Qatar’s top energy official has issued a chilling forecast: Middle East warfare persisting just days longer could force Gulf oil giants into force majeure declarations, crippling exports and rocketing crude prices to $150 per barrel in mere weeks. Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi delivered this sobering message in an interview with the Financial Times, as Iran’s aggressive strikes intensify regional chaos.
Al-Kaabi explained that without safe passage through key waterways, exporters face tough choices. ‘They’ll have to declare force majeure or risk paying out massive legal claims,’ he noted. Natural gas could see prices balloon to $40/MMBtu, a fourfold surge. Qatar itself has already pulled the trigger after a drone attack on its Ras Laffan LNG facility, prompting an urgent force majeure and halting operations at the nation’s flagship plant.
Market tremors are evident. Brent crude posted a 20% weekly gain, trading at $89+ per barrel, while WTI climbed 25% to $86—their peaks since spring 2024. Shippers are balking amid reports of 10+ vessels hit and insurance costs exploding, further choking supply lines.
The minister stressed recovery timelines: even post-ceasefire, reloading Qatar’s scant available LNG carriers—six or seven out of 128—will drag on for weeks or months due to supply chain snarls. Iran’s barrages, targeting refineries in Bahrain and beyond, have lit the fuse. This scenario threatens not just energy prices but global inflation and economic stability, demanding urgent diplomatic intervention to avert catastrophe.