Qatar’s top energy official has issued a chilling forecast: Middle East war dragging on for days could force Gulf oil giants into force majeure declarations, crippling exports and rocketing crude to $150 per barrel in mere weeks. Saad al-Kaabi, in an exclusive Financial Times interview, warned of natural gas prices exploding to $40/MMBtu.
‘Expect all Gulf exporters to declare force majeure soon if disruptions continue,’ al-Kaabi said. Failing to do so risks massive legal payouts down the line. Tanker blockages in key straits would amplify the crisis, with oil doubling and LNG costs multiplying fourfold within two to three weeks.
Markets are already in turmoil. Brent crude jumped 20% weekly, trading at $89+ per barrel Friday after a sharp 3% rise. WTI posted a 25% gain, reaching $86—peaks not seen since spring 2024.
The trigger? An Iranian drone attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, the nation’s largest. Force majeure is active as teams evaluate damage. Recovery might take ‘weeks to months’ due to logistics snags, with just a handful of Qatar’s 128 LNG ships ready to sail.
Insurers are hiking premiums amid reports of strikes on 10+ vessels, deterring shippers from the Gulf. Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones, targeting sites like a Bahrain refinery, has supercharged price volatility. For energy-dependent nations, this scenario spells inflation, shortages, and economic pain.