Trump claimed that Prime Minister Modi had assured him that India would cease buying Russian oil. However, he added a caveat: if India continues its current course, it will ‘continue to pay massive tariffs.’ The former president asserted that the US has already imposed substantial tariffs, stating, ‘The 79-year-old Republican president has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on India for procuring Russian oil, taking the total duties on New Delhi to a whopping 50 per cent.’

India has previously labeled these tariffs as ‘unjust,’ a stance defended by the Trump administration. Notably, India’s Ministry of External Affairs has categorically denied Trump’s assertion about a conversation between Prime Minister Modi and the former president. A spokesperson stated they were ‘unaware of any conversation’ and reiterated that India’s energy policy prioritizes securing stable prices and supplies for its consumers.

Since the conflict in Ukraine began, Russia has become India’s leading oil supplier. Data indicates that Russian crude now constitutes 34% of India’s total oil imports. While this represents a significant share, recent reports suggest a slight decrease in imports from Russia compared to earlier periods. Despite this, Russia remains a crucial energy partner for India.

This assertion comes despite official denials from India regarding any such conversation or agreement. When questioned about India’s dismissal of his claim, Trump indicated that non-compliance would lead to substantial tariffs, something he believes India wishes to avoid. He reiterated his stance, suggesting India has already begun to scale back its Russian oil procurement. The US had previously implemented a 25% tariff on Indian oil imports, with no similar action taken against China for its Russian oil purchases.

Earlier this week, Trump had indicated he had received assurances from India regarding the reduction in Russian oil imports, acknowledging that the transition would not be immediate. “He assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia…It’s a little bit of a process, but the process is going to be over with soon,” Trump remarked, suggesting that this move would facilitate the resolution of the ongoing conflict. He further suggested that India would resume purchases from Russia only after the conflict concludes.

Describing Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a ‘great man’ and India as ‘an incredible country,’ Trump’s comments come at a time of crucial trade negotiations between the US and India. However, India’s Ministry of External Affairs has officially denied any recent telephonic conversation between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump concerning this matter. Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal clarified that a previous statement on the energy issue should be referred to, and explicitly stated, “As for the telephonic conversation, I can say that there has been no discussion between the Prime Minister and President Trump”.

While India has increased its imports of Russian oil in recent years, China remains Russia’s largest energy customer. Notably, during the Trump administration, tariffs were imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil, while China faced no such measures. The current trade talks in Washington coincide with the new US ambassador to India’s recent meetings with top Indian officials, highlighting the ongoing strategic dialogue.

Al Ghais projects that oil will still constitute approximately 30 percent of the global energy mix by mid-century, with overall primary energy demand expected to surge by 23 percent. He cautioned that predictions of rapidly declining oil demand are overly optimistic and that insufficient investment poses a tangible supply risk. Mature oil fields require consistent funding to maintain output, and low investment levels could severely impact global supply, even as renewable energy sources gain traction. This perspective underscores the delicate balance between transitioning to cleaner energy and ensuring energy security.

The substantial investment requirement faces considerable hurdles, including policy uncertainties, evolving climate regulations, and dynamic energy markets. Not all potential projects will prove economically or environmentally feasible, requiring careful navigation of carbon pricing, regulatory shifts, and increasing public scrutiny. Expanding production in challenging environments like deepwater sites or remote Arctic regions presents unique geological, logistical, and permitting complexities.

OPEC notes that oil companies, from the Middle East to U.S. shale plays and offshore Africa, are attempting to balance continued fossil fuel production with investments in low-carbon technologies. However, the pace and direction of policy changes and carbon frameworks will significantly influence the viability and extent of hydrocarbon investments moving forward, underscoring the need for a stable and predictable regulatory environment to attract the necessary capital.

Previous attempts to mix ethanol with diesel were unsuccessful. Therefore, the government is now experimenting with isobutanol. This process is currently in the experimental phase, as confirmed by Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways, Nitin Gadkari, in a recent statement.