News Analysis India

Tag: Assam election results

  • Question mark continues to hang over next Assam CM leaving BJP leaders embarrassed

    Express News Service
    GUWAHATI: The BJP continues to face the chief ministerial conundrum in Assam.

    Five days after the Assembly election results were declared and the CMs of some states took their oath, Assam still does not know who is going to lead the government.

    The BJP has not been able to choose between incumbent CM Sarbananda Sonowal and party strongman Himanta Biswa Sarma. Party’s central leaders JP Nadda and Amit Shah had met in New Delhi on Thursday night, apparently to discuss the matter.

    The uncertainty has left the state leaders embarrassed. They are avoiding phone calls from journalists, for they have no idea when the new government will be installed or who will head it. For the past three days, they have been saying that it will be decided by the party’s Parliamentary Board.

    ALSO READ | Himanta Biswa Sarma: Man of the Match of the Assam elections

    Apart from Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, which is a Union Territory, went to polls. The new government has been installed in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. It is delayed in Kerala due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

    Five days later, Sonowal appeared in public on Friday to monitor the Covid situation.

    Asked about the uncertainty, he told journalists, “It is not a big thing who will become the next CM. The big thing is the protection of the people of Assam from the Covid virus.”

    He said the party’s Parliamentary Board would meet in a day or two and decide the next CM.

    “There will definitely be a government. The Parliamentary Board is meeting in a day or two. It will take the final decision,” Sonowal said.

    However, party MP, Horen Sing Bey claimed the decision has been already made.

    “I learnt the Parliamentary Board has met and taken a decision on the next CM. One or two BJP central observers will visit Assam this evening or tomorrow,” Bey told journalists.

    Over a dozen BJP MLAs loyal to Sarma were seen visiting his residence on Friday. What transpired there was in the realms of speculation. Earlier, at least two BJP MLAs had said on record that one, who is the most efficient, should become the CM.

    The Congress criticised the BJP for allegedly pushing the people into a state of chaos.

    “We need a government which can work on a war-footing to fight Covid. The people of Assam gave them a clear mandate. Now when one minute is precious for us, there is chaos all over in the absence of a government. It is unfortunate that the BJP hasn’t been able to decide on its CM candidate,” state Congress chief Ripun Bora said.

    The BJP-led alliance had retained power by winning 75 of the 126 seats. 

  • Populism, Hindutva, ethnic outreach: BJP’s three-pronged strategy pays rich dividends in Assam

    Express News Service
    GUWAHATI: A three-pronged strategy by the BJP helped it sweep the Assam polls and retain power.

    The BJP managed to counter the Congress-led grand alliance of the Opposition through developmentalism coupled with populist schemes; core Hindutva with continuous focus on the threat to the land, language and culture of the indigenous populace from the illegal immigrants; and by aligning with ethnic political outfits to marginalize the discontent of mainstream Assamese.

    By indulging in competitive populism, the BJP-led government had targeted all communities, particularly tea workers, with various welfare schemes.

    The government had also come up with schemes for the weaker sex, including unmarried women and widows. Unmarried women from poor families get one-time financial assistance of Rs 40,000 during their wedding. Widows belonging to BPL category get a lump sum pension of Rs 300 per month.

    HIGHLIGHTS: How the Assam Assembly election results unfolded

    Under the Arunodoi Scheme launched last year, financial assistance of Rs 830 per month is given to around 17 lakh families where women, being the primary caretakers of the family, are the beneficiaries. In its election manifesto, the BJP had promised to increase the assistance to Rs 3,000 and the number of beneficiaries to 30 lakh. The BJP had also made admission in government institutions free from the primary level to post-graduation.

    Another measure of the party’s competitive populism was gifting scooties to girl students who excel in their Class 12 board exams. This election, the party had announced a gift of bullet bikes to boys but did not mention the eligibility criteria.

    “Without looking at the overall fundamentals of the economy, the BJP had created huge beneficiary schemes for all segments of the society. During electioneering, it also constantly talked about the threat to Assamese civilisation from illegal immigrants after the Congress had aligned with the minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF),” political scientist Akhil Ranjan Dutta of Gauhati University said.

    The AIUDF, seen by many in Assam as the protector of illegal immigrants, is a component of the 10-party and Congress-led grand alliance of the Opposition.

    ALSO READ: Himanta Biswa Sarma: Man of the Match of the Assam elections

    Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was at the forefront of the campaign against the AIUDF. He tried to scare people into believing that voting for the Congress would mean inviting AIUDF chief and MP Maulana Badruddin Ajmal to Dispur, the state’s seat of power.

    In the lead-up to the polls, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal had made an appeal to the voters to defeat the Mughals, alluding to the AIUDF. So, the campaign had an impact on the Assamese people, particularly in Upper Assam where a strong sentiment of Assamese sub-nationalism works.

    The Assamese are inherently linked to “namghars” which are Vaishnavite prayer centres. Almost every village has a namghar. As part of its core Hindutva, the BJP-led government had offered Rs 2.5 lakh each to 8,000 namghars across the state for a makeover and evicted alleged illegal immigrants from the Kaziranga National Park and some “satras” that are institutional centers associated with Vaishnavism.

    The BJP could reach every ethnic community both in the hills and the plains. The Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) was a challenge but the BJP found a competent ally in the United People’s Party Liberal.

    The saffron party retained ethnic political outfits such as Rabha Joutha Mancha and Tiwa Oikko Mancha. The Gana Shakti, floated a few years ago by tribal Mishing leaders, got handicapped after the BJP had managed to bring its top two leaders to its fold.

    Six communities, such as Tai-Ahom, Moran, Motok, Chutia, Tea Tribe and Koch-Rajbangshi, have for long been demanding Scheduled Tribe status. The BJP had managed to quell the movement to some extent with its decision to create territorial councils for the Koch-Rajbongshi, Moran and Motok communities. The tea workers were kept in good humour with cash bonanza and a number of welfares schemes.

    Over the past five years, the BJP focused on infrastructure development. After capturing power, it first finished the unfinished projects of the previous Congress government. Thereafter, it started building roads, including highways, statewide. It is also building three bridges over the Brahmaputra.

    Dutta observes that parties retaining power has become a post-economic liberalization phenomenon.

    “If you look at post-economic liberalization from 2002, any government coming to power in any state is having at least two terms in power. It is due to competitive populism. It happened to the Tarun Gogoi government, Nitish Kumar government, Naveen Patnaik government, Narendra Modi government, AIADMK government,” Dutta said.

  • Inability to garner trust leads to failure of alliance in Assam

    By Express News Service
    GUWAHATI:  The hotchpotch alliance of 10 opposition parties with contrasting ideologies, which also had no chief ministerial face, found few takers eventually.

    The “Mahajot”, formed two months ago to oust BJP, was led by Congress. It faced a leadership crisis and got riddled with factionalism following the death of former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi.

    The Congress and minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) had come together to thwart the split of anti-BJP and anti-Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) votes. In 2016, their combined vote share was more than the winning candidates of the BJP-led alliance in 14 seats.

    If the alliance paid dividends in the Bengali-majority central and lower Assam besides Barak Valley, it cost the Congress dear in the Assamese-dominated upper part of the state. In a state grappling with the problem of illegal migration from Bangladesh, voters in upper Assam were upset that Congress aligned with AIUDF, perceived to be the protector of illegal immigrants.

    “The alliance with the AIUDF affected us greatly in upper Assam,” a Congress insider said. 

    Of other reasons, he said Congress had a leadership vacuum after Gogoi’s death. “People did not accept the leadership of state Congress chief Ripun Bora. As we did not have a CM face, people got  confused.”

    Further, the two new parties, Raijor Dal and Asom Jatiya Parishad, caused a split of the anti-BJP and anti-AGP votes in several seats, thereby affecting the Congress. Congress also overestimated or miscalculated the anti-CAA sentiments. Even as it campaigned aggressively, several leaders of the anti-CAA movement joined BJP.

  • Populism, Hindutva, ethnic outreach: BJP’s three-pronged strategy pays rich dividends in Assam

    Express News Service
    GUWAHATI: A three-pronged strategy by the BJP helped it sweep the Assam polls and retain power.

    The BJP managed to counter the Congress-led grand alliance of the Opposition through developmentalism coupled with populist schemes; core Hindutva with continuous focus on the threat to the land, language and culture of the indigenous populace from the illegal immigrants; and by aligning with ethnic political outfits to marginalize the discontent of mainstream Assamese.

    By indulging in competitive populism, the BJP-led government had targeted all communities, particularly tea workers, with various welfare schemes.

    The government had also come up with schemes for the weaker sex, including unmarried women and widows. Unmarried women from poor families get one-time financial assistance of Rs 40,000 during their wedding. Widows belonging to BPL category get a lump sum pension of Rs 300 per month.

    HIGHLIGHTS: How the Assam Assembly election results unfolded

    Under the Arunodoi Scheme launched last year, financial assistance of Rs 830 per month is given to around 17 lakh families where women, being the primary caretakers of the family, are the beneficiaries. In its election manifesto, the BJP had promised to increase the assistance to Rs 3,000 and the number of beneficiaries to 30 lakh. The BJP had also made admission in government institutions free from the primary level to post-graduation.

    Another measure of the party’s competitive populism was gifting scooties to girl students who excel in their Class 12 board exams. This election, the party had announced a gift of bullet bikes to boys but did not mention the eligibility criteria.

    “Without looking at the overall fundamentals of the economy, the BJP had created huge beneficiary schemes for all segments of the society. During electioneering, it also constantly talked about the threat to Assamese civilisation from illegal immigrants after the Congress had aligned with the minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF),” political scientist Akhil Ranjan Dutta of Gauhati University said.

    The AIUDF, seen by many in Assam as the protector of illegal immigrants, is a component of the 10-party and Congress-led grand alliance of the Opposition.

    ALSO READ: Himanta Biswa Sarma: Man of the Match of the Assam elections

    Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was at the forefront of the campaign against the AIUDF. He tried to scare people into believing that voting for the Congress would mean inviting AIUDF chief and MP Maulana Badruddin Ajmal to Dispur, the state’s seat of power.

    In the lead-up to the polls, Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal had made an appeal to the voters to defeat the Mughals, alluding to the AIUDF. So, the campaign had an impact on the Assamese people, particularly in Upper Assam where a strong sentiment of Assamese sub-nationalism works.

    The Assamese are inherently linked to “namghars” which are Vaishnavite prayer centres. Almost every village has a namghar. As part of its core Hindutva, the BJP-led government had offered Rs 2.5 lakh each to 8,000 namghars across the state for a makeover and evicted alleged illegal immigrants from the Kaziranga National Park and some “satras” that are institutional centers associated with Vaishnavism.

    The BJP could reach every ethnic community both in the hills and the plains. The Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) was a challenge but the BJP found a competent ally in the United People’s Party Liberal.

    The saffron party retained ethnic political outfits such as Rabha Joutha Mancha and Tiwa Oikko Mancha. The Gana Shakti, floated a few years ago by tribal Mishing leaders, got handicapped after the BJP had managed to bring its top two leaders to its fold.

    Six communities, such as Tai-Ahom, Moran, Motok, Chutia, Tea Tribe and Koch-Rajbangshi, have for long been demanding Scheduled Tribe status. The BJP had managed to quell the movement to some extent with its decision to create territorial councils for the Koch-Rajbongshi, Moran and Motok communities. The tea workers were kept in good humour with cash bonanza and a number of welfares schemes.

    Over the past five years, the BJP focused on infrastructure development. After capturing power, it first finished the unfinished projects of the previous Congress government. Thereafter, it started building roads, including highways, statewide. It is also building three bridges over the Brahmaputra.

    Dutta observes that parties retaining power has become a post-economic liberalization phenomenon.

    “If you look at post-economic liberalization from 2002, any government coming to power in any state is having at least two terms in power. It is due to competitive populism. It happened to the Tarun Gogoi government, Nitish Kumar government, Naveen Patnaik government, Narendra Modi government, AIADMK government,” Dutta said.