Bear scenario sees gold slipping to $3,400‑$3,900, silver to $45‑$55 by year‑end

Monarch PMS also outlines a "bear case" with a 20 % chance of occurring if the Federal Reserve raises rates again in September, crude oil prices keep falling and inflation eases to a point where demand weakens. In that adverse environment, gold would be pressured to a range of $3,400‑$3,900 per ounce, and silver could retreat to $45‑$55 per ounce by the end of 2026. Higher real yields on Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities would make bond investments more attractive relative to non‑yielding gold, further suppressing demand.