News Analysis India

Tag: Assam poll results

  • Populism, Hindutva, ethnic outreach: BJP’s three-pronged strategy pays rich dividends in Assam

    Express News Service
    GUWAHATI: A three-pronged strategy by the BJP helped it sweep the Assam polls and retain power.

    The BJP managed to counter the Congress-led grand alliance of the Opposition through developmentalism coupled with populist schemes; core Hindutva with continuous focus on the threat to the land, language and culture of the indigenous populace from the illegal immigrants; and by aligning with ethnic political outfits to marginalize the discontent of mainstream Assamese.

    By indulging in competitive populism, the BJP-led government had targeted all communities, particularly tea workers, with various welfare schemes.

    The government had also come up with schemes for the weaker sex, including unmarried women and widows. Unmarried women from poor families get one-time financial assistance of Rs 40,000 during their wedding. Widows belonging to BPL category get a lump sum pension of Rs 300 per month.

    HIGHLIGHTS: How the Assam Assembly election results unfolded

    Under the Arunodoi Scheme launched last year, financial assistance of Rs 830 per month is given to around 17 lakh families where women, being the primary caretakers of the family, are the beneficiaries. In its election manifesto, the BJP had promised to increase the assistance to Rs 3,000 and the number of beneficiaries to 30 lakh. The BJP had also made admission in government institutions free from the primary level to post-graduation.

    Another measure of the party’s competitive populism was gifting scooties to girl students who excel in their Class 12 board exams. This election, the party had announced a gift of bullet bikes to boys but did not mention the eligibility criteria.

    “Without looking at the overall fundamentals of the economy, the BJP had created huge beneficiary schemes for all segments of the society. During electioneering, it also constantly talked about the threat to Assamese civilisation from illegal immigrants after the Congress had aligned with the minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF),” political scientist Akhil Ranjan Dutta of Gauhati University said.

    The AIUDF, seen by many in Assam as the protector of illegal immigrants, is a component of the 10-party and Congress-led grand alliance of the Opposition.

    ALSO READ: Himanta Biswa Sarma: Man of the Match of the Assam elections

    Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was at the forefront of the campaign against the AIUDF. He tried to scare people into believing that voting for the Congress would mean inviting AIUDF chief and MP Maulana Badruddin Ajmal to Dispur, the state’s seat of power.

    In the lead-up to the polls, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal had made an appeal to the voters to defeat the Mughals, alluding to the AIUDF. So, the campaign had an impact on the Assamese people, particularly in Upper Assam where a strong sentiment of Assamese sub-nationalism works.

    The Assamese are inherently linked to “namghars” which are Vaishnavite prayer centres. Almost every village has a namghar. As part of its core Hindutva, the BJP-led government had offered Rs 2.5 lakh each to 8,000 namghars across the state for a makeover and evicted alleged illegal immigrants from the Kaziranga National Park and some “satras” that are institutional centers associated with Vaishnavism.

    The BJP could reach every ethnic community both in the hills and the plains. The Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) was a challenge but the BJP found a competent ally in the United People’s Party Liberal.

    The saffron party retained ethnic political outfits such as Rabha Joutha Mancha and Tiwa Oikko Mancha. The Gana Shakti, floated a few years ago by tribal Mishing leaders, got handicapped after the BJP had managed to bring its top two leaders to its fold.

    Six communities, such as Tai-Ahom, Moran, Motok, Chutia, Tea Tribe and Koch-Rajbangshi, have for long been demanding Scheduled Tribe status. The BJP had managed to quell the movement to some extent with its decision to create territorial councils for the Koch-Rajbongshi, Moran and Motok communities. The tea workers were kept in good humour with cash bonanza and a number of welfares schemes.

    Over the past five years, the BJP focused on infrastructure development. After capturing power, it first finished the unfinished projects of the previous Congress government. Thereafter, it started building roads, including highways, statewide. It is also building three bridges over the Brahmaputra.

    Dutta observes that parties retaining power has become a post-economic liberalization phenomenon.

    “If you look at post-economic liberalization from 2002, any government coming to power in any state is having at least two terms in power. It is due to competitive populism. It happened to the Tarun Gogoi government, Nitish Kumar government, Naveen Patnaik government, Narendra Modi government, AIADMK government,” Dutta said.

  • Inability to garner trust leads to failure of alliance in Assam

    By Express News Service
    GUWAHATI:  The hotchpotch alliance of 10 opposition parties with contrasting ideologies, which also had no chief ministerial face, found few takers eventually.

    The “Mahajot”, formed two months ago to oust BJP, was led by Congress. It faced a leadership crisis and got riddled with factionalism following the death of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi.

    The Congress and minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) had come together to thwart the split of anti-BJP and anti-Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) votes. In 2016, their combined vote share was more than the winning candidates of the BJP-led alliance in 14 seats.

    If the alliance paid dividends in the Bengali-majority central and lower Assam besides Barak Valley, it cost the Congress dear in the Assamese-dominated upper part of the state. In a state grappling with the problem of illegal migration from Bangladesh, voters in upper Assam were upset that Congress aligned with AIUDF, perceived to be the protector of illegal immigrants.

    “The alliance with the AIUDF affected us greatly in upper Assam,” a Congress insider said. 

    Of other reasons, he said Congress had a leadership vacuum after Gogoi’s death. “People did not accept the leadership of state Congress chief Ripun Bora. As we did not have a CM face, people got  confused.”

    Further, the two new parties, Raijor Dal and Asom Jatiya Parishad, caused a split of the anti-BJP and anti-AGP votes in several seats, thereby affecting the Congress. Congress also overestimated or miscalculated the anti-CAA sentiments. Even as it campaigned aggressively, several leaders of the anti-CAA movement joined BJP.

  • Populism, Hindutva, ethnic outreach: BJP’s three-pronged strategy pays rich dividends in Assam

    Express News Service
    GUWAHATI: A three-pronged strategy by the BJP helped it sweep the Assam polls and retain power.

    The BJP managed to counter the Congress-led grand alliance of the Opposition through developmentalism coupled with populist schemes; core Hindutva with continuous focus on the threat to the land, language and culture of the indigenous populace from the illegal immigrants; and by aligning with ethnic political outfits to marginalize the discontent of mainstream Assamese.

    By indulging in competitive populism, the BJP-led government had targeted all communities, particularly tea workers, with various welfare schemes.

    The government had also come up with schemes for the weaker sex, including unmarried women and widows. Unmarried women from poor families get one-time financial assistance of Rs 40,000 during their wedding. Widows belonging to BPL category get a lump sum pension of Rs 300 per month.

    HIGHLIGHTS: How the Assam Assembly election results unfolded

    Under the Arunodoi Scheme launched last year, financial assistance of Rs 830 per month is given to around 17 lakh families where women, being the primary caretakers of the family, are the beneficiaries. In its election manifesto, the BJP had promised to increase the assistance to Rs 3,000 and the number of beneficiaries to 30 lakh. The BJP had also made admission in government institutions free from the primary level to post-graduation.

    Another measure of the party’s competitive populism was gifting scooties to girl students who excel in their Class 12 board exams. This election, the party had announced a gift of bullet bikes to boys but did not mention the eligibility criteria.

    “Without looking at the overall fundamentals of the economy, the BJP had created huge beneficiary schemes for all segments of the society. During electioneering, it also constantly talked about the threat to Assamese civilisation from illegal immigrants after the Congress had aligned with the minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF),” political scientist Akhil Ranjan Dutta of Gauhati University said.

    The AIUDF, seen by many in Assam as the protector of illegal immigrants, is a component of the 10-party and Congress-led grand alliance of the Opposition.

    ALSO READ: Himanta Biswa Sarma: Man of the Match of the Assam elections

    Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was at the forefront of the campaign against the AIUDF. He tried to scare people into believing that voting for the Congress would mean inviting AIUDF chief and MP Maulana Badruddin Ajmal to Dispur, the state’s seat of power.

    In the lead-up to the polls, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal had made an appeal to the voters to defeat the Mughals, alluding to the AIUDF. So, the campaign had an impact on the Assamese people, particularly in Upper Assam where a strong sentiment of Assamese sub-nationalism works.

    The Assamese are inherently linked to “namghars” which are Vaishnavite prayer centres. Almost every village has a namghar. As part of its core Hindutva, the BJP-led government had offered Rs 2.5 lakh each to 8,000 namghars across the state for a makeover and evicted alleged illegal immigrants from the Kaziranga National Park and some “satras” that are institutional centers associated with Vaishnavism.

    The BJP could reach every ethnic community both in the hills and the plains. The Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) was a challenge but the BJP found a competent ally in the United People’s Party Liberal.

    The saffron party retained ethnic political outfits such as Rabha Joutha Mancha and Tiwa Oikko Mancha. The Gana Shakti, floated a few years ago by tribal Mishing leaders, got handicapped after the BJP had managed to bring its top two leaders to its fold.

    Six communities, such as Tai-Ahom, Moran, Motok, Chutia, Tea Tribe and Koch-Rajbangshi, have for long been demanding Scheduled Tribe status. The BJP had managed to quell the movement to some extent with its decision to create territorial councils for the Koch-Rajbongshi, Moran and Motok communities. The tea workers were kept in good humour with cash bonanza and a number of welfares schemes.

    Over the past five years, the BJP focused on infrastructure development. After capturing power, it first finished the unfinished projects of the previous Congress government. Thereafter, it started building roads, including highways, statewide. It is also building three bridges over the Brahmaputra.

    Dutta observes that parties retaining power has become a post-economic liberalization phenomenon.

    “If you look at post-economic liberalization from 2002, any government coming to power in any state is having at least two terms in power. It is due to competitive populism. It happened to the Tarun Gogoi government, Nitish Kumar government, Naveen Patnaik government, Narendra Modi government, AIADMK government,” Dutta said.

  • Assam polls: Can Congress stop BJP juggernaut?

    Express News Service
    GUWAHATI: The results of the Assam elections on Sunday will decide if the BJP retains power or a nationally-weakened Congress stages a comeback.

    Assam, in one way, is a vital state for both parties. For the BJP, the state is important not just for the party organisation but also for party ideology – the National Register of Citizens or NRC is its flagship ideological programme.

    For the Congress, which is losing almost everywhere, the return to power will give the party much-needed oxygen. The exit polls have given an edge to the BJP-led ruling coalition which has the regional Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) as components.

    Similarly, 10 parties, led by the Congress, had formed a grand alliance of Opposition ahead of the polls. Its two other key constituents are minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which is an estranged ally of the BJP.

    The elections were fought on the planks of development, welfare of state’s tea garden community, Citizenship (Amendment) Act, waiving off the loans of women taken from microfinance institutions, giving jobs to the unemployed, protecting the “satras” (Vaishnavite prayer centres) and the rhinos etc.

    Forty-seven of the state’s 126 seats, which went to first phase elections on March 27, will be decisive for the BJP. In the 2016 polls, the BJP-AGP combine had bagged 35 of them, spread across five Parliamentary constituencies of Dibrugarh, Lakhimpur, Jorhat, Tezpur and Kaliabor in Upper and Northern Assam. They have large numbers of Assamese and tea garden voters.

    ALSO READ | Assam logs record 26 COVID deaths in one day, 3,197 new cases; night curfew extended till May 7

    For long, the tea workers had voted for the Congress until they started shifting allegiance to the BJP in 2014. The BJP initiated several steps for the welfare of the community and also doled out money to keep them in good humour but failed to give them a daily wage of Rs 350 despite a commitment. Raising it from the existing Rs 167 to Rs 365 was one of the five “guarantees” announced by the Congress.

    If the first phase polls were more about the fate of the ruling coalition, particularly BJP and AGP, the stakes were high for the Congress-AIUDF combine in the next two phases across constituencies in the Barak Valley and Central and Lower Assam.

    Bengali Muslims, considered the vote banks of Congress and AIUDF, are in a large majority in a number of the seats. The two parties had come together to thwart the split of anti-BJP votes. In the last elections, their combined vote share was more than that of the winning candidates from the BJP coalition in 14 seats.

    Thirty-nine constituencies went to the second phase polls on April 1. Fifteen of them were in the Bengali-majority Barak Valley where Hindus and Muslims constitute a nearly equal percentage of populations. The BJP had won eight seats, AIUDF four and Congress three in 2016. This time, however, the Congress-AIUDF combine was expected to fare better, thanks to their alliance.

    The Opposition alliance also had an edge over the ruling alliance in the final phase polls held in 40 constituencies of Lower Assam on April 6. In 2016, BJP and Congress had won 11 seats each, AIUDF six, BPF eight and AGP four.

    One factor that could possibly harm the BJP was its decision to sever ties with the BPF and align with the UPPL in the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR). The BPF had won all 12 seats in the BTR in 2016.

    The BJP will also suffer somewhat due to the birth of two regional entities – Asom Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal. The perception was that the two new entrants would cause the split of AGP votes, for the options for people believing in regionalism, had widened. A loss for the AGP is a loss for the BJP.

    Meanwhile, both alliances have trashed the exit-poll predictions. According to the BJP’s assessment, the party will bag 70 seats, AGP eight and UPPL five. However, questioning the scientific basis and sample size of exit polls and alleging that they are manipulated, the Congress claimed the Opposition alliance would win at least 75 seats.