‘Cases to dip to pre-2nd wave level by early July’

Express News Service
NEW DELHI:  The second Covid-19 wave has touched a peak in mid- May and the number of cases is expected to climb down by early July, a mathematical model developed by scientists at IIT indicated. The virus curve, the model shows, may touch the early February level with around 12,780 new infections (a sevenday average) recorded from around July 3.

On Sunday, India registered 2,40,842 new cases, the lowest since April 17 when 2.34 lakh cases were recorded in a day. India’s total active caseload has decreased to 28,05,399 on Sunday, which is a net decline of 1,18,001 in the previous 24 hours. The Covid-19 cases, which started to rise in February, had breached the 1-lakh mark by April 7.

It reached over two lakh daily cases in the next 10 days and three lakh daily case by April 24. New infections (seven-day average) reached a peak on May 8 at 3.9 lakh cases while active infections on May 13 at 37.2 lakh cases. The Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach (SUTRA) model, authored by IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal, deputy chief integrated defence staff (Med) Lt Gen Madhuri Kanitkar and IIT Hyderabad Prof Mathukumalli Vidyasagar, shows Covid cases in most high-burden states have now stabilised.

“Tamil Nadu’s peak has advanced further thanks to lockdown that brought the contact rate down by more than 20%. West Bengal lockdown also seems to have helped very significantly,” Prof Agrawal said. He said the model was data-based and the estimated values of parameters were also purely based on data.