Category: Articles

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s landslide victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections is based on many stunning results. None is probably so compelling and puzzling as its phenomenal win in West Bengal. Almost all commentators, including the authors of this article, had underestimated the BJP’s performance by a wide margin.

From a seat count of two in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has increased its tally to 18 in 2019. Equally, if not more, impressive is the increase in its vote share from 16.8% in 2014 to 40.25% in 2019.

In this article, we provide some preliminary attempts to this make sense of BJP’s unprecedented victory in West Bengal. We do so by looking at the pattern of BJP’s vote share gain across regions and by studying the relationship between BJP’s gains and losses of the AITC (All India Trinamool Congress) and the LF (Left Front, comprising the Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Revolutionary Socialist Party and All India Forward Bloc).

Our analysis highlights three factors that, in combination, led to these results. First, there was an unmistakable electoral wave in favour of the BJP. Second, the BJP could partially consolidate its gains in north Bengal. Third, and most importantly, the BJP gained (and the AITC lost) is a major way in the western part of the state – the Jangal Mahal area. Most commentators have so far focused on the first and second factors; we want to argue for the importance of the third.

Our argument is based on an analysis of vote shares of the key parties in West Bengal. We rely for our analysis on data provided by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on it website. Hence it is important to note a caveat at the very outset: any possible problem in the ECI data would automatically make our analysis incorrect.

Table 1 summarises the information we use for our analysis – it gives data on the winning party, BJP’s vote share and AITC’s vote share across all parliamentary constituencies of West Bengal in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019.

The spatial pattern of the data is summarised in four maps. Figure 1 shows the spatial pattern of the seats won by different parties in 2014 and 2019; Figure 2 and 3 show the patterns of BJP’s and AITC’s vote share, respectively, in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls; and Figure 4 shows the spatial pattern of the change in BJP’s and AITC’s vote share between the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019. Finally, Figures 5 and 6, depict the relationship between BJP’s gain and losses of the Left Front and AITC. Together, the data presented in Table 1 and visually summarised in the figures can help us in making some sense of the results.

Changes in vote share across parties

The first thing worth noting is the massive scale and scope of the BJP’s victory. One way to see this is to look at the penultimate column in Table 1 or turn to the first panel in Figure 4. In noparliamentary constituency did the BJP witness a decline in its vote share between 2014 and 2019.

The lowest increase of 3.93 percentage points came in Baharampur, and the highest increase of 42.15 percentage points was witnessed in Purulia. Of course, both these constituencies are outliers in terms of the increase in BJP’s vote share. All other constituencies saw an increase of between 9 and 35 percentage points – with 19 constituencies witnessing an increase in BJP’s vote share by more than 25 percentage points.

Another way to highlight the scale and scope of BJP’s victory is to compare its vote share change with the AITC’s and Left Front’s vote share change.

BJP leader Mukul Roy described Trinamool Congress (TMC) president Mamata Banerjee’s offer to quit as the West Bengal chief minister following her party’s drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls as nothing but a drama to stay in the news. Banerjee would never step down from the chief minister’s post as she was more keen on relishing the powers of the chair, he said.

“Mamata Banerjee offering to quit is nothing but a drama. She said all these only to stay in the news headlines. To whom did she submit her resignation? She herself is the party (TMC). Has anybody seen her resignation papers?

“I think she submitted the resignation to herself and then rejected it on her own,” the BJP leader mocked while speaking to reporters here.

“She (Banerjee) is more keen on relishing the powers of chief minister and will never resign unless the people of West Bengal use their democratic rights to throw her out,” Roy, who was Banerjee’s right-hand man before joining the BJP, said.

Perhaps no other speech that Narendra Modi has made since he became Prime Minister in 2014 has been so widely appreciated as the one he delivered at the meeting of the newly elected MPs of the National Democratic Alliance on Saturday in the Central Hall of parliament. It indicated that he wants to change the substance, idiom and image of his second term in office.

Both admirers and critics could see the difference between Campaigner Modi and Captain Modi. After all, he had led the most polarising campaign in the history of parliamentary elections. But having won the renewed mandate, Modi, who will be sworn in as India’s PM for a new five-year term on Thursday, has struck a new, distinctly de-polarising tone.

His speech was truly praiseworthy on many counts – above all, on his new outreach to Indian Muslims. What he said on this count – and, more importantly, whether his actions match his fine words – will determine how history will judge the Modi Legacy.

There were two noteworthy points in his message to Muslims. First, he affirmed the need to win the ‘vishwas’ (trust) of Muslims. “Minorities”, he said,”have been deceived in the country through an imaginary fear created for the purpose of votebank politics. Humein is chhal ka vicchched karna hai. Humein vishwas jeetna hai (We have to pierce this deception. We have to gain trust.)” Second, he sought to drill a hole in a deeply-held belief and prejudice in his own ideological fraternity – namely, that Muslims are not “Us”, they are the “Other”. He said, “Ab hamara koyi paraaya nahinho sakta hai. Jo humein vote dete hain, woh bhi hamare hain; jo hamara ghor virodh karte hain, who bhi hamare hain. (Now we cannot see anyone as an outsider. Those who voted for us are ours. Those who severely oppose us are also ours.)”

Why has Modi undertaken this new and uncharacteristically direct outreach to Muslims? And why now? The second question is easily answered. Now that he has won a bigger and far more emphatic mandate, which is almost entirely a mandate for Modi and not for the BJP, he feels far more self-confident of steering his party and his government in the direction he wants. He does not even feel constrained by the ideological rigidities of the Sangh Parivar in this respect. The Sangh Parivar has to accept his line – and not the other way round. It is worth recalling here that, as Gujarat’s three-term Chief Minister, he had tamed the all-powerful Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and other affiliates of the RSS in the state.

To know the answer to the first question, we should look at the compulsions as well as opportunities before Modi on both domestic and foreign policy fronts. The domestic compulsion is that with the voters’ expectations from him having soared sky-high, he has to perform to their satisfaction – especially on the economic front. The economy is not in a good shape. The demand for employment is pressing and widespread. The distress in agriculture remains unmitigated. And even though price rise was not much of an issue in the just-concluded elections, the likelihood of a spurt in oil prices (due to war-like tensions between USA and Iran) could add to the common people’s woes. In this situation, Modi understands the critical need for domestic peace, which can be breached by hardliners among his own supporters, making Muslims feel insecure. His words “Ab hamara koyi paraaya nahin ho sakta hai” is clearly directed at them.

The Varanasi visit comes three days before he takes oath after being re-elected as Prime Minister for a second term.

An LED screen was installed at the entrance of temple which live-streamed visuals from inside when he offered prayers. The chief priest performed a ritual with PM Modi.

PM Modi won from Varanasi by a huge margin of 4.79 lakh votes. He not only retained his seat, but also saw his victory margin increase by nearly a lakh votes as compared to 2014.

In a video message ahead of the May 19 polling, PM Modi had called himself a “Kashivasi (a resident of Varanasi)” and termed the city his guiding spirit.

PM Modi on Sunday met his 98-year-old mother in Ahmedabad. While there, he also held a rally and addressed the people of his home state, which he ruled as a Chief Minister for 13 years. He repeated that the election had a pro-incumbency wave. “After the sixth phase of polling, I had said that it’s 300 plus for us. When I said it, people mocked me. But the results are for everyone to see,” he said.

The BJP handed out a crushing defeat to the Congress and other opposition parties by bagging 303 out of 542 Lok Sabha seats that went to polls.

To facilitate refund investors from chitfund company Pearl Agrotech Corporation Limited, the Collector Dr. Basavaraju S. on the directives of the District Panchayat, all the district panchayat offices and all the zonal offices of Raipur municipal corporation have been started.

The last date of application for SEBI has been increased from April 30 to July 31. Collector Dr. Basavaraju S. has said that the applicants of Raipur district who have not been able to apply till date have been required to submit necessary documents in the service center for all the municipal zonal offices, district panchayat raipur or related district panchayat offices for their refund till July 31. Can be present online and apply online.

     The CEO of the District Panchayat said that in Raipur district, 3 thousand 362 people have so far submitted applications for obtaining claim amounting to 20 million 20 lakh 24 thousand 710 rupees. In this, 306 people of the Arang Janpad Panchayat have applied to them that 77 lakh 61 thousand 634 rupees have been deposited to PACL and Rs. 1 crore 76 lakh 54 thousand 912 have to get the claim amount. Similarly, 1221 people of Abhanpur Janpad Panchayat have applied for application that they have deposited 4 crore 17 lakh 32 thousand 360 rupees and they have to get the claim of 8 crore 42 lakh 79 thousand 946 rupees.

      897 people of Raipur have applied in which they have deposited Rs.3772 lakhs 18 thousand and they will get the claim of 6 crore 45 lakh 43 thousand 956 rupees.
In Beirgon, 255 people have deposited 87 lakhs, 22 thousand rupees and they have to get 90 lakhs of claimed and in Tilda district, 622 people have deposited 1 crore 37 lakh one thousand 220 rupees and they have to get Rs 2 crore 26 lakh 31 thousand 196 claims, 61 people of Dharsinva Janpad Panchayat have deposited 21 lakh 89 thousand 918 and they have 39 Millions of rupees 14 thousand 700 are required to get the claim.

    CDO said that the applicants who had not been able to apply till now had been present in these service centers with their PACL certificate and voucher, pen number, canceled check, applicant’s photo and bank account passbook at the time of the office for their refund. You can apply for free online application.

President Ram Nath Kovind Saturday dissolved the 16th Lok Sabha with immediate effect on recommendation of the Union cabinet, the Rashtrapati Bhavan said in a statement.

A communique issued by the Rashtrapati Bhavan said the President dissolved the Lok Sabha after a cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi made such a recommendation Friday.

“The President has accepted the advice of the Cabinet on 24.05.2019 and signed the Order dissolving the 16th Lok Sabha,” it said.

The president had on Friday accepted the resignation of PM Modi and his council of ministers but asked them to continue as caretaker until formation of a new government.

Prime Minister Modi is expected to take oath as a new prime minister next week

In the just-concluded parliamentary polls, the BJP scored a resounding victory, bagging 303 out of 542 seats. The Congress has managed to win only 52 seats.

After the Congress rout in Rajasthan, the biggest question doing the rounds in state politics is: Will Ashok Gehlot go as chief minister for failing to win even a single seat for the party in Lok Sabha election?

Some senior BJP leaders are indicating that the Congress government in the state may also be in danger, claiming that some Congress legislators were in touch with the BJP to switch sides.

Gehlot came under attack from BJP leaders who mocked him for failing to win even Jodhpur, his home ground, for his son. Former home minister Gulab Chand Kataria said during a press conference in Udaipur on Friday that Gehlot will be removed by the Congress central leadership for failing to win even his pocket borough.

“I am sure the Congress high command will ask him to go,” Kataria said.

Another senior BJP leader, Rajendra Rathore, said the political winds in the state could blow in some other direction soon. “When a ship begins to sink, its inhabitants jump out. The Congress ship in Rajasthan has sunk with the loss in all 25 (Lok Sabha) seats. I am sure Rajasthan is headed for political change,” he said.

Former education minister Vasudev Devnani also indicated a change in the state government. “Some Congress MLAs are in touch with us. You never know what is there in store for Rajasthan,” he said in Ajmer on Friday.

The Congress has 100 MLAs in a House of 200 members, and the BJP, 73. The Congress government enjoys support of 12 Independent legislators also.

Meanwhile, there were murmurs with the Congress ranks, too, about a possible change of guard in the state.

“It’s a myth that Gehlot saab is a big leader. The party has never won under his leadership. His son, Vaibhav Gehlot, has lost even in Sardarpura, Ashok Gehlot’s constituency,” said a leader on condition of anonymity.

Congress general secretary in charge of Rajasthan, Avinash Pande, however, played down the issue of change of guard in the state.

He said the loss is a collective responsibility of the party and no one individual could be blamed for it.

“We need to sit and introspect on what went wrong – whether there was problem at the level of individuals or whether there was a systemic issue. Don’t jump to conclusion before the discussions,” he said.

Meanwhile, some local TV reports in Rajasthan suggested that the Congress may be considering making Ashok Gehlot a working president. There was however no clarity on who will be his successor.

Election 2019 has smashed the assumption that India is a party-based parliamentary democracy. Yes, India is still notionally a multi-party system, and there indeed are pockets, especially in the south, where regional parties have held on to their suzerainty. But this hold is precarious and slipping by the minute.

An indefatigable leadership

The biggest blow to the party system has ironically been dealt by the biggest beneficiary of Thursday’s stunning verdict: the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The party confounded admirers and critics alike by amassing a majority that surpassed its haul of 282 of 543 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. Yet, the BJP played little role in its own gigantic victory and stood by watching with stars in its eyes as Prime Minister Narendra Modi single-handedly pulverised the Opposition in large parts of the country. It is true that India’s most powerful Prime Minister since Indira Gandhi was expertly aided at every stage of the election campaign, and in the meticulous planning that preceded it, by BJP president Amit Shah. But without Mr. Modi, there could be and would be no Mr. Shah. It was Mr. Modi’s unflagging, ever-present visage, beamed into homes day and night by an adoring TV media, that spun a seductive web into which awestruck citizens walked.

Mr. Shah had announced soon after the BJP’s 2014 victory that the Congress’s days were numbered. The slogan ‘Congress-mukt (Congress-free) Bharat’ seemed outlandish initially, but the BJP, now under an indefatigable leadership that embodied the belief that the ends justified the means, purposefully expanded its footprint, capturing previously out-of-bound territories such as the Northeast through enticements and mass defections. The Congress did show its existence from time to time by registering victories here and there.

But 2019 has proved that the externment will not be long in coming. Notionally the Congress has improved on its pathetic 2014 tally of 44 Lok Sabha seats, but the defeat of party president Rahul Gandhi in Amethi is a warning of bigger catastrophes ahead. There was no reason for Mr. Gandhi to lose: He was contesting from the bastion of the Nehru-Gandhi clan and in his recently enhanced capacity as party chief he was a potential Prime Minister. Under normal circumstances, this fact alone would have appealed to Amethi’s voters to the exclusion of other attractions.

After US President Donald Trump, French president Emmanuel Macron late on Friday congratulated Prime Minister Narendra Modi over landslide victory in Lok Sabha polls. The French foreign ministry said that both the countries would together consolidate the security of their nations.

After US President Donald Trump, French president Emmanuel Macron late on Friday congratulated Prime Minister Narendra Modi over landslide victory in Lok Sabha polls. The French foreign ministry said that both the countries would together consolidate the security of their nations.

“We will continue to work together to consolidate the security of our nations, secure stability in the world, and promote sustainable development as well as exchanges between our youth,” spokesperson of the ministry of France’s foreign affairs said.

On Friday, Trump and PM Modi agreed to meet at the G-20 Summit in Japan next month as both the leaders pledged to further strengthen the US-India strategic partnership and build on the achievements of the last two years. 

Trump telephoned Modi to congratulate him on the historic electoral victory in the Lok Sabha polls, the White House said.

Prime Minister Modi on Thursday led his Bharatiya Janata Party to a landmark victory for a second five-year term in office, winning 302 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

“The leaders look forward to seeing one another at the G-20 Summit in Osaka, where the US, India, and Japan will hold a trilateral meeting to pursue their shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific,” the White House said.

The G-20 Summit meeting is slated for June 28 and 29.

China is flexing its muscles in the South China Sea (SCS) which serves as a passage for annual trade worth USD 3.5 trillion. The US and China are locked in a tussle for the commercial control of the SCS. 

China claims almost all of the strategic SCS with Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam pushing competing claims to parts of the resource-rich maritime region. The US, Japan and India do not have any territorial claims there.

The US and India have made enormous strides together which include the expansion of bilateral defence cooperation and combined military exercises, the historic civil nuclear deal, the nearly six-fold increase in US-India trade, the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative and the designation of India as a Major Defence Partner.

With the Lok Sabha poll results out, attention has shifted to the likely shape of PM Modi’s new team. It’s not just officers and journalists who are speculating about the shape of PM Narendra Modi’s new council of ministers which is likely to be sworn in next week. Even ministers in the outgoing government seem to be apprehensive about their return after BJP’s landslide win.

It is widely believed that after the BJP’s stunning election victory, the party chief and political strategist Amit Shah, who has made his debut in the Lok Sabha, will earn his reward in the form of a high-profile ministry.
A call on Shah’s new role can be tricky because of the transformation he brought about in BJP, turning what was a languid organisation into a relentless poll machine. There are doubts whether an effective substitute can be found.
New faces or old?
Reports say, the new council of ministers is likely to be different from the earlier one with some of the old faces either retiring from politics due to health and other factors or being replaced by a younger lot. Plus, leaders from states like West Bengal, where the BJP has made inroads and hopes to do well in future (assembly polls in the state are due in 2021), could be rewarded with a berth in the ministry.
What will allies get?
While the BJP doesn’t need outside support, some NDA allies are likely to figure in the cabinet, especially since the Lok Sabha polls may be over but the next round of assembly polls isn’t too far (Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand go to polls this year and UP in 2022).