Author: News Analysis India

 In the heat of election campaigning in Uttar Pradesh, the formal introduction of another member of the Nehru-Gandhi family, Avantika Nehru, went largely unnoticed.

Congress’ political arithmetic notwithstanding, Avantika Nehru’s political foray is significant in another way as it marked the end of a bitter family feud triggered three decades ago when Arun Nehru, a cousin of Rajiv Gandhi, rebelled and left the Congress.

But all that is history now. The hatchet was buried this week at an election meeting in Rae Bareli when Congress general secretary for UP East Priyanka Gandhi introduced Avantika Nehru to her mother’s constituency.

“Avantika Nehru is my sister and the daughter of former MP, the late Arun Nehru,” Priyanka Gandhi said at the election meeting in Sareni.

In the general election of 1980, Indira Gandhi won from two constituencies, Medak in Andhra Pradesh and Rae Bareli in UP. At the time, she took the decision of vacating Medak for her nephew Arun Nehru, who was a successful corporate executive, and decided to contest from the UP seat.

After Indira Gandhi’s assassination, Arun Nehru went on to become the internal security minister under the Rajiv Gandhi-led government. However, the bonhomie between Rajiv Gandhi and Nehru ended after the Bofors scandal, which tarnished the image of the Congress government.

After the fallout, Nehru joined hands with VP Singh and the Congress lost power in 1989. In 1999 Lok Sabha polls, Nehru was fielded by the BJP against Gandhi family loyalist Satish Sharma.

It was a speech delivered by Priyanka Gandhi, who canvassed for votes for the party during the election, which is said to have turned the tables in Sharma’s favour. In a scathing attack on Nehru, she said: “I have a complaint against you. A man who committed treachery while he was in my father’s ministry, who stabbed a brother in the back — answer me — how did you let such a man in here? How did he dare come here?”

Arun Nehru lost the elections to Sharma, who later vacated the seat for Sonia Gandhi. Years later, the two families did reconcile. When Arun Nehru was admitted to a Gurgaon hospital in 2013, the Gandhis visited him. When he passed away, his pyre was lit by Priyanka Gandhi’s son Rehan.

Coming full circle, it was a déjà vu of sorts when Priyanka Gandhi introduced Arun Nehru’s daughter in the election meeting of Rae Bareli.

BJP has fielded former Congress MLA Dinesh Singh against Sonia Gandhi. Not long back, Singh was a close associate of Priyanka Gandhi, but defected to the saffron fold last year.

In Rae Bareli, Priyanka Gandhi said, “People who touched my feet and said Didi we will always stand by your side, are contesting against my mother today.” One can’t help but reminisce her famous speech of 1999 that turned the fortunes of Arun Nehru.

One fallout of conducting the Lok Sabha polls in seven phases is that political parties, through their own commissioned exit polls, start getting an idea of how they are performing.

Accordingly, they recalibrate their campaign messaging in different phases, as BJP has been doing – from Pulwama to Pragya Thakur.

The media also conducts its own exit polls and adjusts its political commentary. All this seeps into the larger political grapevine – after the first few phases, a prominent news TV anchor suggested that the real election might begin after May 23.

No wonder there is a growing murmur after the first four phases of polling – possibly based on exit poll trends – that the BJP is not doing as well as expected even though it is expected to remain the single largest party. The opposition, the mahagathbandhan, is doing reasonably well in Uttar Pradesh where the BJP’s losses could be significant. This was further reinforced by Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati and Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh sharing a stage and sending a clear message of vote transfer among their voters.

The BJP is worried about this.

If BJP loses about 40  of the 80 seats in UP, as against the 71 seats it bagged in 2014 amidst a Modi wave, there is a real possibility that its overall tally gets confined to 180-190 and the NDA fails to cross the 220-225 mark.

This could happen realistically if the Congress manages to win an additional 40 to 50 seats in Hindi-speaking states as well as Gujarat, where it has largely been a one-on-one fight with the BJP.

So what happens if the NDA is confined to around 220 seats? In that event, Modi will try to woo the southern states where K. Chandrashekhar Rao of TRS, YRS Congress’ Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy or Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal could be new potential allies for the BJP. Modi may even try to win over the DMK, which is presently a part of the UPA.

Ahead of his visit to Rajasthan to address poll rallies today, Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared a brief clip of his last meeting in Jaipur on Twitter and said, “it is clear the state wants BJP”.

In the clip, people are seen waving at the prime minister with flashlight of their mobile phones on. 

“Looking forward to visiting Rajasthan today. Will be campaigning in Hindaun, Sikar and Bikaner. In order to gauge the mood of the state, here’s a short clip from my last rally in Jaipur. It is clear people of the sate want BJP,” Mr Modi tweeted.

At the end of the fourth phase of polling, Congress is confident of crossing the three-digit mark in the 17th Lok Sabha polls.

According to an internal assessment, Congress will significantly improve its tally compared to the 2014 election when it bagged just 44 of the 543 seats. That was its lowest tally in any Lok Sabha election, beating the previous low of 114 seats in 1999.

In 2014, Congress failed to open its account in 13 states, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi and Odisha, and could not cross the double-digit mark in any state. It did not get Leader of Opposition status as it failed to win 10% of total seats of House.

On the other hand, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) became the first political party to secure an absolute majority on its own in 30 years by winning 282 seats.

The Congress’s evaluation for 2019 indicates gains in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab. But it is not expecting a good showing in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Delhi and the North-East.

The internal assessment is based on feedback from the ground in several Lok Sabha constituencies across the country, a Congress functionary familiar with matters said. The party is expected to revise its assessment after the final phase of polling on May 19. Votes will be counted on May 23. On record, Congress said people were voting for change and the fall of the BJP government at Centre was imminent, as evident from statements of PM Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah.

“Our first and foremost assessment comes from Modi’s desperation and nervousness… Sometimes, he indulges in abusive language against Congress president Rahul Gandhi, second day he says he is going to bring down an elected government in West Bengal through defection, and on the third day… he and his home ministry indulges in absolute rubbish of questioning Rahul Gandhi’s citizenship,” party’s chief spokesperson Randeep Singh Surjewala said. “It seems he is trying to hold on to every straw to somehow stop his boat from sinking.” Surjewala said the party’s second assessment comes from the observations of workers on the ground. “That is extremely encouraging and shows massive gains for Congress and allies and consequent losses for BJP,” he said.

Hours after BSP chief Mayawati accused the Congress of colluding with the BJP, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra said she would rather die than benefit the BJP in this election. “I’ve not said I am putting weak candidates. I’ve said very clearly Congress is fighting this election on its own strength. I’d rather die than benefit BJP. We have chosen candidates that are either fighting very strongly or cutting BJP votes,” she said. 

One soldier was killed and another injured in a gunfight today at a central force base in Bagnan in West Bengal’s Howrah district. Central forces have been deployed in the region ahead of Lok Sabha polls for the Howrah constituency, which votes on May 6 in the sixth phase of elections. 

Prime Ministry Narendra Modi attacked the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance on Tuesday and said that they worried about the BJP’s popularity among the masses.

Addressing a rally at Ambedkar Nagar near Ayodhya, PM Modi said, “Whenever they see the support for me among the people, the blood pressure of SP and BSP shoots up.”

The Prime Minister accused the SP and BSP of using BR Ambedkar and Ram Manohar Lohia’s name for political gains and not implementing their ideals. “Be it SP, BSP or Congress, they all did the same. Behen ji (Mayawati) used the name of Babasaheb Ambedkar but her actions were opposite to what he stood for. SP used the name of Lohia ji but they destroyed the law and order situation in UP when they were in power,” Modi said.

He continued to target the opposition on tackling terrorism and asserted that only a strong government at the Centre can fight terror. He said that the terror factories across the border are hoping for a weak government in India.

“From our neighbourhood, all they do is export terror and terrorism. It is important for a government that can tackle terrorism to come to power,” said PM Modi.

Samajwadi chief Akhilesh Yadav and BSP supremo Mayawati have been involved in a war of words with the Prime Minister in the last few weeks. Akhilesh Yadav had demanded a “72 hour” ban for Modi’s speech at a poll rally in Bengal where he claimed 40 Trinamool MLAs are in touch with him.

The Election Commission has recently barred several leaders including Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Punjab Minister Navjot Singh Sidhu from campaigning for 72 hours due to poll code violations.

A day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed that about 40 Trinamool Congress MLAs were in touch with him and would switch sides once the BJPwins the Lok Sabha elections, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee on Tuesday called him “shameless” and that his candidature should be cancelled for encouraging horse-trading during elections.

Advertising

Addressing an election rally at Bhadreswar in Hooghly district, she described Modi’s remarks as  “unconstitutional” and said, “Yesterday he came here to hold election rallies. He said that about 40 MLAs are in touch with him. He is a shameless Prime Minister. A Prime Minister is encouraging horse-trading. His party is not like our party. His party is full of thieves which functions only on money. Our party functions on the sacrifices of our party workers. I have no worries. If one worker leaves then I will create one lakh more workers. For this reason, his candidature must be cancelled.”

“Holding a constitutional position, he is violating the constitution by making unconstitutional statements. He has no right to remain the PM,” Banerjee said.

Silence speaks louder than words. And that was evident at a recent rally of the prime minister when his Bihar ally Chief Minister Nitish Kumar remained seated while Narendra Modi led his supporters in fervently chanting ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai” and “Vande Mataram”.

The video of the rally at Darbhanga that has gone viral shows Modi and others standing and repeatedly raising the BJP’s battle cry “Vande Mataram…” while thrusting their clenched fists into the air. Those following the lead included LJP chief and union minister Ram Vilas Paswan.

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will be campaigning in favour of Union minister and BJP nominee for Amethi Lok Sabha seat Smriti Irani on Tuesday.

Sub-District Magistrate, Gauriganj, Amit Kumar told PTI Monday that the chief minister will address a public meeting organised by the BJP at Maurya Ki Bag under Jagdishpur assembly segment here Tuesday.

Adityanath had attended the nomination procession of Ms Irani but left Amethi soon after.

Ms Irani had unsuccessfully contested the 2014 Lok Sabha election from Amethi against Congress president Rahul Gandhi. This time she is again pitted against the Congress president.

Amethi has traditionally been a Congress bastion. Barring 1977 and 1998, it has always elected a Congress candidate.

Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav on Tuesday attacked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for claiming that 40 Trinamool Congress MLAs were in touch with him. He said Mr. Modi should be “banned for 72 years” for his “shameful” speech.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) recently barred several leaders, including Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Punjab Minister Navjot Singh Sidhu from campaigning for 72 hours due to Model Code of Conduct (MCC) violations.

“Vikas (development) is asking… Did you hear the shameful speech of Pradhanji (PM)? After losing the faith of 125 crore countrymen, he (Modi) is now relying on the unethical assurance of defection allegedly given by the 40 MLAs,” he tweeted.

“This reflects his (Modi) black money mentality. He should be banned for not 72 hours but for 72 years,” he said.

On the campaign trail in West Bengal on Monday, Mr. Modi said, “Didi, even your MLAs will desert you when the results of this election are out. Your 40 MLAs are in touch with me and all your MLAs will desert you once the BJP wins the election. Political ground has slipped from under your feet.”

“With just a handful of seats, ‘Didi’ you can’t reach Delhi. Delhi is far away. Going to Delhi is just an excuse. Her real intention is to politically establish her nephew,” he had said.

The Trinamool leadership was quick to hit back, accusing the Prime Minister of horse-trading and saying it would complain to the ECI about it.