How rising crude could affect India’s fuel market and inflation

Geopolitical friction in the Strait of Hormuz and a dip in Saudi output have tightened global oil supplies, lifting crude benchmarks. For India, higher import costs translate into a larger trade deficit and upside pressure on consumer price index numbers. Experts suggest that if crude stays elevated, OMCs may struggle to maintain margins, potentially leading to a hike in petrol, diesel and even LPG prices. The International Credit Rating Agency (ICRA) estimates that sustained high crude could erode OMC earnings, making a price correction increasingly likely.