Precious Metals Outlook: US inflation watch pressures gold, lifts silver

Gold entered Monday’s trading session under slight pressure as investors booked gains after the metal hit its highest level since mid‑June. Spot gold fell 0.5% to USD 4,322 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures slipped 0.4% to USD 4,381. The pull‑back comes as markets gear up for the U.S. inflation report, which will provide fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

In India, MCX gold futures were down 0.70% at Rs 1,52,050 per 10 grams, while MCX silver futures rose 0.90% to Rs 2,33,030 per kilogram. The divergence highlights silver’s continued strength as a safe‑haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Commodity analyst Ajay Kedia noted that gold’s recent surge of 1.99% to Rs 1,51,820 was driven by softer U.S. inflation data, easing crude‑oil prices, and reduced expectations of further Fed hikes. Yet the market still assigns a 55% probability to a September rate increase, keeping the metal vulnerable to any surprise in the upcoming data.

The dollar’s relative weakness—trading close to a two‑month low—generally supports gold, but profit‑taking and the anticipation of U.S. price pressures are balancing that effect. Meanwhile, the ongoing Iran‑U.S. tension remains a backdrop that could reignite demand for gold and silver if escalation occurs.