SR Raghuvanshi, Guna. Guna Lok Sabha seat of Madhya Pradesh is one of the high profile seats. Actually, Bharatiya Janata Party has fielded Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia from here. In the last election, Scindia had lost the election by about 1.25 lakh votes. He was in Congress in the 2019 elections, now he is a BJP candidate. Last time he was defeated by Dr. KP Yadav after contesting the elections as a BJP candidate. This time Congress has given ticket to Rao Yadavendra Singh. The fight between Scindia and Yadvendra has been complicated by the caste equations of the area. Because of this, tough competition is expected on this seat.
Bharatiya Janata Party has fielded Jyotiraditya Scindia from the election field by canceling the ticket of KP Yadav. Whereas Congress has fielded Rao Yadvendra Singh, son of late Rao Deshraj Singh Yadav, a prominent BJP leader of the area. The number of Yadav voters is high in this area. There is also resentment among KP Singh Yadav due to his ticket being canceled. Due to regional equations, Jatav, Gurjar and Lodhi voters have also become disillusioned with BJP, especially Scindia. If this society does not stand firm then Scindia may be in trouble. However, till now they seem to have the upper hand in the elections.
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Election stuck in Guna
The Scindia family has always dominated the Guna-Shivpuri Lok Sabha constituency. Except the last election, no member of this family lost the election from here. But after losing the 2019 elections, Scindia appeared angry with the people of the area for a long time. Even in the assembly elections, his supporters did not win in the same numbers as he had won in 2018 while being in Congress. Because of this this area remained neglected for a long time. Now BJP has canceled the ticket of its MP KP Singh Yadav who had created a record of defeating a member of the Scindia family for the first time.
Although the Chief Minister of the state is Dr. Mohan Yadav, the Yadav community can go to the side of Rao Yadvendra Singh Yadav of Congress. Among other castes, the Lodhi community is not only angry due to the neglect of former Chief Minister Uma Bharti, it seems like they have an undisclosed agreement with the Yadav community. Yadav community has voted for Pritam Lodhi in Pichhor, now it is the turn of Lodhi community to repay the favor in the Lok Sabha elections. Gurjar and Jatav communities no longer appear to be one-sided but divided. Due to this, the election of Guna seat seems stuck.
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impact of these issues
Guna Lok Sabha constituency is affected by all kinds of issues. People seem to be influenced by national issues and the wave of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After Scindia’s defeat, this area remained neglected. The state government also did not pay special attention. For this reason there is resentment among the people. Being from Chambal-Gwalior region, there is an influence of caste politics here. This will influence the elections. The Scindia family has done a lot of development work for the area. Their effect is also visible in the elections.
BJP has the upper hand in terms of assembly seats
The assembly seats of three districts Guna, Ashoknagar and Shivpuri come under Guna Lok Sabha seat. These include Bamori, Guna of Guna district, Pichor, Kolaras, Shivpuri of Shivpuri district and Mungawali, Chanderi and Ashok Nagar assembly seats of Ashok Nagar district. According to the results of the assembly elections, BJP seems to have an upper hand in the entire Lok Sabha constituency. BJP has 6 seats while Congress has only two seats.
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Dominance of Scindia family
Talking about the political mood of this seat, the Scindia family has been dominant here. Till 1998, Rajmata Vijayaraje Scindia kept contesting and winning elections from this seat on BJP ticket. After this, when his son Madhavrao Scindia left Gwalior and came to contest elections from Guna, this seat became Congress. Madhavrao Scindia won the 1998 Lok Sabha elections from here. After this, when he died, Jyotiraditya took over his political legacy. He contested and won the 2004, 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections on Congress ticket. For the first time in 2019, he faced defeat. He was defeated in the election by his own colleague KP Singh Yadav who joined BJP. After this Jyotiraditya joined BJP.
The role of these castes is important
Guna-Shivpuri parliamentary constituency is dominated by four castes, Yadav, Jatav, Lodhi and Gurjar community. There are around three lakh voters of Jatav community and around two and a half lakh voters of Yadav community. After this is the number of Lodhi and Gurjar voters. This is also about one and a half lakh. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, voters of all these castes were united. Because of this, Jyotiraditya Scindia lost the election by a margin of 1.25 lakh votes.
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This time too these voters have the capability to spoil anyone’s game. It is considered certain that a large number of Yadav community will go in favor of Congress, while a large number of Gurjar and Jatav voters may go in favor of BJP. Apart from these, there are other communities in the area including Vaishya, Brahmin and Kshatriya. Other voters also remain under their influence. These also play a decisive and important role in elections.
Who will win?
On one hand, the Scindia family has put in all its strength. Apart from Jyotiraditya, his wife Priyadarshini Raje and son Aryaman Scindia are continuously visiting parliamentary constituencies. Going from village to village, meeting people and doing public relations. On the other hand, Congress party is also trying its best. Now it has to be seen who wins in the political arena of Lok Sabha elections 2024? This will be known after the results to be declared on June 4, 2024.
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