El Niño Poses Bigger Threat to 2027 Indian Economy, Says Analyst

Shantanu Sengupta warned that the El Niño phenomenon could present a larger risk to India’s 2027 outlook than many market participants anticipate. While the 2023 event had limited impact, the upcoming cycle may be more pronounced, especially for the monsoon‑dependent agricultural sector.

He expects the Kharif (summer) crops to experience only a modest effect, but a weaker Rabi (winter) harvest could arise if reservoir levels remain low. Existing grain inventories may cushion price shocks in the short term, yet prolonged deficits could reignite inflationary pressures.

Sengupta concluded that the El Niño risk will likely materialise later in the year, stressing the need for vigilant monitoring of climate patterns and their macro‑economic implications.