Much at stake in U.P. final rounds

Express News Service

VARANASI:  With five phases of UP polls over, the stage is set for a more fierce battle to win the Purvanchal — the eastern fort — in the sixth and seventh phases on March 3 and 7, respectively. With voters having sealed the fate of candidates in over 290 seats spread across 58 districts of UP, Purvanchal has the remaining 111 seats up for grabs in the two final phases covering CM Yogi Adityanath’s bastion of Gorakhpur and Modi’s stronghold of Varanasi besides Azamgarh, the pocketborough of Yadav clan.

With no palpable wave in favour of any particular party in more or less a bipolar contest between the BJP and the SP, the final phases are expected to witness the presence of Bahujan Samaj Party in some pockets, giving a triangular flavour to the poll battle.

In the 1990s, eastern UP witnessed the emergence of players like SP and BSP which had woven their discourse around ‘social justice’. Both the SP and BSP stalwarts — Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kanshi Ram respectively— succeeded in convincing the OBCs and SCs that the respective parties would improve their condition. However, failing to adhere to their ideologies firmly, with passage of time, bahubalis or mafia dons started calling the shots in the political landscape of eastern UP.

However, during the last five years, the might of bahubalis has seen some depletion due to the re-alignment of communities in favour of the parties of their choice. The Pasmanda Ansari Muslims, who basically belong to weavers’ community thriving in districts like Mau, Varanasi, Mirzapur, Bhadohi and Azamgarh, are still in search of a party that can provide them development. They sound divided over voting for their traditional identity-related party, the SP, which has angered them for not being given representation in tickets allocation this time.

The issues like stray cattle, price rise and unemployment are ringing in the ground only for those who have decided to vote for a change. Local problems do not have that much of an impact on the ground. Development, law and order and the benefit of welfare schemes seem to have slightly higher resonance on the ground.

Moreover, in some places, polarisation against the Muslim-Yadav combination, which can be seen consolidating firmly in favour of Samajwadi Party across the state, is imminent. In 2017, BJP had won 75 of the 111 seats in the region, its allies Apna Dal (S) had won 5 and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), which opened its account in alliance with saffron brigade, walked away with four seats. SP had won 13, BSP 11 and Congress could bag just one seat. 

Big rallies being addressed by PM Modi himself coupled with those addressed by Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath, in this region influence the voters. While Adityanath and Shah are reassuring the voters to take development and law and order to even higher notches, Modi is striking an emotional connect in a style quintessential to him.

However, the popularity of PM Modi fails to move the voters in Azamgarh, which was won by Mulayam Singh Yadav despite the Modi wave in 2014 followed by Akhilesh Yadav in 2019. Here the BJP could won just one seat of Phulpur Pawai out of 10 Assembly segments. Rest nine assembly seats were taken away by SP (5) and BSP(4).

The BSP had a strong base here in the late 1980s and 1990s and was the biggest challenger to the Modi wave in 2014 by coming second in 34 UP Lok Sabha constituencies — many of them in eastern UP. The party, relatively silent this time with depleted leadership strength, is banking upon the support of Muslims and non-Jatav Dalits, smaller sub-castes and the Brahmins among the upper castes. Mayawati is again betting on the Brahmin-Muslim-Dalit combination which had won her power in 2007.

The remaining stretch of the UP campaign in Purvanchal is a no-holds barred fight between the three principal players. Much is at stake for every political party and its leaders: the political survival of the BSP and of Mayawati, the credibility of Akhilesh Yadav and performance of the saffron camp and PM Modi.

Modi and Yogi hold the fort for BJPYogi Adityanath’s influence is strong in the region from Balrampur to Gorakhpur thanks to Hindutva politics. PM Modi’s presence in Varanasi helps the BJP in the adjoining districts. While Adityanath and Shah are reassuring the voters to take development and law and order to even higher notches, Modi is striking an emotional connect