G20 have burnt an area one and a half times the size of Canada. 

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    The report finds that the G20 as a whole stands to lose about 4 per cent of GDP due to climate shocks as soon as 2050  and 8 per cent by 2100. “Heatwaves will last 25 times longer by 2036-2065 if emissions are high (4 degree C), over five times longer if global temperature rise is constrained to about 2 degree C, and one-and-a-half times longer if emissions are very low and temperature rise only reaches 1.5 degree C,” it said with respect to India.

    It says that just under 18 million Indians could be at risk of river flooding by 2050 if emissions are high, compared to 1.3 million today. Even assuming sufficient water and nutrient supplies, not including the impact of climate change on pests or diseases, or extreme events such as floods or storms, and including a strong effect of CO2 fertilization, sugarcane, rice, wheat, and maize yields in India would fall as the climate warms, the report projects.

    18 million Indians could be at risk of flooding

    Nearly 18 million Indians could be at risk of river flooding by 2050 if emissions are high, compared to 1.3 million today. Total labour is expected to decline by 13.4%  under a low emissions scenario by 2050 and by 24% under medium emissions scenario by 2080.

  • Northwest, central and south-central India new hotspot of intense heatwave for last 50 years: Study

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: Northwestern, central and south-central India are new hotspots of intense heatwave over the past 50 years, a study has said.

    The study also highlights the need for developing effective heat action plans in the three heatwave hotspot regions with a focus on different vulnerabilities among the inhabitants.

    Heatwaves have emerged as a deadly health hazard, claiming thousands of lives across the globe in recent decades, with episodes strengthening in frequency, intensity and duration in the past half-century in India as well.

    This has caused severe impact on health, agriculture, economy and infrastructure.

    In such a scenario, it is extremely important to identify the most heatwave vulnerable regions of the country to prioritise immediate policy intervention and stringent mitigation and adaptation strategies, the Department of Science and Technology said.

    A team of researchers led by R K Mall, including Saumya Singh and Nidhi Singh from the Department of Science and Technology, Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research (MCECCR) at Banaras Hindu University, studied the change in spatial and temporal trends in Heatwaves (HW) and Severe heatwaves (SHW) over the past seven decades in different meteorological subdivisions of India.

    This work has been supported under the Climate Change Programme of the Department of Science and Technology.

    The study published in the journal ‘International Journal of Climatology’ links the association of HW and SHW with mortality over India.

    The study was recently published in an international journal, ‘Atmospheric Research’.

    “The study showed a shift in the spatio-temporal trend of HW events from the eastern region of Gangetic West Bengal and Bihar to northwestern, central and further to the south-central region of India.

    “The research also observed an alarming southward expansion and a spatial surge in SHW events in the last few decades that may put a greater population at additional risk of heat stress in a region already characterised by low diurnal temperature range (DTR), or the difference between the maximum and minimum temperatures within one day and high humidity,” the statement added.

    Importantly, the HW and SHW events were found to be positively correlated with mortality in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, highlighting that human health is highly susceptible to severe heatwave disasters.

    With an ever-increasing extreme-temperature threshold, a heat resilient future is the need of the hour.

    Dense population with an intensive outdoor work culture calls for equitable heat resilient mitigation and adaptation strategies covering each section of the society depending on their vulnerability, it said.

    The study highlights the need for developing effective heat action plans in the three heatwave hotspot regions.

    To mitigate future disastrous implications of exacerbated heat extremes and frame adequate adaptation measures in the wake of possible emergence of new hotspots, reliable future projections are needed.

    This motivated the research team consisting of Saumya Singh, Jiteshwar Dadich, Sunita Verma, J V Singh, and Akhilesh Gupta, and R K Mall to evaluate the regional climate models (RCM) over the Indian subcontinent to find the best performing RCM.

    This will help study the frequency, intensity, and spatial surge of heatwaves in the future.

    The study found models LMDZ4 and GFDL-ESM2M to be the best-performing ones in simulating heatwaves over India in the present scenario, which can be reliably used for future projections as well.

    The two models have laid the grounds for preparation for a heatwave resilient future, it said.

    In a separate study by meteorologists published earlier this year, heatwaves have claimed more than 17,000 lives in 50 years from 1971-2019.

    The paper, authored by M Rajeevan, former secretary of Ministry of Earth Science along with scientists Kamaljit Ray, S S Ray, R K Giri and A P Dimri, said there were 706 heatwave incidents from 1971-2019.

    Kamaljit Ray is the lead author of the paper.

  • India’s eastern states most vulnerable to climate change: Study 

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: All 612 districts in India are vulnerable to climate change, but 100 districts, mostly in the eastern part of the country, are most vulnerable, a study said.

    The study was carried out by the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore along with IIT Mandi and IIT Guwahati and supported by the Department of Science and Technology.

    Eight states in the country, Jharkhand, Mizoram, Odisha, Chattisgarh, Assam, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, and West Bengal, all in eastern India, are found to have higher vulnerability, Akhilesh Gupta, Senior Adviser and Head, Policy Coordination and Programme Management (PCPM) Division, and a climate change expert at the Department of Science and Technology (DST), underlined at a policy dialogue.

    “All 612 districts in India studied are vulnerable to climate change, but there are 100 districts mostly on eastern parts of the country which are most vulnerable as per a vulnerability assessment study carried out by IISc, Bangalore along with IIT Mandi and IIT Guwahati and supported by the Department of Science and Technology,” a statement by the DST said.

    Pointing out to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Gupta said the global temperature which has already increased to 1.1 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era level is likely to further increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius in next two decades.

    India too is expected to experience greater impact of global warming in the time to come and there may be an increase in frequency, severity and duration of heat waves.

    Monsoon may become more erratic, Gupta said. There may be more frequent droughts and floods. The Indian seas may witness more sea-level rise. There has already been increase in sea level in last two decades, he added.

    Tropical cyclones may also increase in number.

    With the increase of carbon dioxide content in the oceans, the sea water may become more acidic, Gupta pointed out at the programme organised by National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), Ministry of Home Affairs and DST in collaboration with Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.

    “Next two decades are going to be very crucial. IPCC’s working group report gives stark warnings for global climate impacts. The two-degree rise in global temperatures may come earlier than expected. It may have a huge impact on India, especially on agriculture, health and water security. India is confronted with a challenge of addressing such impacts,” he added.

    Maj Gen M K Bindal, Executive Director, NIDM, MHA warned that the danger mark has been reached, rapid access to information is needed to protect lives and livelihood and the use of science, technologu and innovation (STI) is key to fight climate change problems.