Tarique Rahman’s homecoming after 17 years injects fresh vigor into BNP. The poll, conducted December 20 to January 1, gives NCP only 2.9%. BNP benefits from sympathy post-Zia’s passing, Rahman’s campaign push, and backlash against post-Hasina crime wave pinned on Jamaat extremists.

Officials from Intelligence Bureau note public fears of ISI-controlled Jamaat imposing religious rule, rejecting Iran’s model for secular progress. Ex-Awami League voters are shifting: 60% to BNP, 25% to Jamaat, as their party faces a boycott and violence against supporters.

BNP enjoys 71% women’s support, strong in Rajshahi and Chittagong (70%). 77% predict BNP win. India prefers BNP stability; Modi’s message via Jaishankar underscores ties. But warnings persist: recent Hindu murders signal rising terror, with ISI-Jamaat plotting poll delays via chaos.

Over 18 days, six Hindus killed; two in last 24 hours. Agencies predict escalation pre-election, urging border alerts against cross-border militancy.