News Analysis India

Tag: Coronavirus

  • ‘COVID cases rising in Delhi’: Maharashtra Dy CM Ajit Pawar bats for voluntary use of masks

    By PTI

    PUNE: Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar on Friday cited rising COVID-19 cases in Delhi and said people can continue wearing masks like him voluntarily though the state government had now made it optional.

    During the day, Delhi logged 1,042 COVID-19 cases at a positivity rate of 4.64 per cent, while two people died of the infection, taking the tally there to 18,72,699 and toll to 26,164. This was a rise from the 965 cases and one death recorded a day earlier there.

    “The danger of COVID-19 is not over completely. The situation in Delhi is changing. And once the virus spreads in one state, it won’t take much time for it to spread in other states. We have removed all restrictions on masks but those who want to wear it like me can do so. However, this is voluntary and optional,” Pawar told reporters here.

    Maharashtra on Friday reported 121 cases, including 68 in Mumbai.

  • Delhi, Bihar government to reimburse Centre for using COVID jabs as free precaution dose

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: Delhi and Bihar, which have started administering free Covid precaution doses for the 18-59 year age group, have to reimburse the National Health Authority for using the available stock of jabs provided by the Union government for the purpose, official sources said Friday.

    Following requests from these two states, the Union Health Ministry has made a provision on the CoWIN portal for creating sessions to administer the precaution doses at government COVID vaccination centres, they said.

    They had sought permission from the ministry to use the available stock of COVID vaccine as precaution dose in government vaccination centres free of cost, saying they would reimburse or replenish the stock upon procurement.

    “The Union Health Ministry has agreed to their proposal…But they shall reimburse the cost of the vaccine used for the purpose to the National Health Authority,” an official source said. The Union government had announced that the precaution dose of anti-COVID19 vaccines will be available to everyone aged above 18 years at the private vaccination centres beginning April 10.

    The Delhi government had written to the Union Health Ministry, saying that the uptake of precaution doses at private COVID vaccination centres (CVCs) was not very promising.

    Delhi government’s Principal Secretary, Health, Manisha Saxena had said that to promote the uptake of precaution dose among the 18-59 years age group, the Government of NCT Delhi intends to administer precaution dose for this group in all government CVCs free of cost.

    “In order to give the benefit of precaution dose to all eligible beneficiaries in Delhi, the same will be available for 18 to 59 years age group, free of cost in all government CVCs from April 21,” the Delhi health department said in an order.

    Both online appointments and walk-in facility will be available, it added.

    Bihar’s Additional Chief Secretary (Health) Pratyaya Amrit, had told the Centre, “As the procurement of vaccines may take a few days, we request you to kindly allow the administration of the current stock of vaccines as precaution dose to 18 to 59 years age group which would be later replenished upon procurement by the state.”

    Vaccine majors Serum Institute of India (SII) and Bharat Biotech have decided to cut prices of the precaution dose of their respective COVID-19 vaccines to Rs 225 per shot for private hospitals after discussion with the government.

    The Centre had told the states that the precaution dose will be of the same COVID-19 vaccine like the one used for the administration of the first two doses and that private vaccination centres can charge up to a maximum of Rs 150 per dose as a service charge over and above the cost of the vaccine.

  • Queen Elizabeth II privately marks her 96th birthday

    By Associated Press

    LONDON: Queen Elizabeth II is marking her 96th birthday privately on Thursday, retreating to the Sandringham estate in eastern England that has offered the monarch and her late husband, Prince Philip, a refuge from the affairs of state.

    Elizabeth is expected to spend the day at the estate’s Wood Farm cottage, a personal sanctuary where she also spent her first Christmas since Philip’s death in April 2021. Philip loved the cottage, in part because it is close to the sea, she said in February when hosting a rare public event at Sandringham.

    “I think the queen’s approach to birthdays very much embodies her keep calm and carry on attitude,” said Emily Nash, the royal editor at HELLO! magazine. ”She doesn’t like a fuss.”

    This birthday comes during the queen’s platinum jubilee year, marking her 70 years on the throne. While Thursday will be low-key, public celebrations will take place June 2-5, when four days of jubilee festivities have been scheduled to coincide with the monarch’s official birthday.

    The day marks yet another milestone in a tumultuous period for the monarch, who has sought to cement the future of the monarchy amid signs of her age and controversy in the family. After recovering from a bout of Covid-19 earlier this year, the queen’s public appearances have been limited by unspecified “mobility issues.” Prince Andrew’s multi-million-pound settlement with a woman who accused him of sexual exploitation also caused unwanted headlines for the royal family.

    But the queen got an early birthday treat last week, when grandson Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, paid her a joint visit for the first time since they stepped away from frontline royal duties and moved to California in 2020. Harry, in an interview with NBC, said his grandmother was “on great form,” though he added that he wanted to make sure she was “protected” and had “the right people around her.”

    Britain’s longest-serving monarch, Elizabeth has spent much of the past two years at Windsor Castle, west of London, where she took refuge during the pandemic. It’s been a little over a year since the death of Philip, her spouse of more than 70 years.

    Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II in St. George’s Chapel during the funeral of Prince Philip. (Photo | AP_

    The queen said goodbye during a scaled-down funeral in St. George’s Chapel at Windsor Castle. Coronavirus restrictions in place at the time limited the service to 30 mourners and forced the monarch to sit alone — a poignant reminder of how she would spend her remaining years.

    Last month, with the pandemic on the wane and restrictions, eased, the queen shrugged off recent health issues to attend a service of thanksgiving for Philip at Westminster Abbey, entering the abbey on the arm of Andrew, her second son. 

    Her choice of escorts was seen as a vote of support for Andrew following his legal settlement. But the in-person appearance was rare. The Queen has increasingly relied on Prince Charles to take on public engagements in the twilight of her reign, most recently offering alms to senior citizens at the Royal Maundy service at St. George’s Chapel.

    Charles took on the traditional task of distributing specially minted coins to pensioners who were being recognized for service to the church and the local community. This year, 96 men and 96 women received the coins, one for each year of the queen’s life.

    “She has a lot coming up in the next few months, so it absolutely makes sense that she enjoys her birthday quietly, privately at Sandringham,″ Nash said. “She will no doubt have quite a lot of time to reflect on her happy times there with Prince Philip over the years. But this is really someone whose focus is still on the future, even at the age of 96.”

  • Active COVID-19 cases increase to 13,433

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: With 2,380 new coronavirus infections being reported in a day, India’s total tally of COVID-19 cases rose to 4,30,49,974, while the active cases increased to 13,433, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Thursday.

    The death toll climbed to 5,22,062 with 56 fresh fatalities, the data updated at 8 am stated. The active cases comprise 0.03 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate remained at 98.76 per cent, the ministry said.

    An increase of 1,093 cases has been recorded in the active COVID-19 caseload in a span of 24 hours. India’s COVID-19 tally had crossed the 20-lakh mark on August 7, 2020, 30 lakh on August 23, 40 lakh on September 5 and 50 lakh on September 16.

    It went past 60 lakh on September 28, 70 lakh on October 11, crossed 80 lakh on October 29, 90 lakh on November 20 and surpassed the one-crore mark on December 19. The country crossed the grim milestone of two crore on May 4 and three crore on June 23 last year.

  • Active COVID-19 cases in country rise to 12,340

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: With 2,067 new coronavirus infections being reported in a day, India’s total tally of COVID-19 cases rose to 4,30,47,594 while the active cases increased to 12,340, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Wednesday.

    The death toll climbed to 5,22,006 with 40 fresh fatalities being reported from Uttar Pradesh, the data updated at 8 am stated.

    The active cases comprise 0.03 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate remained at 98.76 per cent, the ministry said.

    An increase of 480 cases has been recorded in the active COVID-19 caseload in a span of 24 hours. The daily positivity rate was recorded at 0.49 per cent and the weekly positivity rate was recorded at 0.38 per cent, according to the health ministry.

    The number of people who have recuperated from the disease surged to 4,25,13,248, while the case fatality rate was recorded at 1.21 per cent.

    The cumulative doses administered in the country so far under the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination drive has exceeded 186.90 crore.

    India’s COVID-19 tally had crossed the 20-lakh mark on August 7, 2020, 30 lakh on August 23, 40 lakh on September 5 and 50 lakh on September 16.

    It went past 60 lakh on September 28, 70 lakh on October 11, crossed 80 lakh on October 29, 90 lakh on November 20 and surpassed the one-crore mark on December 19. The country crossed the grim milestone of two crore on May 4 and three crore on June 23 last year.

  • Centre writes to five states, asks them to monitor spread of COVID infection amid surge in cases

    By Express News Service

    NEW DELHI: The central government has written to Delhi, Haryana, Mizoram, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh as COVID cases in these states show a rising trend and has asked them to test-track-treat-vaccinate and adhere to COVID appropriate behaviour with special emphasis on wearing of masks in crowded areas.

    In a letter to these states, Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan said a few states are reporting a higher contribution to India’s cases and higher positivity. He asked the states to “continue monitoring the spread of infection and undertake required steps for prompt and effective management of COVID-19”.

    Bhushan said that the states should monitor clusters of new COVID-19 cases and take containment efforts to cure the spread of infection. Apart from testing, they should also monitor influenza-like illnesses in all health facilities regularly to detect early warning signals of the spread of infection.

    “They should undertake genomic sequencing for prescribed samples of international passengers, collection of samples from sentinel sites (identified health facilities and sewage samples) and local clusters of cases,” it said.

    The ministry also asked the states to “maintain a strict watch and take pre-emptive action to control any emerging spread of infection”. The Centre had written to these five states on April 8 as well when COVID cases had started showing an upward surge.

    In the letter to Delhi’s principal secretary, Manisha Saxena, the union health secretary said it has reported an increase in weekly new cases from 998 new cases in the week ending April 12 to 2,671 new cases in the last week ending April 19. The positivity rate also increased from 1.42 per cent to 3.49 per cent in the previous week in Delhi.

    Haryana reported an increase in weekly new cases from 521 to 1,299. The state also saw a rise in positivity rate from 1.22 per cent to 2.86 per cent.

  • Scientists allay fears of new COVID wave, say cases rising but focus on hospital admissions

    By PTI

    DELHI: Though Covid cases are rising in Delhi and its satellite towns, the focus should be on hospital admissions that have remained the same or changed just marginally, say several scientists, underscoring that the uptick is not an indication of a fourth wave in the country at this point.

    The removal of COVID-19 restrictions, including schools reopening for offline classes, increased socialising and economic activity may be driving the spike in the national capital and its surrounding areas, and some other pockets, they said.

    “It has been more than two weeks since all COVID-19 restrictions have been removed. It is a holiday period and people are meeting and intermingling. This is also reflected in social mobility and economic activity, which are higher than pre-pandemic periods,” physician-epidemiologist Chandrakant Lahariya told PTI while also advising caution and stressing on continued surveillance.

    “Merely counting cases has no meaning…though cases are rising in Delhi, hospital admission remains unchanged or marginally changed,” he said.

    ALSO READ: Active COVID-19 cases in country rise to 11,860

    Given the epidemiological and scientific evidence, the current rise in cases in Delhi is not the start of the fourth wave.

    “SARS CoV-2 is going to stay with us for a long time and therefore, there is not going to be any period when the new cases would be zero,” he said.

    Delhi’s COVID-19 positivity rate on Monday jumped to 7.72 per cent with 501 fresh cases, according to health department data.

    The last time the positivity rate was above seven per cent in the city was on January 29 (7.4 per cent) and on January 28 (8.6 per cent), officials said.

    This is in sharp contrast to India’s overall positivity rate of 0.31 per cent recorded by the Union Health Ministry on Tuesday when 1,247 coronavirus infections were reported.

    ALSO READ: Not need for alarm as hospitalisations low, says Satyendar Jain on COVID situation in Delhi

    While scientists don’t have exact answers why, US-based Infectious disease expert Amita Gupta noted that the rise in cases in Delhi and some other states may be a result of looser restrictions, pandemic fatigue, and higher transmissibility of the virus.

    “We anticipate this will not result in a major increase in severe cases requiring hospitalisation as this is not what we are seeing elsewhere despite the increased transmissibility,” Gupta, chief of the Division of Infectious Disease and Professor of Medicine at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, told PTI.

    “It really helps that India has done an incredible job in vaccinating its population and now it is important to continue to do this and to administer the booster shots to those who are eligible,” she added.

    Modeller Manindra Agrawal, who has been tracking India’s COVID-19 trajectory since the beginning of the pandemic, concurred.

    “Increase in social mobility, lowering of guard and removal of mask mandates are the possible reasons behind the increase in Covid cases,” Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, told PTI.

    ALSO READ: ‘COVID spread’ increased by 500 per cent in last 15 days among Delhi-NCR residents, claims survey

    “There is also no indication of a fourth wave for now. For that to happen, a new mutant will have to arise,” Agrawal added.

    As testing rates have dropped, it is not known if the cases being reported are a true indication of the situation, epidemiologist Ramanan Laxminarayan said.

    “Testing has gone down and we are likely missing cases but I would focus on hospitalisations rather than caseloads given where we are in the pandemic,” Laxminarayan, director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy in Washington and New Delhi, told PTI.

    There is a global resurgence in cases and we should expect to see greater synchronicity in Covid cases globally given that travel barriers between countries have dropped.

    “The BA.2 subvariant of Omicron appears to be more able to evade immunity to cause infections but is also less lethal possibly because of existing immunity from prior infection and vaccination,” he said.

    Scientists also cautioned against complacency.

    ALSO READ: India stopping WHO to make global COVID deaths public, claims New York Times

    Lahariya, for instance, said the world is still not over the pandemic and it is hard to predict when new variants will emerge and how they will behave.

    “We should continue close surveillance for early detection of Covid cases through existing surveillance networks in the country and be prepared to trigger recommendations to resume masking, social distancing if and when surges occur,” he added.

    The use of masks by people in Delhi has considerably reduced after a fine of Rs 500 was withdrawn by the officials earlier this month.

    Experts are divided over whether this was ideal in view of the rising number of infections.

    Agrawal noted that bringing back mask mandates would be a good step, but the data right now is insufficient to make any predictions about the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.

    As with any respiratory virus and illness, Lahariya added, we can always expect some spike on regular intervals.

    “The BA.2 and XE sublineages are now global and we are likely to see greater global convergence in Covid patterns since transmission will be easier between countries,” Laxminarayan explained.

    In recent weeks there has been a rise in Covid cases in many countries, including the US, driven by the BA.2 subvariant of coronavirus, but the hospitalisation rate has been low.

    ALSO READ: Delhi-NCR schools take preventive measures to avoid closure amid spike in COVID cases

    According to Lahariya, a comparison with any other country or making inferences from the global trend is not logical.

    “What is happening in any other country has no implication for India and carries no learning. The focus has to be using the local evidence for decision making. Every country’s context is different. BA.2 or XE which is a recombinant of BA.1 and BA.2 sub lineage is unlikely to cause major increase in cases in India.”

    “BA.2 was responsible for the recent Omicron surge in India in January-February 2022. Scientifically, we know that the same variant (and XE is just a sub-type) cannot cause a fresh wave at least for six to nine months. The caveat is that Yes, if a new variant which is more transmissible than Omicron and has immune escape, then only there is risk of a fresh wave,” he added.

    Besides Delhi, other places have also seen their Covid graph rise.

    On April 18, Kerala reported a five day rise of 940 new cases.

    The number of COVID positive cases in Haryana rose from 514 between April 5-11 to 1,119 between April 12-18, with the highest number of cases being reported from Gurugram and Faridabad, both towns adjacent to Delhi.

    Noida and Ghaziabad in Uttar Pradesh witnessed an increase in the number of infections, from around 45 daily cases across the state at the beginning of the month to 135 cases on Monday.

  • Active COVID-19 cases in country rise to 11,860

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: With 1,247 coronavirus infections being reported in a day, India’s total tally of COVID-19 cases rose to 4,30,45,527, while the active cases increased to 11,860, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Tuesday.

    The death toll climbed to 5,21,966 with one fresh fatality being reported from Uttar Pradesh, the data updated at 8 am stated.

    The active cases comprise 0.03 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate remained at 98.76 per cent, the ministry said.

    An increase of 318 cases has been recorded in the active COVID-19 caseload in a span of 24 hours. The daily positivity rate was recorded as 0.31 per cent and the weekly positivity rate as 0.34 per cent, according to the ministry.

    The number of people who have recuperated from the disease surged to 4,25,11,701, while the case fatality rate was recorded a 1.21 per cent.

    The cumulative doses administered in the country so far under the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination drive has exceeded 186.72 crore.

    India’s COVID-19 tally had crossed the 20-lakh mark on August 7, 2020, 30 lakh on August 23, 40 lakh on September 5 and 50 lakh on September 16.

    It went past 60 lakh on September 28, 70 lakh on October 11, crossed 80 lakh on October 29, 90 lakh on November 20 and surpassed the one-crore mark on December 19. The country crossed the grim milestone of two crore on May 4 and three crore on June 23 last year.

  • India logs 1,150 new COVID-19 cases

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: With 1,150 people testing positive for coronavirus infection in a day, India’s total tally of COVID-19 cases rose to 4,30,42,097, while the active cases increased to 11,558, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Sunday.

    The death to climbed to 5,21,751 with four fresh fatalities, the data updated at 8 am stated. The active cases comprise 0.03 per cent of the total infections, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate remained at 98.76 per cent, the ministry said.

    An increase of 192 cases has been recorded in the active COVID-19 caseload in a span of 24 hours. The daily positivity rate was recorded as 0.31 per cent and the weekly positivity rate was recorded as 0.27 per cent, according to the ministry.

    The number of people who have recuperated from the disease surged to 4,25,08,788, while the case fatality rate was recorded as 1.21 per cent.

    The cumulative doses administered in the country so far under the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination drive has exceeded 186.51 crore.

    India’s COVID-19 tally had crossed the 20-lakh mark on August 7, 2020, 30 lakh on August 23, 40 lakh on September 5 and 50 lakh on September 16.

    It went past 60 lakh on September 28, 70 lakh on October 11, crossed 80 lakh on October 29, 90 lakh on November 20 and surpassed the one-crore mark on December 19. The country crossed the grim milestone of two crore on May 4 and three crore on June 23 last year.

  • India questions WHO’s methodology to estimate COVID-19 mortalities

    By PTI

    NEW DELHI: India on Saturday questioned the World Health Organisation’s methodology to estimate COVID-19 mortalities in the country, saying using such a mathematical modelling cannot be applied to estimate the death figures for such a vast nation of geographical size and population.

    The Union health ministry issued a statement in response to a New York Times article titled “India Is Stalling WHO’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public” dated April 16, saying the country has on several occasions shared its concerns with the global health body over the methodology used.

    India has been in regular and in-depth technical exchange with the World Health Organisation (WHO) on the issue.

    The analysis, which uses mortality figures directly obtained from Tier I set of countries, uses a mathematical modelling process for Tier II countries (which includes India), the ministry said.

    “India’s basic objection has not been with the result (whatever they might have been), but rather the methodology adopted for the same. The model gives two highly different sets of excess mortality estimates of when using the data from Tier I countries and when using unverified data from 18 Indian states. Such a wide variation in estimates raises concerns about validity and accuracy of such a modelling exercise,” the ministry said in the statement.

    According to the health ministry, India has shared its concerns with the methodology along with other member states through a series of formal communications, including six letters issued to WHO (on November 17, December 20, 2021; December 28, 2021; January 11, 2022; February 12, 2022; and March 2, 2022) and virtual meetings held on December 16, 2021, December 28, 2021, January 6, 2022, February 25, 2022 and the SEARO Regional Webinar held on February 10, 2022.

    During these exchanges, specific queries have been raised by India along with other member states — China, Iran, Bangladesh, Syria, Ethiopia and Egypt — regarding the methodology, and use of unofficial sets of data.

    The concern specifically includes on how the statistical model projects estimates for a country of geographical size and population of India and also fits in with other countries which have smaller population, the statement said.

    Such one size fit all approach and models which are true for smaller countries like Tunisia may not be applicable to India with a population of 1.3 billion.

    “WHO is yet to share the confidence interval for the present statistical model across various countries,” the statement said.

    “India has asserted that if the model is accurate and reliable, it should be authenticated by running it for all Tier I countries and if the result of such exercise may be shared with all member states,” it said.

    The model assumes an inverse relationship between monthly temperature and monthly average deaths, which does not have any scientific backing to establish such peculiar empirical relationship.

    India is a country of continental proportions, climatic and seasonal conditions vary vastly across different states and even within a state and therefore, all states have widely varied seasonal patterns.

    “Thus, estimating national level mortality based on these 18 states data is statistically unproven,” the statement stated.

    The Global Health Estimates (GHE) 2019 on which the modelling for Tier II countries is based, is itself an estimate.

    The present modelling exercise seems to be providing its own set of estimates based on another set of historic estimates, while disregarding the data available with the country, the statement said.

    “It is not clear as to why GHE 2019 has been used for estimating expected death figures for India, whereas for the Tier 1 countries, their own historical datasets were used when it has been repeatedly highlighted that India has a robust system of data collection and management,” it stated.

    In order to calculate the age-sex death distribution for India, WHO determined standard patterns for age and sex for the countries with reported data (61 countries) and then generalised them to the other countries (incl.India) who had no such distribution in their mortality data.

    Based on this approach, India’s age-sex distribution of predicted deaths was extrapolated based on the age-sex distribution of deaths reported by four countries (Costa Rica, Israel, Paraguay and Tunisia), the ministry said in the statement.

    Of the covariates used for analysis, a binary measure for income has been used instead of a more realistic graded variable. Using a binary variable for such an important measure may lend itself to amplifying the magnitude of the variable.

    WHO has conveyed that a combination of these variables was found to be most accurate for predicting excess mortality for a sample of 90 countries and 18 months (January 2020-June 2021).

    The detailed justification of how the combination of these variables is found to be most accurate is yet to be provided by WHO, the statement noted.

    “The test positivity rate for Covid in India was never uniform throughout the country at any point of time. But, this variation in Covid positivity rate within India was not considered for modelling purposes. Further, India has undertaken COVID-19 testing at a much faster rate than what WHO has advised. India has maintained molecular testing as preferred testing methods and used Rapid Antigen as screening purpose only. Whether these factors have been used in the model for India is still unanswered,” the statement stated.

    Containment involves a lot of subjective approach (such as school closing, workplace closing, cancelling of public events) to quantify itself.

    But, it is actually impossible to quantify various measures of containment in such a manner for a country like India, as the strictness of such measures have varied widely even among the states and districts of India.

    Therefore, the approach followed in this process is very much questionable.

    “In addition, subjective approach to quantify such measures will always involve a lot of biasness which will surely not present the real situation. WHO has also agreed about the subjective approach of this measure. However, it is still used,” the statement said.

    According to the statement, during interactions with WHO, it has also been highlighted that some fluctuations in official reporting of COVID-19 data from some of the Tier I countries, including the USA, Germany, France, defied knowledge of disease epidemiology.

    Further inclusion of a country like Iraq which is undergoing an extended complex emergency under Tier I countries raises doubts on WHO’s assessment in categorisation of countries as Tier I/II and its assertion on quality of mortality reporting from these countries.

    “While India has remained open to collaborate with WHO as data sets like these will be helpful from the policy making point of view, India believes that in-depth clarity on methodology and clear proof of its validity are crucial for policy makers to feel confident about any use of such data,” the statement said.

    “It is very surprising that while New York Times purportedly could obtain the alleged figures of excess COVID-19 mortality in respect to India, it was unable to learn the estimates for other countries!,” the statement added.