News Analysis India

Tag: GDP

  • India’s economy: Path to prosperity rests on efficacy of the sum of pieces thesis

    India, a flurry of global and Indian studies informs us, is in the Goldilocks moment. In 2023, India is the fastest-growing large economy ranked fifth globally. As this column has observed, India is also driving the domino effect of cost competitiveness. Demography and demand are expected to propel growth, and its middle class is estimated to touch 61 per cent of the population with an average income of Rs 20 lakh. By 2031, India is forecast to be the third largest economy, its GDP rising from $3.5 trillion to cross the $10 trillion mark.

    The path to prosperity rests on the efficacy of the sum of pieces thesis. Momentum, the laws of physics stipulate, is mass into velocity. Effectively India’s GDP is the sum total of the growth of all the states. Growth is and has been uneven, temporally and spatially. Ergo, it will be instructive to assess the potential upside for improvement and which states are dragging the national average lower.

    One measure of improved economic condition is per capita income. In rupee terms, India’s per capita income as of April 2023 is Rs 196,983 – up from Rs 90,688 in 2013. Averages are just as close to the bottom as to the top. And as Nobel laureate Angus Deaton observed in his seminal work The Great Escape, “Averages are no consolation to those who have been left behind.” History, geography and politics influence outcomes. So how are states across India’s political geography doing?

    There are two ways to illuminate the picture. One is the distance between the national average and the state average, and another is the gap between states. In  July 2023, of the 33 States and UTs, only 16 have shared data for 2022-23; data for the others might trickle in! Telangana at Rs 308,732, Karnataka at Rs 301,673 and Haryana at Rs 296,685 top the rankings.

    Consider the wide chasm between the toppers and the laggards. The per capita GSDP of Bihar is Rs 54,383; that of Uttar Pradesh is Rs 79,396, and that of Jharkhand is Rs 86,060. The per capita income of Bihar is less than roughly a sixth of Telangana and one-fourth of the national average. Per capita incomes in Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand hover at 26 per cent of Telangana and 40 per cent of the national average.

    What about the pace of transition, and is there a correlation between the nature of politics and outcomes? Bihar has had a flip-flop series of regimes. As per the RBI and the state economic survey, between 2013 and 2023, Bihar’s per capita income rose from Rs 26,948 to Rs 54383. Uttar Pradesh, with a double-engine sarkar since 2017, rose from Rs 40,124 to Rs 79,396 and Jharkhand, which has had BJP and JMM-led regimes, from Rs 50,006 to Rs 80,060.

    How would these states with large populations rank globally in dollar terms? For reference, India’s per capita income at $2600 in 2023, as per the IMF, places it at 141st out of 191 countries. Arguably the size of the population drags down the average. Equally, the scale of the population – even with a low median age as is the case with the northern states — has the potential to deliver a demographic dividend.

    Bihar’s population of 126 million is roughly that of Mexico, which has a per capita income of $ 12,673. Bihar’s per capita income is roughly $680 (at USD @INR 80), ranking it 180 next to the Democratic Republic of Congo. Uttar Pradesh’s population of 220 million is comparable to Brazil, with a per capita income of $9,673. UP’s per capita income is under $1000, ranking it 170 next to Uganda.

    The comparisons illuminate the gap between possibilities and reality, even if only partially. Performance rests on policy. India must shift a major chunk of its population from low-productivity segments such as agriculture to high-income domains. On August 1, the government informed Parliament that the average monthly household income of agricultural households across India is Rs 10,218 – it is Rs 4,895 in Jharkhand, Rs 7,542 in Bihar and Rs 8,061 in UP. The deficit in per capita income is located in the nature of economic engagement – nearly half of India’s workforce is dependent on agriculture which accounts for about a sixth of the national income.

    India also has the lowest percentage of women employed in the workforce. In contrast, as per World Bank, the participation rate of women is 56 per cent in the United States, 61 per cent in China, 54 per cent in Japan and 56 per cent in Germany. India, in contrast, has barely 24 per cent of women in the workforce. The exact figure may be disputed, but no economy has achieved developed status, with less than half the women participating in the workforce.

    The list of necessary interventions is long – investment in human infrastructure, enabling agriculture with AI for forward and backward linkages, climate resilience in energy management, liberation of productivity factors, propelling urbanisation and more. To paraphrase Keynes, the pace at which we can reach our destination of economic bliss will be determined by the ability to manage the economic consequences of short-term politics on long-term prosperity.

    India, a flurry of global and Indian studies informs us, is in the Goldilocks moment. In 2023, India is the fastest-growing large economy ranked fifth globally. As this column has observed, India is also driving the domino effect of cost competitiveness. Demography and demand are expected to propel growth, and its middle class is estimated to touch 61 per cent of the population with an average income of Rs 20 lakh. By 2031, India is forecast to be the third largest economy, its GDP rising from $3.5 trillion to cross the $10 trillion mark.

    The path to prosperity rests on the efficacy of the sum of pieces thesis. Momentum, the laws of physics stipulate, is mass into velocity. Effectively India’s GDP is the sum total of the growth of all the states. Growth is and has been uneven, temporally and spatially. Ergo, it will be instructive to assess the potential upside for improvement and which states are dragging the national average lower.

    One measure of improved economic condition is per capita income. In rupee terms, India’s per capita income as of April 2023 is Rs 196,983 – up from Rs 90,688 in 2013. Averages are just as close to the bottom as to the top. And as Nobel laureate Angus Deaton observed in his seminal work The Great Escape, “Averages are no consolation to those who have been left behind.” History, geography and politics influence outcomes. So how are states across India’s political geography doing?googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display(‘div-gpt-ad-8052921-2’); });

    There are two ways to illuminate the picture. One is the distance between the national average and the state average, and another is the gap between states. In  July 2023, of the 33 States and UTs, only 16 have shared data for 2022-23; data for the others might trickle in! Telangana at Rs 308,732, Karnataka at Rs 301,673 and Haryana at Rs 296,685 top the rankings.

    Consider the wide chasm between the toppers and the laggards. The per capita GSDP of Bihar is Rs 54,383; that of Uttar Pradesh is Rs 79,396, and that of Jharkhand is Rs 86,060. The per capita income of Bihar is less than roughly a sixth of Telangana and one-fourth of the national average. Per capita incomes in Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand hover at 26 per cent of Telangana and 40 per cent of the national average.

    What about the pace of transition, and is there a correlation between the nature of politics and outcomes? Bihar has had a flip-flop series of regimes. As per the RBI and the state economic survey, between 2013 and 2023, Bihar’s per capita income rose from Rs 26,948 to Rs 54383. Uttar Pradesh, with a double-engine sarkar since 2017, rose from Rs 40,124 to Rs 79,396 and Jharkhand, which has had BJP and JMM-led regimes, from Rs 50,006 to Rs 80,060.

    How would these states with large populations rank globally in dollar terms? For reference, India’s per capita income at $2600 in 2023, as per the IMF, places it at 141st out of 191 countries. Arguably the size of the population drags down the average. Equally, the scale of the population – even with a low median age as is the case with the northern states — has the potential to deliver a demographic dividend.

    Bihar’s population of 126 million is roughly that of Mexico, which has a per capita income of $ 12,673. Bihar’s per capita income is roughly $680 (at USD @INR 80), ranking it 180 next to the Democratic Republic of Congo. Uttar Pradesh’s population of 220 million is comparable to Brazil, with a per capita income of $9,673. UP’s per capita income is under $1000, ranking it 170 next to Uganda.

    The comparisons illuminate the gap between possibilities and reality, even if only partially. Performance rests on policy. India must shift a major chunk of its population from low-productivity segments such as agriculture to high-income domains. On August 1, the government informed Parliament that the average monthly household income of agricultural households across India is Rs 10,218 – it is Rs 4,895 in Jharkhand, Rs 7,542 in Bihar and Rs 8,061 in UP. The deficit in per capita income is located in the nature of economic engagement – nearly half of India’s workforce is dependent on agriculture which accounts for about a sixth of the national income.

    India also has the lowest percentage of women employed in the workforce. In contrast, as per World Bank, the participation rate of women is 56 per cent in the United States, 61 per cent in China, 54 per cent in Japan and 56 per cent in Germany. India, in contrast, has barely 24 per cent of women in the workforce. The exact figure may be disputed, but no economy has achieved developed status, with less than half the women participating in the workforce.

    The list of necessary interventions is long – investment in human infrastructure, enabling agriculture with AI for forward and backward linkages, climate resilience in energy management, liberation of productivity factors, propelling urbanisation and more. To paraphrase Keynes, the pace at which we can reach our destination of economic bliss will be determined by the ability to manage the economic consequences of short-term politics on long-term prosperity.

  • The political geography of India’s economy

    India, a flurry of global and Indian studies informs us, is in the Goldilocks moment. In 2023, India is the fastest-growing large economy ranked fifth globally. As this column has observed, India is also driving the domino effect of cost competitiveness. Demography and demand are expected to propel growth, and its middle class is estimated to touch 61 per cent of the population with an average income of Rs 20 lakh. By 2031, India is forecast to be the third largest economy, its GDP rising from $3.5 trillion to cross the $10 trillion mark.

    The path to prosperity rests on the efficacy of the sum of pieces thesis. Momentum, the laws of physics stipulate, is mass into velocity. Effectively India’s GDP is the sum total of the growth of all the states. Growth is and has been uneven, temporally and spatially. Ergo, it will be instructive to review the political geography of India’s economy, assess the potential upside for improvement and which states are dragging the national average lower.

    One measure of improved economic condition is per capita income. In rupee terms, India’s per capita income as of April 2023 is Rs 196,983 – up from Rs 90,688 in 2013. Averages are just as close to the bottom as to the top. And as Nobel laureate Angus Deaton observed in his seminal work The Great Escape, “Averages are no consolation to those who have been left behind.” History, geography and politics influence outcomes. So how are states across India’s political geography doing?

    There are two ways to illuminate the picture. One is the distance between the national average and the state average, and another is the gap between states. In  July 2023, of the 33 States and UTs, only 16 have shared data for 2022-23; data for the others might trickle in! Telangana at Rs 308,732, Karnataka at Rs 301,673 and Haryana at Rs 296,685 top the rankings.

    Consider the wide chasm between the toppers and the laggards. The per capita GSDP of Bihar is Rs 54,383; that of Uttar Pradesh is Rs 79,396, and that of Jharkhand is Rs 86,060. The per capita income of Bihar is 17 per cent of Telangana and one-fourth of the national average. Per capita incomes in Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand hover at around 26 and 28 per cent of Telangana and 40 per cent of the national average. Within Bihar, the picture worsens — per capita income is Rs 18,692 in Sheohar, Rs 19,527 in Araria and Rs 20,631 in Sitamarhi.

    What about the pace of transition, and is there a correlation between the nature of politics and outcomes? Bihar has had a flip-flop series of regimes. As per the RBI and the state economic survey, between 2013 and 2023, Bihar’s per capita income rose from Rs 26,948 to Rs 54383. Uttar Pradesh, with a double-engine sarkar since 2017, rose from Rs 40,124 to Rs 79,396 and Jharkhand, which has had BJP and JMM-led regimes, from Rs 50,006 to Rs 80,060.

    How would these states with large populations rank globally in dollar terms? For reference, India’s per capita income at $2600 in 2023, as per the IMF, places it at 141st out of 191 countries. Arguably the size of the population drags down the average. Equally, the scale of the population – even with a low median age as is the case with the northern states — has the potential to deliver a demographic dividend.

    Bihar’s population of 126 million is roughly that of Mexico, which has a per capita income of $ 12,673. Bihar’s per capita income is roughly $680 (at USD @INR 80), ranking it 180 next to the Democratic Republic of Congo. Uttar Pradesh’s population of 220 million is comparable to Brazil, with a per capita income of $9,673. UP’s per capita income is under $1000, ranking it 170 next to Uganda.

    The comparisons illuminate the gap between possibilities and reality, even if only partially. Performance rests on policy. India must shift a major chunk of its population from low-productivity segments such as agriculture to high-income domains. On August 1, the government informed Parliament that the average monthly household income of agricultural households across India is Rs 10,218 – it is Rs 4,895 in Jharkhand, Rs 7,542 in Bihar and Rs 8,061 in UP. The deficit in per capita income is located in the nature of economic engagement – nearly half of India’s workforce is dependent on agriculture which accounts for about a sixth of the national income.

    India also has the lowest percentage of women employed in the workforce. In contrast, as per World Bank, the participation rate of women is 56 per cent in the United States, 61 per cent in China, 54 per cent in Japan and 56 per cent in Germany. India, in contrast, has barely 24 per cent of women in the workforce. The exact figure may be disputed, but no economy has achieved developed status, with less than half the women participating in the workforce.

    The list of necessary interventions is long. India needs to substantially ramp up investment in human infrastructure, enable agriculture with AI for forward and backward linkages, induct climate resilience in energy management, liberate land and labour which are the principal factors of productivity, introduce planned urbanisation which is a force multiplier and more. To paraphrase Keynes “the pace at which we can reach our destination of economic bliss” will be determined by the ability to manage the economic consequences of short-term politics on long-term prosperity.

    Shankkar Aiyar

    Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India([email protected])

    India, a flurry of global and Indian studies informs us, is in the Goldilocks moment. In 2023, India is the fastest-growing large economy ranked fifth globally. As this column has observed, India is also driving the domino effect of cost competitiveness. Demography and demand are expected to propel growth, and its middle class is estimated to touch 61 per cent of the population with an average income of Rs 20 lakh. By 2031, India is forecast to be the third largest economy, its GDP rising from $3.5 trillion to cross the $10 trillion mark.

    The path to prosperity rests on the efficacy of the sum of pieces thesis. Momentum, the laws of physics stipulate, is mass into velocity. Effectively India’s GDP is the sum total of the growth of all the states. Growth is and has been uneven, temporally and spatially. Ergo, it will be instructive to review the political geography of India’s economy, assess the potential upside for improvement and which states are dragging the national average lower.

    One measure of improved economic condition is per capita income. In rupee terms, India’s per capita income as of April 2023 is Rs 196,983 – up from Rs 90,688 in 2013. Averages are just as close to the bottom as to the top. And as Nobel laureate Angus Deaton observed in his seminal work The Great Escape, “Averages are no consolation to those who have been left behind.” History, geography and politics influence outcomes. So how are states across India’s political geography doing?googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display(‘div-gpt-ad-8052921-2’); });

    There are two ways to illuminate the picture. One is the distance between the national average and the state average, and another is the gap between states. In  July 2023, of the 33 States and UTs, only 16 have shared data for 2022-23; data for the others might trickle in! Telangana at Rs 308,732, Karnataka at Rs 301,673 and Haryana at Rs 296,685 top the rankings.

    Consider the wide chasm between the toppers and the laggards. The per capita GSDP of Bihar is Rs 54,383; that of Uttar Pradesh is Rs 79,396, and that of Jharkhand is Rs 86,060. The per capita income of Bihar is 17 per cent of Telangana and one-fourth of the national average. Per capita incomes in Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand hover at around 26 and 28 per cent of Telangana and 40 per cent of the national average. Within Bihar, the picture worsens — per capita income is Rs 18,692 in Sheohar, Rs 19,527 in Araria and Rs 20,631 in Sitamarhi.

    What about the pace of transition, and is there a correlation between the nature of politics and outcomes? Bihar has had a flip-flop series of regimes. As per the RBI and the state economic survey, between 2013 and 2023, Bihar’s per capita income rose from Rs 26,948 to Rs 54383. Uttar Pradesh, with a double-engine sarkar since 2017, rose from Rs 40,124 to Rs 79,396 and Jharkhand, which has had BJP and JMM-led regimes, from Rs 50,006 to Rs 80,060.

    How would these states with large populations rank globally in dollar terms? For reference, India’s per capita income at $2600 in 2023, as per the IMF, places it at 141st out of 191 countries. Arguably the size of the population drags down the average. Equally, the scale of the population – even with a low median age as is the case with the northern states — has the potential to deliver a demographic dividend.

    Bihar’s population of 126 million is roughly that of Mexico, which has a per capita income of $ 12,673. Bihar’s per capita income is roughly $680 (at USD @INR 80), ranking it 180 next to the Democratic Republic of Congo. Uttar Pradesh’s population of 220 million is comparable to Brazil, with a per capita income of $9,673. UP’s per capita income is under $1000, ranking it 170 next to Uganda.

    The comparisons illuminate the gap between possibilities and reality, even if only partially. Performance rests on policy. India must shift a major chunk of its population from low-productivity segments such as agriculture to high-income domains. On August 1, the government informed Parliament that the average monthly household income of agricultural households across India is Rs 10,218 – it is Rs 4,895 in Jharkhand, Rs 7,542 in Bihar and Rs 8,061 in UP. The deficit in per capita income is located in the nature of economic engagement – nearly half of India’s workforce is dependent on agriculture which accounts for about a sixth of the national income.

    India also has the lowest percentage of women employed in the workforce. In contrast, as per World Bank, the participation rate of women is 56 per cent in the United States, 61 per cent in China, 54 per cent in Japan and 56 per cent in Germany. India, in contrast, has barely 24 per cent of women in the workforce. The exact figure may be disputed, but no economy has achieved developed status, with less than half the women participating in the workforce.

    The list of necessary interventions is long. India needs to substantially ramp up investment in human infrastructure, enable agriculture with AI for forward and backward linkages, induct climate resilience in energy management, liberate land and labour which are the principal factors of productivity, introduce planned urbanisation which is a force multiplier and more. To paraphrase Keynes “the pace at which we can reach our destination of economic bliss” will be determined by the ability to manage the economic consequences of short-term politics on long-term prosperity.

    Shankkar Aiyar

    Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India
    ([email protected])

  • Global slowdown coming, warn Goldman Sachs, Crisil

    By Express News Service

    NEW DELHI: While India has so far managed to steer clear of the heat of the global slowdown, rating agencies feel the coming year will be different, as they continue to cut the country’s GDP growth projection for 2023. 

    In the latest round of revisions, Goldman Sachs, Crisil and Icra have slashed India’s growth prospects. While Goldman Sachs has cut India’s growth projection to 5.9% in the calendar year 2023 from 6.9% growth this year, Crisil revised down India’s FY23 growth forecast to 7% from 7.3% projected earlier. For its part, Icra halved the FY23 second-quarter growth estimate to 6.5% citing higher input costs and low external demand. 

    “We expect growth to be a tale of two halves in 2023, with a slowdown in the first half,” Santanu Sengupta, India economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note on Sunday. “In the second half, we expect growth to re-accelerate as global growth recovers, the net export drag declines, and the investment cycle picks up,” Sengupta added.

    Crisil, which sees GDP growth further slowing down to 6% in fiscal 2024, cited the slowdown in global growth that has started impacting India’s exports and industrial activity. “This will test the resilience of domestic demand,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil.

    India’s merchandise exports dropped 17% in October 2022 to $29.73 billion from $35.78 billion in the same month a year ago, while merchandise trade deficit rose to $27 billion. According to Aditi Nayar, chief economist at Icra, Q2FY23 economic growth will moderate on account of mixed crop output and the ripple effect of global slowdown. 

    NEW DELHI: While India has so far managed to steer clear of the heat of the global slowdown, rating agencies feel the coming year will be different, as they continue to cut the country’s GDP growth projection for 2023. 

    In the latest round of revisions, Goldman Sachs, Crisil and Icra have slashed India’s growth prospects. While Goldman Sachs has cut India’s growth projection to 5.9% in the calendar year 2023 from 6.9% growth this year, Crisil revised down India’s FY23 growth forecast to 7% from 7.3% projected earlier. For its part, Icra halved the FY23 second-quarter growth estimate to 6.5% citing higher input costs and low external demand. 

    “We expect growth to be a tale of two halves in 2023, with a slowdown in the first half,” Santanu Sengupta, India economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note on Sunday. “In the second half, we expect growth to re-accelerate as global growth recovers, the net export drag declines, and the investment cycle picks up,” Sengupta added.

    Crisil, which sees GDP growth further slowing down to 6% in fiscal 2024, cited the slowdown in global growth that has started impacting India’s exports and industrial activity. “This will test the resilience of domestic demand,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil.

    India’s merchandise exports dropped 17% in October 2022 to $29.73 billion from $35.78 billion in the same month a year ago, while merchandise trade deficit rose to $27 billion. According to Aditi Nayar, chief economist at Icra, Q2FY23 economic growth will moderate on account of mixed crop output and the ripple effect of global slowdown. 

  • RBI expects CAD to remain within 3 per cent in FY23

    By Express News Service

    Even as analysts and economists predict India’s current account deficit (CAD) to be over 3%, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expecting the CAD to be within 3% of GDP.

    This confidence of the country’s Central Bank stems from India’s export performance. In its State of the Economy report, the Central Bank says that the export target of $750 billion for goods and services for 2022-23 is appearing within reach. In addition, it says that India is cementing its position as the top remittances receiver in the world, with inflows touching US$ 90 billion last year and set to create a new record (this year).

    A country has a current account deficit when its imports of goods, services and net income from overseas investments exceed its exports.

    The RBI also appeared confident of financing this deficit. “With portfolio flows returning and foreign direct investment remaining strong, this order of deficit is eminently financeable,” it said in its State of the Economy report.

    And even as the RBI is optimistic about lower than 3% CAD, analysts have a different view. Recently, rating agency ICRA projected CAD at 3.5% of GDP in FY23.

    India Ratings in a report on Friday said that as GDP forecasts of some of India’s key exporting destinations such as the US, Eurozone and China have been revised downwards, this may put India’s exports targets of $750 billion (goods and services) for FY23 in jeopardy.

    Even as analysts and economists predict India’s current account deficit (CAD) to be over 3%, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expecting the CAD to be within 3% of GDP.

    This confidence of the country’s Central Bank stems from India’s export performance. In its State of the Economy report, the Central Bank says that the export target of $750 billion for goods and services for 2022-23 is appearing within reach. In addition, it says that India is cementing its position as the top remittances receiver in the world, with inflows touching US$ 90 billion last year and set to create a new record (this year).

    A country has a current account deficit when its imports of goods, services and net income from overseas investments exceed its exports.

    The RBI also appeared confident of financing this deficit. “With portfolio flows returning and foreign direct investment remaining strong, this order of deficit is eminently financeable,” it said in its State of the Economy report.

    And even as the RBI is optimistic about lower than 3% CAD, analysts have a different view. Recently, rating agency ICRA projected CAD at 3.5% of GDP in FY23.

    India Ratings in a report on Friday said that as GDP forecasts of some of India’s key exporting destinations such as the US, Eurozone and China have been revised downwards, this may put India’s exports targets of $750 billion (goods and services) for FY23 in jeopardy.

  • Massive floods likely to reduce Pak’s GDP by over 2 percentage points, says PM Shehbaz Sharif 

    By PTI

    ISLAMABAD: The massive floods in Pakistan are likely to reduce its GDP by over 2 percentage points and the government is grappling with the immediate challenge of averting imminent food insecurity in the country, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has said.

    During a telephonic conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday to express gratitude for extending humanitarian relief assistance to Pakistan, Sharif said the ongoing floods have devastated millions of acres of standing crops, houses and critical infrastructure in the country, according to an official statement.

    The prime minister said as per initial estimates, the floods are likely to reduce Pakistan’s GDP by over 2 percentage points.

    “Pakistan is grappling with the immediate challenge of averting imminent food insecurity in the country as well as providing for rescue and rehabilitation of the victims of this climate-induced calamity,” Sharif told Erdogan.

    He said the government is fighting to avoid food shortages due to the destruction of crops in the wake of the historic floods.

    The current floods triggered by monsoon rains have so far killed nearly 1,400 people and injured another 12,728, while damaging 6,674 km of road and destroying over 1.7 million houses.

    ISLAMABAD: The massive floods in Pakistan are likely to reduce its GDP by over 2 percentage points and the government is grappling with the immediate challenge of averting imminent food insecurity in the country, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has said.

    During a telephonic conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday to express gratitude for extending humanitarian relief assistance to Pakistan, Sharif said the ongoing floods have devastated millions of acres of standing crops, houses and critical infrastructure in the country, according to an official statement.

    The prime minister said as per initial estimates, the floods are likely to reduce Pakistan’s GDP by over 2 percentage points.

    “Pakistan is grappling with the immediate challenge of averting imminent food insecurity in the country as well as providing for rescue and rehabilitation of the victims of this climate-induced calamity,” Sharif told Erdogan.

    He said the government is fighting to avoid food shortages due to the destruction of crops in the wake of the historic floods.

    The current floods triggered by monsoon rains have so far killed nearly 1,400 people and injured another 12,728, while damaging 6,674 km of road and destroying over 1.7 million houses.

  • ‘Will work for it’: Finance Minister Sitharaman bullish on double-digit GDP growth

    By PTI

    HYDERABAD: Hoping for double-digit growth in GDP in this financial year, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the nation is on a strong wicket when compared to others, and is responsive in terms of extending hand-holding to the required sections.

    Speaking to media persons here, she quoted reports saying the country has zero per cent chance of slipping into recession.

    “I hope for (double-digit growth). We will work for it. So if you’re not on the verge of recession, it also gives me the confidence that if you are constantly responsive in terms of the sections which need hand-holding, in terms of the boost that we have to give to the economy,” she said when asked if she expects double-digit growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) for the year.

    Recent figures released by the Centre indicated that the nation clocked 13.5 per cent growth in GDP in the first quarter of the current financial year.

    It was 20.1 per cent a year ago.

    Sitharaman further said some may argue that the high growth rate is because of the low base.

    “Compared to economies we are talking about, we are on a sound wicket. We are literally the fastest growing economy,” she said.

    Referring to the World Bank and IMF reports, the Union minister said she was also taking into consideration the fact that economies which were far more developed than India and comparable with the country, are on the verge of recession.

    To another query on freebies, she said everybody should participate in the debate on the issue.

    “We should become a party to the discussion. Because if you are giving something free means somebody is paying for it,” Sitharaman said.

    She suggested that any government after coming to power must assess its financial situation in terms of tax revenues and others, and make provisions before offering freebies.

    HYDERABAD: Hoping for double-digit growth in GDP in this financial year, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the nation is on a strong wicket when compared to others, and is responsive in terms of extending hand-holding to the required sections.

    Speaking to media persons here, she quoted reports saying the country has zero per cent chance of slipping into recession.

    “I hope for (double-digit growth). We will work for it. So if you’re not on the verge of recession, it also gives me the confidence that if you are constantly responsive in terms of the sections which need hand-holding, in terms of the boost that we have to give to the economy,” she said when asked if she expects double-digit growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) for the year.

    Recent figures released by the Centre indicated that the nation clocked 13.5 per cent growth in GDP in the first quarter of the current financial year.

    It was 20.1 per cent a year ago.

    Sitharaman further said some may argue that the high growth rate is because of the low base.

    “Compared to economies we are talking about, we are on a sound wicket. We are literally the fastest growing economy,” she said.

    Referring to the World Bank and IMF reports, the Union minister said she was also taking into consideration the fact that economies which were far more developed than India and comparable with the country, are on the verge of recession.

    To another query on freebies, she said everybody should participate in the debate on the issue.

    “We should become a party to the discussion. Because if you are giving something free means somebody is paying for it,” Sitharaman said.

    She suggested that any government after coming to power must assess its financial situation in terms of tax revenues and others, and make provisions before offering freebies.

  • India’s Q3FY22 GDP expected to grow at 6.2 per cent: ICRA

    'The economic recovery gained some traction in Q3 FY2022. Rising vaccine coverage and confidence levels instigated a cautious revival in the contact-intensive sectors.'

  • Indian economy contracts by 6.6 per cent in 2020-21: NSO data

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: Indian economy contracted by 6.6 per cent in 2020-21 as against the earlier estimate of 7.3 per cent decline, showing that the COVID-19 pandemic hit economy did not perform as badly as was initially worked out.

    As per the provisional estimates released in May 2021, the GDP had contracted by 7.3 per cent during 2020-21 on account of the outbreak of COVID-19 and subsequent nationwide lockdown to contain the pandemic.

    The National Statistical Office has also revised downward the real GDP growth number for 2019-20 to 3.7 per cent as against the earlier estimate of 4 per cent.

    “Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2020-21 and 2019-20 stands at Rs 135.58 lakh crore and Rs 145.16 lakh crore, respectively, showing a contraction of 6.6 per cent during 2020-21 as compared to growth of 3.7 per cent during 2019-20,” National Statistical Office said in the revised national account data released on Monday.

    Under the first revision released in January 2021, real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2019-20 was pegged at Rs 145.69 lakh crore, showing growth of 4 per cent during 2019-20.

    “In terms of real GVA (gross value added), i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices, there has been a contraction of 4.8 per cent in 2020-21, as against growth of 3.8 per cent in 2019-20,” NSO stated.

    During 2020-21, the growth rates of the primary sector (comprising agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), secondary sector (comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, and construction) and tertiary sector (services) have been estimated as 1.6 per cent, (-)2.8 per cent and (-) 7.8 per cent as against a growth of 1.9 per cent, (-) 6.8 per cent and (-) 8.4 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.

    Nominal Net National Income (NNI) or NNI at current prices for the year 2020-21 stands at Rs 171.94 lakh crore as against Rs 177.17 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a contraction of 2.9 per cent during 2020-21 as against growth of 6 per cent in the previous year, it stated.

    Per Capita Income i.e. Per Capita Net National Income at current prices is estimated at Rs 1,32,115 and Rs 1,26,855 respectively for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21, it stated.

  • Rise in GDP for government is rising prices of gas, diesel, petrol: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Wednesday slammed the government over the rising price of domestic cooking gas, diesel and petrol, and alleged that an amount of Rs 23 lakh crore has been earned by increasing prices of these commodities in the last seven years.

    He also alleged that while sections such as farmers, salaried class and labourers were being demonetised, a few industrialist friends of Prime Minister Narendra Modi were being monetised. At a press conference, Gandhi said the government has come up with a new concept of GDP, wherein a rise in GDP means a rise in prices of Gas, Diesel and Petrol.

    The former Congress chief alleged that the government has earned Rs 23 lakh crore from increasing prices of gas, diesel and petrol in the last seven years, and said the people of the country should ask where is this money going.

    “On one hand there is demonetisation and on the other there is monetisation. Whose demonetisation is taking place — farmers, labourers, small traders and informal sector, MSMEs, contract workers, salaried class and honest industrialists. Whose monetisation is taking place — four-five friends of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” Gandhi said.

    The Congress leader alleged that a transfer of wealth is taking place from the poor and the weak to the prime minister’s friends. He said that the government was panicking over not being able to fulfil its promises and was surviving on fuel prices.

    ALSO READ| Rahul Gandhi slams Modi government over rise in prices of LPG

    Gandhi added that the day when the international crude oil prices rise to about USD 90-100, the situation will spiral out of control here. He also compared figures of cooking gas cylinders, petrol and diesel between the time when UPA was in power in early 2014 to now.

    The LPG gas price was Rs 410 per cylinder in 2014 when the UPA (Congress-led United Progressive Alliance) was in power, now it is Rs 885. Petrol was at Rs 71.5 per litre in 2014 when the UPA was in power, now it is Rs 101 and diesel has risen from Rs 57 to Rs 88, Gandhi said.

    International prices of petrol, diesel and cooking gas are down since 2014, but prices are still rising in India, he said.

    The Congress party has been attacking the government over the rise in petrol, diesel and LPG prices and has been demanding a reduction in them by removing some of the taxes imposed by the central government.

    The prices of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) cooking gas cylinders across all categories including subsidised gas on Wednesday were hiked by Rs 25 per cylinder — the third straight increase in rates in less than two months.

    Subsidised as well as non-subsidised LPG now costs Rs 884.50 per 14.2-kg cylinder in Delhi, according to a price notification of oil companies.

  • 20.1% surge in GDP growth helped by low base, economy yet to recover fully: Chidambaram

    We have still some distance to go before the economy can be said to have achieved the pre-pandemic level, Congress leader P Chidambaram tweeted.