In an interview with IANS on Sunday, Fujii dissected the policy’s strengths. ‘It is very well designed and serves as an effective policy,’ he affirmed, underscoring its role in fostering self-reliant growth.

The executive stressed balancing internal demand with global outreach. Domestic market expansion, he argued, is as vital as export ambitions for sustainable prosperity. This approach, Fujii believes, is key to India’s ongoing success story.

India’s economic surge over the last ten years stands out, especially against China’s decelerating pace. Maintaining 6-7% growth, India’s dynamism owes much to Modi’s strategic leadership, according to Fujii. ‘The current growth and dynamism in the Indian economy is largely due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies,’ he noted.

Looking ahead, Fujii is optimistic. ‘India’s economy will continue to grow like this in the coming times,’ he predicted.

Backing these views, the NXT Foundation’s latest India Progress Report reveals India vaulting past Japan with a $4.8 trillion GDP, achieving 8.2% growth – the world’s highest among major economies. This trajectory points to India soon becoming the third-largest economy globally.

Fujii’s praise highlights deepening Indo-Japanese ties, with ‘Make in India’ acting as a magnet for foreign investment. As Modi’s vision takes shape, India’s rise is redefining global economic maps.

Oil price surges are driving up costs for factories and suppliers, but weak consumer demand at home prevents price hikes. Businesses are eating the costs, which will further dent already struggling profits in China’s vital manufacturing hub.

Overcapacity plagues the sector, with about 25% of companies in the red due to cutthroat competition. Escalating energy bills mean less money for wages and expansion, signaling tough times ahead for employment.

Household incomes are barely budging. More than 50% of employees received no raises last year; others took pay cuts. Young people are hit hardest, battling record unemployment despite relentless job hunts.

This spending drought keeps demand anemic, starving companies of revenue. Exports, a cornerstone of growth, are vulnerable too—as global buyers cut back amid higher fuel costs.

Prolonged high oil prices could drag down GDP forecasts, experts say. China’s push into EVs and green energy provides some edge, but supply disruptions from the Middle East threaten to offset gains.

In essence, the report cautions of a looming stagnation: stuck between deflation’s grip and inflation’s squeeze, with slow growth and relentless cost pressures defining the new normal.

Fortunately, India’s financial markets have RBI’s strong backing. The central bank’s timely actions in managing G-Sec yields and rupee volatility have prevented deeper disruptions so far.

Should the conflict persist, however, India’s key economic metrics could come under strain. RBI’s interventions in the spot market have capped rupee depreciation below 92 to the dollar, proving essential in this volatile environment.

The Strait of Hormuz blockade fears are driving oil prices skyward—Brent at $91.84/barrel and WTI at $89.62. A mere $10/barrel increase could inflate India’s FY2027 CAD by 36 basis points, per SBI. At $130/barrel, GDP growth might dip to 6%.

Viewing this through the lens of Kondratieff Waves, the report suggests the clash aligns with a long-term economic cycle’s endgame, promising lasting global impacts.

Opportunities emerge for some: America’s energy sector benefits from price surges, and Europe’s pivot from Russian supplies opens doors for US exporters. Elsewhere, economic activity faces headwinds.

Gold hoarding by central banks reflects the unease; India’s reserves feature 17.6% gold. India faces multi-pronged hits via Gulf remittances, oil imports, and regional trade, partially offset by discounted Russian crude and hedging strategies.

Local banks and companies tied to vulnerable areas are on edge. Ultimately, the report stresses ongoing vigilance as Gulf instability keeps oil markets, inflation outlooks, and investor sentiment on tenterhooks.

Base year shifted to 2022-23 in the updated series, the forecast shows real GDP surging by 7.8 percent in Q3 FY26, with annual growth at 7.6 percent. This positions India as the top performer among G20 economies in post-pandemic recovery.

Nageswaran cautioned that milestones depend on variables like exchange rates, which didn’t favor India in 2025. However, he stressed prioritizing controllable factors through proactive policies. ‘Our reforms are geared towards consistent 7 percent real and 10-11 percent nominal growth without inflationary pressures,’ he told the media.

Emerging strengths in AI and strategic trade pacts promise enhanced capital flows and rupee stability. Consequently, India’s GDP in dollar terms will more faithfully mirror its domestic vigor.

Supporting this narrative, Ministry Secretary Dr. Saurabh Garg affirmed the revised data’s robustness. ‘The numbers speak for themselves,’ he said, projecting a resilient economic framework.

This optimistic outlook arrives amid global headwinds, reinforcing India’s narrative as a growth engine for the coming decade, fueled by innovation and sound governance.

The pullback in public investment could dampen growth impulses, though robust state capex and seasonal festive consumption are expected to cushion the blow. After a stellar 16.7% expansion in Q2, the combined central-state capex settled at 4.2 lakh crore rupees—marginally below last year’s 4.4 lakh crore.

States stole the show, with 24 entities posting 21.9% growth in capex and net lending. Their total outlay surged to 2.1 lakh crore from 1.8 lakh crore, rivaling central spends and marking a sharp recovery.

ICRA forecasts quarterly GDP growth at 7.2%, a notch down from 8.2%, still fortified by holiday demand and structural reforms like GST. Aditi Nair, ICRA’s lead economist, pointed to base effects, capex moderation, state revenue sluggishness, and export weakness as growth moderators.

Revenue expenditure trends improved: Central non-interest spends dropped just 3.5% versus 11.2% earlier, while states grew 2.7%. Nationally, this category rose 0.3%, flipping Q2’s dip.

As fiscal year progresses, this data highlights the balancing act between prudence and propulsion. States’ vigor offers optimism, but economists urge vigilant monitoring of central impulses to sustain India’s high-growth trajectory amid evolving global dynamics.

‘This is more than numbers; it’s a roadmap guided by PM Modi’s foresight,’ Sindhia stated. The budget prioritizes economic resilience, world-class infrastructure, and cutting-edge tech innovations, setting India on course for third-largest economy status by 2027.

Reflecting on progress, he pointed to GDP growth from $2 trillion to $4.3 trillion in ten years. Ultra-low inflation of 1.7% from April to December 2025 demonstrates prudent fiscal management. Fiscal deficit control at 4.4%, targeting 4.3% soon, reflects disciplined governance.

A standout feature is the infrastructure leap—from Rs 2 lakh crore to Rs 12 lakh crore annually. Northeast gets a 50% budget hike to Rs 6,800 crore, with telecom boosted by Rs 72,000 crore. Major announcements cover textiles, farming, services, education, plus emerging fields like AI, tourism, and digital content.

Presented by FM Nirmala Sitharaman, the Rs 53.5 lakh crore outlay includes manufacturing incentives, data center tax breaks, and sector-specific boosts. As global risks loom, this budget emerges as a long-term strategy for inclusive growth, with Sindhia optimistic about its grassroots impact.

Patra addressed the Supreme Court’s intervention in UGC rules, stating the matter awaits judicial resolution. ‘No further comments needed now; the final order will provide clarity,’ he told reporters.

The Economic Survey 2026 offers optimistic GDP projections nationally, Patra acknowledged. However, he zeroed in on agriculture as the linchpin. ‘Positive indicators exist, but agriculture and farming will drive the real momentum.’

Current farmer distress is palpable: markets fail to operate smoothly, procurement lags, and fertilizer access remains crippled. ‘Economic targets are unattainable without tackling these head-on,’ Patra declared firmly.

On the voter list SIR process, Patra aligned with Supreme Court observations on procedural lapses. ‘Essential fixes are required, particularly in grassroots implementation at tehsil and block levels.’

Odisha’s impending SIR rollout in 2-3 months raises concerns. ‘We can’t afford accidental removal of legitimate voters during this exercise,’ Patra stressed, advocating vigilance.

Shifting gears to positivity, Patra hailed the Delhi AI Summit from February 16-20. Global entrepreneurs, innovators, and leaders will converge, offering India a platform to flaunt its AI models, ML solutions, and cutting-edge technologies.

‘India boasts exceptional talent ready to prove our AI leadership worldwide,’ he said, framing the summit as a landmark for national pride and innovation.

India’s economic journey has been one of accelerating triumphs. From 60 years to build a $1 trillion economy after independence, the nation surged to $2 trillion in merely seven years by 2014. Milestones followed rapidly: $3 trillion in 2021 and $4 trillion projected for 2025.

‘Steady progress toward $5 trillion in the coming two years,’ stated Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at SBI. Per capita milestones include crossing $1,000 in 2009, $2,000 in 2019, and $3,000 expected by 2026.

India’s growth over the last decade has been superior to many counterparts worldwide, enhancing its global economic profile. For the ambitious 2047 ‘Developed India’ vision, per capita GNI needs a 7.5% CAGR. With a historical 8.3% over 23 years, it’s achievable—though a potential threshold hike to $18,000 would demand 8.9% growth.

Adjusting for demographics and inflation, nominal GDP growth at 11.5% annually is crucial. The report advocates continuous reforms to maintain high growth rates seen pre-COVID, such as 11.5%, ensuring upper middle-income status with its ~$4,500 per capita benchmark.