Extending support to PM-designate Narendra Modi after the Lok Sabha poll results, Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde said the alliance of BJP and Shiv Sena of Balasaheb Thackeray’s ideal is “Fevicol ka jod” which is unbreakable. His comments came amid widespread concerns that Modi 3.0 was propped up by slippery allies who could shift their loyalties.When Modi became the PM in 2014, it was a clean break in Indian politics. The BJP had enough of its seats to not depend on any ally for survival. India had seen coalition politics for decades when coalition governments, often unstable and marked by various pulls and pushes, had become a new normal.Modi’s decisive mandate changed Indian politics. Gone were the days when allies used to hold the prime minister to ransom. During the UPA II government led by Sonia Gandhi, coalition politics was blamed for corruption and policy paralysis. Modi was free of coalition constraints and was able to shape the economy and governance according to his will. Major reforms were possible solely due to the full majority of the BJP. In fact, the BJP fell out with several of its allies, notably Shiv Sena and the Akalis. Before this Lok Sabha election, the BJP also snapped ties with the AIADMK. Many began to think that India was headed towards one-party rule.But Modi 3.0, which lacks full majority, is widely seen as a weaker dispensation dependent on TDP chief Chardrababu Naidu and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar.
The NDA bonhomieThe TDP was part of the BJP-led NDA but exited in 2018 when Naidu was the state’s chief minister. JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar has for a long time been in a love-hate relationship with the BJP. He has partnered and then junked the BJP several times. With this complicated background, many see the future of the NDA coalition shaky .Both Nitish and Naidu were also expected to extract their pound of flesh.
But after the allocation of portfolios to ministers, it became clear that the allies were not very demanding. Modi kept the core ministries while allies got mostly peripheral portfolios. The NCP was an exception which showed dissatisfaction at the offer of the minister of state and rejected it.Later, Nitish Kumar, speaking at an NDA parliamentary meeting, took a swipe at the Congress-led INDIA opposition bloc, declaring his unwavering support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Kumar said, “I will be with PM Modi at all times.” He expressed confidence in the future electoral success of the NDA, saying, “Next time when you come, the people who have won here and there this time will lose next time. We are fully confident about it, In a rare gesture, Nitish even tried to touch Modi’s feet but was embraced by Modi.Today, at the oath-taking ceremony of Chadrababu Naidu, ample bonhomie was on display between Modi and Naidu and head of Jana Sena Party Pawan Kalyan. As Naidu moved away from dias towards PM Modi, he shook hands with PM Modi who presented him with a bouquet. And what followed was a long hug and a pat on the back as Naidu turned emotional.
The ceremony was filled with emotional moments and memorable scenes. PM Modi stood with megastar Chiranjeevi and his brother Pawan Kalyan, raising their hands and hugging each other. This heartfelt moment moved Ram Charan, Chiranjeevi’s son, to tears as he watched his father and uncle share the stage with the Prime Minister.
The uncertainty of coalition governmentsThe bonhomie on display between PM Modi and the NDA allies is contrary to what many had expected: a lot of messy haggling over portfolios and competitive wooing of parties by the NDA and the INDIA block of opposition parties. The NDA has been off to a harmonious start. However, coalition governments often spring surprises over time.
Since the BJP has previously run coalition governments under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, it is conversant with this political culture. But it will have to learn to live with several partners, which it is no longer accustomed to. The BJP’s coalition era leaders, such as LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi, have all receded to the background. Few at the top of the party today know how to manage fickle partners.
The uncertainty and precarity of the coalition era of the past, however, may not be visible in Modi 3.0. Many think both Nitish and Naidu will be focused on their state governments and would expect financial help from the Centre.