IMF Warns of Gulf Slowdown, Yet India Seeks $500B Arab Deals

The International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook warns that wars in the Middle East and a blocked Hormuz Strait could push the Gulf and Central Asian region into a -0.3% growth in 2026, down from 3.7% in 2025. Small‑oil producers such as Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain could see GDP shrinkages of 16.7%, 16%, 15.6% and 11.3% respectively. However, the IMF also predicts a sharp rebound in 2027 with growth rates of 19% in Iraq, 18.8% in Qatar, 17.1% in Kuwait and 13.9% in Bahrain. In this context, India’s push to raise Indo‑Arab trade to $500 billion, highlighted by the upcoming 2026 Conclave, offers a potential outlet for Arab capital looking for stable, high‑return opportunities.