Every budget season, the Indian stock market holds its breath. Will it soar or stumble after the big reveal? Historical data from the past 15 budgets provides compelling insights into post-event trajectories for Sensex, Nifty, and beyond.
SBI Securities’ comprehensive analysis reveals a strong short-term positivity. Post-budget week one saw Sensex rising in 11/15 cases with 2.10% average returns; only four dips averaged 2.05%. Nifty outperformed slightly, gaining in 12/15 weeks at 2.04%, with three losses at 2.65%.
Zooming to the three-month mark, Sensex notched nine wins (6.77% avg gain) versus six losses (5.28% avg). Nifty matched with nine positives at 7.40% and six negatives at 5.46%.
Smaller segments tell a vibrant story. One-week post-budget, Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices surged 11 times each—3.1% and 3.3% averages—against four losses near 3%.
Over three months, midcaps excelled (10/15 positives, 8.67% avg; 5 losses at 7.77%), while smallcaps showed higher volatility: seven gains at 14.54% but eight losses at 8.77%.
What drives this? Budgets often inject policy clarity, sectoral boosts, and spending promises that fuel market sentiment. Largecaps offer stability, midcaps balance, and smallcaps high-reward potential.
Investors take note: while 73% short-term Sensex wins signal optimism, diversify and watch macros. The data empowers smarter plays amid budget hype.
