As the IMF lauds Pakistan’s compliance with its bailout terms, ground realities tell a different story. Dawn’s analysis uncovers soaring poverty rates and widening income gaps, questioning the sustainability of ongoing economic adjustments.
Macro indicators like fiscal consolidation and current account surplus offer some optimism. Prolonged deficits and reserve erosion had pushed the economy to the brink, making these steps noteworthy. However, improvements rely on import curbs, remittance inflows, and bilateral debt extensions rather than robust exports.
Government finances remain strained by revenue gaps, with a super tax court decision providing short-term breather. Experts call for tax base expansion to secure long-term fiscal health. Progress on IMF structural benchmarks crawls, essential for bridging stability to growth.
Governance diagnostics from IMF underline institutional reforms’ role. Alarming stats show 70 million below poverty threshold of 8,484 rupees monthly—barely covering essentials. Official surveys peg poverty at 29%, a decade-plus peak versus 22% in 2019, per Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal.
Gini coefficient at 32.7 signals worst inequality in three decades, as inflation and slowdown crush household spending. Joblessness rises to 7.1%, hitting labor sectors hard. The adjustment pain disproportionately affects vulnerable groups; parallel focus on inclusive growth is vital for endurance.